By request, here are the Playoff Permutations for Atlantic Hockey’s last
weekend. I’m enough of a math geek that I actually enjoy doing stuff like
this –- but I realized a little late that when the first-place team is
separated from the last-place team by only ten points, things get really
ugly really fast.
Going into the final weekend of league play, here's a breakdown of where
each team in Atlantic Hockey could finish. For each AHA team, I've listed
the following:
THIS WEEKEND: The team's weekend game(s), its last one or two of the season.
ON THEIR OWN: The highest the team could finish with no help from the
competition. Generally, this involves a weekend sweep.
BEST CASE: The highest the team could finish if everything goes right.
WORST CASE: The lowest the team could finish if everything goes wrong.
This generally involves getting swept while teams nearby in the
standings win.
TIEBREAKERS: How the team would fare if they finished the season tied with
some other team which is currently close (i.e. within 4 points) in the
standings. Note that there may be cases in which Team A "could win or
lose" the tiebreaker against Team B, depending on whether there are
more than just those two teams tied. For instance, Air Force wins the
head-to-head tiebreaker against Canisius with a 3-1 record (0.750);
however, in a three-way tie involving these two and Army West Point,
Air Force would actually be seeded lower than Canisius. If a listed
tiebreaker result depends on more than just those two teams being
tied, it is marked with an asterisk:
Air Force could win or lose* against Canisius
For two or more teams tied in the standings, the Atlantic Hockey tiebreakers
are:
1. Head-to-head winning percentage in AHA games (non-conference meetings,
such as in tournaments, do not count).
2. League wins.
3. Goal differential (net goals) head-to-head.
4. Goals allowed head-to-head.
5. Head-to-head winning percentage against teams in descending order in
the standings, starting with #1.
6. Goal differential against teams in descending order in the standings,
starting with #1.
Note that if the tie is among three or more teams, the tiebreaking steps are
used in order until a team, or multiple teams, is/are separated from the
"pack". Once that happens, the process starts all over to break the remaining
ties. For example, when the above steps are applied to a four-way tie, once
one team is separated out leaving a three-way tie, the procedure goes back to
the first step with the three remaining tied teams.
Here’s a look at Atlantic Hockey’s final weekend:
Mercyhurst:
THIS WEEKEND: At RIT, at RIT.
ON THEIR OWN: Three points will give the Lakers first place.
BEST CASE: First.
WORST CASE: Finishes second if they lose twice and Canisius gets at
least two points.
TIEBREAKERS: Loses to Canisius.
Canisius:
THIS WEEKEND: Niagara, at Niagara.
ON THEIR OWN: Clinches second with two points on the weekend.
BEST CASE: Rises to first with a pair of wins if Mercyhurst gets no
more than two points.
WORST CASE: Drops to fifth with two losses if Holy Cross wins, Air
Force gets exactly three points, RIT sweeps, and Army West Point does
not win twice. This sets up a three-way tie for third among Canisius,
Holy Cross, and Air Force, with the tiebreakers putting the Golden
Griffins fifth.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats Mercyhurst and Army West Point; could win or lose
against RIT; could win* or lose against Air Force; could win or lose*
against Holy Cross and Robert Morris.
Holy Cross:
THIS WEEKEND: American International.
ON THEIR OWN: Takes fifth place with a win.
BEST CASE: Gets second if they win, Canisius loses twice, Air Force
gets exactly three points, and RIT gets no more than two points.
This sets up a three-way tie for second among Holy Cross, Canisius,
and Air Force, with the tiebreakers giving Holy Cross second.
WORST CASE: Would fall to eighth if they lose, Air Force and Robert
Morris split their games (or tie twice), RIT gets at least two points,
Army gets at least three points, and American International also beats
Bentley. This sets up a three-way tie for sixth among Holy Cross,
Robert Morris, and American International, with the tiebreakers putting
the Crusaders eighth.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats Air Force and Army West Point; loses to Robert
Morris and American International; could win* or lose against Canisius
and RIT.
Air Force:
THIS WEEKEND: At Robert Morris, at Robert Morris.
ON THEIR OWN: Guarantees third with a sweep.
BEST CASE: Finishes second with two wins if Canisius gets no more than
one point.
