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43.6667° N 70.2667° W Founded January 1970
2022-2023: LXII
Sunrise: 6:41 a.m.
Sunset: 5:14 p.m.
Civil twilight begins: 6:08 a.m.
Civil twilight ends: 5:43 p.m.
Sun's host constellation: Aquarius
Moon phase: Waning crescent(10% illuminated)
Moonrise: 5:10 a.m.
Moonset: 3:03 p.m. (2/18/23)
Julian date: 2459989.21
'We are an impossibility in an impossible Universe."
-Ray Bradbury
THE BI WEEKLY ASTRONOMER
Friday, February 17, 2023
A Kinder Alien Invasion?
UFO's have yet again become predominant in the collective consciousness of
our anxiety-laden country following the take down of three mysterious
balloons that were spotted milling about in the upper atmosphere. Could
these floating orbs have been deployed by a crafty band of malevolent
aliens who, after having traversed the vast stellar distances, curiously
decided to revert back to 18th century balloon technology? Scientists
tend to think not, of course. Their doubt is not predicated on the belief
that aliens don't exist, but would likely not torment a hapless populace
with balloons.
If you, like many others, often find yourself casting nervous glances into
the wild black yonder, perhaps you could derive comfort from the “Bellicosity
Diminishment Hypothesis.”
This grandly-named hypothesis simply states that any star-faring species
will likely be wiser, kinder and far less xenophobic than any species that
has not yet developed the technology needed to travel interstellar
distances. This assertion is predicated on the substantial archeological
evidence which shows that prehistoric societies were, by and large, far
more violent than most modern societies.
Image credit: Our World in Data <http://ourworldindata.org/>
Historical records also show a tendency toward more peaceful and less
violent behaviour, in both civilian crime rates:
Image credit: Our World in Data <http://ourworldindata.org/>
…and military deaths
Image credit: Our World in Data <http://ourworldindata.org/>
As Steven Pinker said, “Violence has been in decline over long stretches of
time and we may be living in the most peaceful time in our species’
existence.” While this notion might be a hollow comfort to those who’ve
survived a violent crime or are living in a war zone, the statistics seem
to substantiate Pinker’s assertion.
The main idea is that the highly aggressive behaviors that might have
enabled our species to become dominant over our competitors in the distant
past will diminish considerably as we become more literate, intellectually
sophisticated and -websites such as Quora.com- as our capacity for
wide-spread communication and exchange of ideas increases. That capacity
has expanded geometrically, if not exponentially, within the last few
generations. And, yes, despite all these evolutionary changes, one can find
many, many examples of violence, hatred, bigotry and destructive behavior
in our modern day society.
Presumably, this decline will continue as we develop even more
sophisticated space technology that, though now limited to robotic
explorations of the solar system and -hopefully- a resumption of our human
moon missions, will eventually enable humans to embark on interstellar
missions.
If the Bellicosity Diminishment Hypothesis is correct, we will have become
almost serene by the time we embark on our first expedition to the Alpha
Centauri system. Presumably, an alien race capable of visiting us might be
similarly disinclined toward violence, preferring, instead, to either
monitor us without interference or to attempt to engage with us peacefully.
(They could be here already, but, recognizing that such an extraterrestrial
interaction might elicit a violent, xenophobic response, have decided to
keep their distance.)
Is it disappointing to think that so much time will elapse before aliens
will ever come into contact with Earthlings? Well, first, I am convinced
that life abounds in the galaxy and that contact with aliens is inevitable.
So, there is no cause for disappointment. Secondly, the vast separation
distance between stars could well be much to our benefit: perhaps the
immense amount of time needed for a species to develop into an star-faring
race might be about equal to the time the species requires to eradicate its
bellicose instincts.
The vast distances separating the stars might be to every race’s advantage.
“The Bellicosity Diminishment Hypothesis” suggests that only the most
rational and pacifistic alien races ever evolve into interstellar explorers.
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