Once again, it's time for the ECAC Playoff Permutations!  Oddly enough,
this year the teams have slotted themselves nicely into three tiers; there
are four teams that can finish in first through fourth, five that can
finish from fifth through ninth, and three that can finish from tenth
through twelfth.  If you love drama, the final ECAC weekend is a little
short of if this year, although it makes things a lot easier to figure out.

Going into the final weekend of league play, here's a breakdown of where
each team in the ECAC could finish.  As always, I'm greatly indebted to
John Whelan's excellent playoff possibilities script at
http://www.elynah.com/tbrw/2018/ecac.cgiframe.shtml


For each ECAC team, I've listed the following:

THIS WEEKEND:  The team's weekend games, its last two of the season.
ON THEIR OWN:  The highest the team could finish with no help from the
       competition.  Generally, this involves a weekend sweep.
BEST CASE:  The highest the team could finish if everything goes right.
WORST CASE:  The lowest the team could finish if everything goes wrong.
       This generally involves getting swept while teams nearby in the
       standings win.
TIEBREAKERS:  How the team would fare if they finished the season tied with
       some other team which is currently close (i.e. within 4 points) in the
       standings.  Note that there may be cases in which Team A "could win or
       lose" the tiebreaker against Team B, depending on whether there are
       more than just those two teams tied.  For instance, Colgate wins the
       head-to-head tiebreaker against Princeton with a 1-0-1 record; however,
       in a four-way tie involving these two, Yale, and Dartmouth, Colgate
       would actually be seeded lower than Princeton.  If a listed tiebreaker
       result depends on more than just those two teams being tied, it is
       marked with an asterisk:

            Colgate could win or lose* against Princeton

For two or more teams tied in the standings, the ECAC tiebreakers are:

1.   Head-to-head record in ECAC games (non-conference meetings, such as in
      tournaments, do not count).
2.   League wins.
3.   Record against the top four teams in the conference.
4.   Record against the top eight teams in the conference.
5.   Goal differential (net goals) head-to-head.
6.   Goal differential against the top four teams in the conference.
7.   Goal differential against the top eight teams in the conference.

Note that if the tie is among three or more teams, the tiebreaking steps are
used in order until a team, or multiple teams, is/are separated from the
"pack".  Once that happens, the process starts all over to break the remaining
ties.  For example, when the above steps are applied to a four-way tie, once
one team is separated out leaving a three-way tie, the procedure goes back to
the first step with the three remaining tied teams.


Without further ado, here's how the final weekend looks:

Cornell:
       THIS WEEKEND:  At Rensselaer, at Union.
       ON THEIR OWN:  Wraps up first place with one point on the weekend.
       BEST CASE:  First.
       WORST CASE:  Will finish second with two losses if Union also beats
       Colgate.
       TIEBREAKERS:  Loses to Union.

Union:
       THIS WEEKEND:  Colgate, Cornell.
       ON THEIR OWN:  One point will clinch second place.
       BEST CASE:  Finishes first with a sweep if Cornell also loses to
       Rensselaer.
       WORST CASE:  Drops to third if they lose twice and Clarkson sweeps.
       TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Cornell; loses to Clarkson.

Clarkson:
       THIS WEEKEND:  Princeton, Quinnipiac.
       ON THEIR OWN:  Clinches third with a pair of wins.
       BEST CASE:  Climbs to second with two wins if Union loses twice.
       WORST CASE:  Falls to fourth with two losses if Harvard gets at least
       one point.
       TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Union; loses to Harvard.

Harvard:
       THIS WEEKEND:  At Brown, at Yale.
       ON THEIR OWN:  Has already wrapped up fourth place and can do no
       better without help.
       BEST CASE:  Takes third with a sweep if Clarkson gets no more than three
       points.
       WORST CASE:  Fourth.
       TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Clarkson and Dartmouth.

Dartmouth:
       THIS WEEKEND:  At Yale, at Brown.
       ON THEIR OWN:  Will guarantee fifth place with a sweep.
       BEST CASE:  Fifth.
       WORST CASE:  Would slide to ninth with two losses if Quinnipiac wins
       twice and Colgate and Princeton each get at least two points.
       TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Quinnipiac; loses to Princeton; could win or lose
       against Colgate and Yale.

Colgate:
       THIS WEEKEND:  At Union, at Rensselaer.
       ON THEIR OWN:  A sweep wraps up sixth place.
       BEST CASE:  Rises to fifth with two wins if Dartmouth does not sweep.
       WORST CASE:  Would finish ninth with two losses if Yale gets at least
       one point, Princeton gets at least two points, and Quinnipiac gets at
       least three points.
       TIEBREAKERS:  Loses to Yale; could win or lose against Dartmouth and
       Quinnipiac; could win or lose* against Princeton.

Yale:
       THIS WEEKEND:  Dartmouth, Harvard.
       ON THEIR OWN:  Clinches seventh with a pair of wins.
       BEST CASE:  Climbs to fifth if they win twice, Dartmouth does not beat
       Brown, and Colgate does not sweep.
       WORST CASE:  Falls to ninth if they lose twice, Princeton does not get
       swept, and Quinnipiac gets at least two points.
       TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Colgate and Quinnipiac; could win or lose against
       Dartmouth and Princeton.

Princeton:
       THIS WEEKEND:  At Clarkson, at St. Lawrence.
       ON THEIR OWN:  Guarantees seventh with two wins.
       BEST CASE:  Would finish fifth with a sweep if Colgate gets no more
       than two points and the Dartmouth-Yale winner loses its other game
       (or if they tie, Dartmouth does not win its other game).
       WORST CASE:  Slides to ninth if they lose twice and Quinnipiac gets
       at least two points.
       TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Dartmouth; could win or lose against Yale and
       Quinnipiac; could win* or lose against Colgate.

Quinnipiac:
       THIS WEEKEND:  At St. Lawrence, at Clarkson.
       ON THEIR OWN:  Has clinched ninth and can do no better without help.
       BEST CASE:  Takes fifth with a sweep if Dartmouth loses twice, Colgate
       gets no more than one point, Princeton gets no more than two points,
       and Yale loses to Harvard.
       WORST CASE:  Ninth.
       TIEBREAKERS:  Loses to Dartmouth and Yale; could win or lose against
       Colgate and Princeton.

Brown:
       THIS WEEKEND:  Harvard, Dartmouth.
       ON THEIR OWN:  Guarantees tenth with a three-point weekend.
       BEST CASE:  Tenth.
       WORST CASE:  Drops to eleventh if they lose twice and Rensselaer
       gets at least two points.
       TIEBREAKERS:   Beats Rensselaer and St. Lawrence.

Rensselaer:
       THIS WEEKEND:  Cornell, Colgate.
       ON THEIR OWN:  One point would give the Engineers eleventh place.
       BEST CASE:  Gets tenth with a sweep if Brown gets no more than two
       points.
       WORST CASE:  Would finish twelfth if they lose twice and St. Lawrence
       wins twice.
       TIEBREAKERS:  Beats St. Lawrence; loses to Brown.

St. Lawrence:
       THIS WEEKEND:  Quinnipiac, Princeton.
       ON THEIR OWN:  Can do no better than twelfth without help.
       BEST CASE:  Finishes eleventh with a sweep if Rensselaer loses twice.
       WORST CASE:  Twelfth.
       TIEBREAKERS:  Loses to Brown and Rensselaer.


Bill Fenwick
[log in to unmask]