Once again, it's time for the ECAC Playoff Permutations! St. Lawrence
has,
well, wrapped up last place, but there is plenty of jockeying left
for the
other positions, as first through fourth are currently separated by
two
points, fifth through seventh by two points, and eighth through
eleventh by
four.
Going into the final weekend of league play, here's a breakdown of
where
each team in the ECAC could finish. As always, I'm greatly indebted
to
John Whelan's excellent playoff possibilities script at
http://www.elynah.com/tbrw/2019/ecac.cgiframe.shtml [1]
For each ECAC team, I've listed the following:
THIS WEEKEND: The team's weekend games, its last two of the season.
ON THEIR OWN: The highest the team could finish with no help from the
competition. Generally, this involves a weekend sweep.
BEST CASE: The highest the team could finish if everything goes
right.
WORST CASE: The lowest the team could finish if everything goes
wrong.
This generally involves getting swept while teams nearby in the
standings win.
TIEBREAKERS: How the team would fare if they finished the season tied
with
some other team which is currently close (i.e. within 4 points) in
the
standings. Note that there may be cases in which Team A "could win or
lose" the tiebreaker against Team B, depending on whether there are
more than just those two teams tied. For instance, Dartmouth wins the
head-to-head tiebreaker against Yale with a 2-0 record; however, in
a
three-way tie involving these two and Brown, Dartmouth would
actually
be seeded lower than Yale. If a listed tiebreaker result depends on
more than just those two teams being tied, it is marked with an
asterisk:
Dartmouth could win or lose* against Yale
For two or more teams tied in the standings, the ECAC tiebreakers
are:
1. Head-to-head record in ECAC games (non-conference meetings, such
as in
tournaments, do not count).
2. League wins.
3. Record against the top four teams in the conference.
4. Record against the top eight teams in the conference.
5. Goal differential (net goals) head-to-head.
6. Goal differential against the top four teams in the conference.
7. Goal differential against the top eight teams in the conference.
Note that if the tie is among three or more teams, the tiebreaking
steps are
used in order until a team, or multiple teams, is/are separated from
the
"pack". Once that happens, the process starts all over to break the
remaining
ties. For example, when the above steps are applied to a four-way
tie, once
one team is separated out leaving a three-way tie, the procedure goes
back to
the first step with the three remaining tied teams.
Without further ado, here's how the final weekend looks:
Cornell:
THIS WEEKEND: At St. Lawrence, at Clarkson.
ON THEIR OWN: The Big Red takes first place with a sweep.
BEST CASE: First.
WORST CASE: Falls to fifth with two losses if Quinnipiac does not get
swept, Harvard gets at least two points, and Yale wins twice.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats Harvard; loses to Quinnipiac; could win or lose
against Clarkson; could win* or lose against Yale.
Qunnipiac:
THIS WEEKEND: At Brown, at Yale.
ON THEIR OWN: Two wins will lock up second place.
BEST CASE: Takes first with a sweep if Cornell does not win twice.
WORST CASE: Would finish fifth if they get swept, Harvard does not
lose twice, Clarkson gets at least two points, and Yale also beats
Princeton.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats Cornell; could win or lose against Harvard,
Clarkson, and Yale.
Harvard:
THIS WEEKEND: At Rensselaer, at Union.
ON THEIR OWN: Clinches third with a pair of wins.
BEST CASE: Climbs to first with a sweep if Quinnipiac does not win
twice and Cornell gets no more than two points.
WORST CASE: Ends up in fifth place if they get swept, Clarkson gets
at least two points, and Yale sweeps.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats Yale; loses to Cornell; could win or lose against
Quinnipiac and Clarkson.
Clarkson:
THIS WEEKEND: Colgate, Cornell.
ON THEIR OWN: Three points will give the Golden Knights fourth place.
BEST CASE: Wraps up first with a sweep if neither Quinnipiac nor
Harvard gets more than two points.