WORST CASE: Slides to ninth if they lose twice, RIT does not get swept,
Army gets at least two points, and American International and Niagara
both win twice.
TIEBREAKERS: Loses to Holy Cross; could win* or lose against Army West
Point and Niagara; could win or lose* against Canisius, RIT, and
American International.
RIT:
THIS WEEKEND: Mercyhurst, Mercyhurst.
ON THEIR OWN: A sweep wraps up fourth place.
BEST CASE: Would take second with two wins if Canisius gets no more
than one point and Air Force does not sweep.
WORST CASE: Ends up in ninth place with two losses if Robert Morris
and Army each get at least two points and American International and
Niagara each win twice.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats Robert Morris; loses to Niagara; could win or
lose against Canisius; could win* or lose against Air Force; could
win or lose* against Holy Cross, Army West Point, and American
International.
Robert Morris:
THIS WEEKEND: Air Force, Air Force.
ON THEIR OWN: Will clinch fourth place with two wins.
BEST CASE: Climbs to second with a sweep if Canisius loses twice,
Holy Cross wins, RIT gets no more than two points, and Army does not
sweep. This sets up a three-way tie for second among Robert Morris,
Canisius, and Holy Cross, and the tiebreakers would give Robert Morris
second place.
WORST CASE: Finishes tenth if they get swept, Army does not lose
twice, American International gets at least three points, and Niagara
sweeps.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats Holy Cross, American International, Niagara, and
Sacred Heart; loses to RIT; could win* or lose against Canisius; could
win or lose* against Army West Point.
Army West Point:
THIS WEEKEND: Sacred Heart, Sacred Heart.
ON THEIR OWN: Two wins will wrap up sixth place.
BEST CASE: Gets third with a sweep if Holy Cross does not win, RIT
gets no more than two points, and Air Force and Robert Morris split
their games (or tie twice).
WORST CASE: Falls to eleventh with two losses if American Inter-
national gets at least three points and Niagara wins twice.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats Niagara; loses to Canisius and Holy Cross; could
win* or lose against RIT, Robert Morris, and Sacred Heart; could win
or lose* against Air Force and American International.
American International:
THIS WEEKEND: At Holy Cross, at Bentley.
ON THEIR OWN: Will get seventh place with a sweep.
BEST CASE: Clinches fourth with two wins if either Air Force or
Robert Morris sweeps, RIT loses twice, and Army West Point gets no
more than one point.
WORST CASE: Drops to eleventh if they lose twice and Niagara and
Sacred Heart each get at least two points.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats Holy Cross and Sacred Heart; loses to Robert
Morris; could win or lose against Niagara; could win* or lose against
Air Force, RIT, Army West Point, and Bentley.
Niagara:
THIS WEEKEND: At Canisius, Canisius.
ON THEIR OWN: Takes ninth place with a pair of wins.
BEST CASE: Rises to fifth with a sweep if RIT, Robert Morris, and Army
West Point all lose twice and American International gets no more than
two points.
WORST CASE: Would slide to eleventh with two losses if Bentley wins
and Sacred Heart sweeps.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats RIT and Bentley; loses to Robert Morris and Army
West Point; could win or lose against American International and Sacred
Heart; could win or lose* against Air Force
Bentley:
THIS WEEKEND: American International.
ON THEIR OWN: Can do no better than eleventh without help.
BEST CASE: Wraps up ninth place with a win if American International
does not beat Holy Cross, Niagara gets no more than one point, and
Sacred Heart gets no more than two points.
WORST CASE: Finishes eleventh if they lose and Sacred Heart gets at
least one point.
TIEBREAKERS: Loses to Niagara; could win* or lose against Sacred
Heart; could win or lose* against American International.
Sacred Heart:
THIS WEEKEND: At Army West Point, at Army West Point.
ON THEIR OWN: Takes ninth place with a sweep.
BEST CASE: Would jump to seventh with two wins if American Inter-
national gets no more than one point and Niagara gets no more than
two points.
WORST CASE: Ends up in eleventh if they get swept.
TIEBREAKERS: Loses to Robert Morris and American International;
could win or lose against Niagara; could win or lose* against Army
West Point and Bentley.
Bill Fenwick
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