WORST CASE: Drops to fifth with two losses if Yale gets at least
three points.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats Brown; could win or lose against Cornell,
Quinnipiac, Harvard, and Yale; could win or lose* against Dartmouth.
Yale:
THIS WEEKEND: Princeton, Quinnipiac.
ON THEIR OWN: Gets fifth with three points.
BEST CASE: Finishes second with a pair of wins if Cornell, Quinni-
piac, and Harvard all get swept.
WORST CASE: Would slide to seventh if they lose twice, Brown gets at
least three points, and Dartmouth gets at least two points.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats Brown; loses to Harvard; could win or lose against
Quinnipiac and Clarkson; could win or lose* against Cornell; could
win*
or lose against Dartmouth.
Brown:
THIS WEEKEND: Quinnipiac, Princeton.
ON THEIR OWN: A sweep guarantees sixth place.
BEST CASE: Rises to fifth with two wins if Yale gets no more than one
point.
WORST CASE: Would finish ninth with two losses if Union and Colgate
both sweep and Dartmouth does not lose to Rensselaer.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats Dartmouth and Union; loses to Clarkson and Yale;
could win* or lose against Colgate.
Dartmouth:
THIS WEEKEND: At Union, at Rensselaer.
ON THEIR OWN: Clinches seventh by not losing to Union or by beating
Rensselaer.
BEST CASE: Would climb to fourth with a sweep if Clarkson loses
twice,
Yale gets two points, and Brown does not win twice. This would set
up a
three-way tie for fourth among Dartmouth, Clarkson, and Yale, with
the
tiebreakers giving Dartmouth fourth place.
WORST CASE: Falls to eighth with two losses if Union does not lose to
Harvard.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats Colgate; loses to Brown and Union; could win or
lose* against Yale; could win* or lose against Clarkson.
Union:
THIS WEEKEND: Dartmouth, Harvard.
ON THEIR OWN: Wraps up eighth with three points.
BEST CASE: Will finish sixth with two wins if Brown loses twice and
Dartmouth does not beat Rensselaer.
WORST CASE: Slides to eleventh place if (you might want to sit down
for this one) they lose twice, with the two losses coming by a total
of six goals or more, Princeton wins twice, Clarkson gets swept,
Yale
beats Quinnipiac, Dartmouth also beats Rensselaer, and Rensselaer
beats
Harvard. And yes, this one could go all the way down to goal differ-
entail against the top 8.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats Dartmouth and Colgate; loses to Brown and
Rensselaer; could win or lose against Princeton.
Colgate:
THIS WEEKEND: At Clarkson, at St. Lawrence.
ON THEIR OWN: A sweep locks up ninth place.
BEST CASE: Gets seventh with a pair of wins if Brown loses twice,
Dartmouth gets at least one point, and Union gets no more than two
points.
WORST CASE: Would fall to eleventh if they get swept, Princeton wins
twice, and Rensselaer gets at least two points.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats Princeton; loses to Dartmouth and Union; could win
or lose against Rensselaer; could win or lose* against Brown.
Rensselaer:
THIS WEEKEND: Harvard, Dartmouth.
ON THEIR OWN: Three points will wrap up tenth.
BEST CASE: Finishes seventh with a sweep if Colgate does not win
twice and Union gets no more than two points.
WORST CASE: Ends up in eleventh with two losses if Princeton gets at
least one win.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats Union; could win or lose against Colgate and
Princeton.
Princeton:
THIS WEEKEND: At Yale, at Brown.
ON THEIR OWN: Has already clinched eleventh and can do no better
without help.
BEST CASE: Climbs to ninth with a sweep if Colgate loses twice and
Rensselaer gets no more than one point.
WORST CASE: Eleventh.
TIEBREAKERS: Loses to Colgate; could win or lose against Union and
Rensselaer.
Bill [log in to unmask]
Links:
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[1] http://www.elynah.com/tbrw/2019/ecac.cgiframe.shtml
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