Thank you very much.
On 2/20/2018 10:10 AM, Bill Fenwick wrote:
> By request, here are the Playoff Permutations for Atlantic Hockey's last
> weekend. I'm enough of a math geek that I actually enjoy doing stuff
> like
> this -- but I realized a little late that when the first-place team is
> separated from the last-place team by only ten points, things get really
> ugly really fast.
>
> Going into the final weekend of league play, here's a breakdown of where
> each team in Atlantic Hockey could finish. For each AHA team, I've
> listed
> the following:
>
> THIS WEEKEND: The team's weekend game(s), its last one or two of the
> season.
> ON THEIR OWN: The highest the team could finish with no help from the
> competition. Generally, this involves a weekend sweep.
> BEST CASE: The highest the team could finish if everything goes right.
> WORST CASE: The lowest the team could finish if everything goes wrong.
> This generally involves getting swept while teams nearby in the
> standings win.
> TIEBREAKERS: How the team would fare if they finished the season tied
> with
> some other team which is currently close (i.e. within 4 points)
> in the
> standings. Note that there may be cases in which Team A "could
> win or
> lose" the tiebreaker against Team B, depending on whether there are
> more than just those two teams tied. For instance, Air Force
> wins the
> head-to-head tiebreaker against Canisius with a 3-1 record (0.750);
> however, in a three-way tie involving these two and Army West
> Point,
> Air Force would actually be seeded lower than Canisius. If a
> listed
> tiebreaker result depends on more than just those two teams being
> tied, it is marked with an asterisk:
>
> Air Force could win or lose* against Canisius
>
> For two or more teams tied in the standings, the Atlantic Hockey
> tiebreakers
> are:
>
> 1. Head-to-head winning percentage in AHA games (non-conference
> meetings,
> such as in tournaments, do not count).
> 2. League wins.
> 3. Goal differential (net goals) head-to-head.
> 4. Goals allowed head-to-head.
> 5. Head-to-head winning percentage against teams in descending order in
> the standings, starting with #1.
> 6. Goal differential against teams in descending order in the
> standings,
> starting with #1.
>
> Note that if the tie is among three or more teams, the tiebreaking
> steps are
> used in order until a team, or multiple teams, is/are separated from the
> "pack". Once that happens, the process starts all over to break the
> remaining
> ties. For example, when the above steps are applied to a four-way
> tie, once
> one team is separated out leaving a three-way tie, the procedure goes
> back to
> the first step with the three remaining tied teams.
>
>
> Here's a look at Atlantic Hockey's final weekend:
>
> Mercyhurst:
> THIS WEEKEND: At RIT, at RIT.
> ON THEIR OWN: Three points will give the Lakers first place.
> BEST CASE: First.
> WORST CASE: Finishes second if they lose twice and Canisius
> gets at
> least two points.
> TIEBREAKERS: Loses to Canisius.
>
> Canisius:
> THIS WEEKEND: Niagara, at Niagara.
> ON THEIR OWN: Clinches second with two points on the weekend.
> BEST CASE: Rises to first with a pair of wins if Mercyhurst
> gets no
> more than two points.
> WORST CASE: Drops to fifth with two losses if Holy Cross wins, Air
> Force gets exactly three points, RIT sweeps, and Army West Point
> does
> not win twice. This sets up a three-way tie for third among
> Canisius,
> Holy Cross, and Air Force, with the tiebreakers putting the Golden
> Griffins fifth.
> TIEBREAKERS: Beats Mercyhurst and Army West Point; could win or
> lose
> against RIT; could win* or lose against Air Force; could win or
> lose*
> against Holy Cross and Robert Morris.
>
> Holy Cross:
> THIS WEEKEND: American International.
> ON THEIR OWN: Takes fifth place with a win.
> BEST CASE: Gets second if they win, Canisius loses twice, Air
> Force
> gets exactly three points, and RIT gets no more than two points.
> This sets up a three-way tie for second among Holy Cross, Canisius,
> and Air Force, with the tiebreakers giving Holy Cross second.
> WORST CASE: Would fall to eighth if they lose, Air Force and
> Robert
> Morris split their games (or tie twice), RIT gets at least two
> points,
> Army gets at least three points, and American International also
> beats
> Bentley. This sets up a three-way tie for sixth among Holy Cross,
> Robert Morris, and American International, with the tiebreakers
> putting
> the Crusaders eighth.
> TIEBREAKERS: Beats Air Force and Army West Point; loses to Robert
> Morris and American International; could win* or lose against
> Canisius
> and RIT.
>
> Air Force:
> THIS WEEKEND: At Robert Morris, at Robert Morris.
> ON THEIR OWN: Guarantees third with a sweep.
> BEST CASE: Finishes second with two wins if Canisius gets no
> more than
> one point.
> WORST CASE: Slides to ninth if they lose twice, RIT does not
> get swept,
> Army gets at least two points, and American International and
> Niagara
> both win twice.
> TIEBREAKERS: Loses to Holy Cross; could win* or lose against
> Army West
> Point and Niagara; could win or lose* against Canisius, RIT, and
> American International.
>
> RIT:
> THIS WEEKEND: Mercyhurst, Mercyhurst.
> ON THEIR OWN: A sweep wraps up fourth place.
> BEST CASE: Would take second with two wins if Canisius gets no
> more
> than one point and Air Force does not sweep.
> WORST CASE: Ends up in ninth place with two losses if Robert
> Morris
> and Army each get at least two points and American International
> and
> Niagara each win twice.
> TIEBREAKERS: Beats Robert Morris; loses to Niagara; could win or
> lose against Canisius; could win* or lose against Air Force; could
> win or lose* against Holy Cross, Army West Point, and American
> International.
>
> Robert Morris:
> THIS WEEKEND: Air Force, Air Force.
> ON THEIR OWN: Will clinch fourth place with two wins.
> BEST CASE: Climbs to second with a sweep if Canisius loses twice,
> Holy Cross wins, RIT gets no more than two points, and Army does
> not
> sweep. This sets up a three-way tie for second among Robert
> Morris,
> Canisius, and Holy Cross, and the tiebreakers would give Robert
> Morris
> second place.
> WORST CASE: Finishes tenth if they get swept, Army does not lose
> twice, American International gets at least three points, and
> Niagara
> sweeps.
> TIEBREAKERS: Beats Holy Cross, American International, Niagara,
> and
> Sacred Heart; loses to RIT; could win* or lose against Canisius;
> could
> win or lose* against Army West Point.
>
> Army West Point:
> THIS WEEKEND: Sacred Heart, Sacred Heart.
> ON THEIR OWN: Two wins will wrap up sixth place.
> BEST CASE: Gets third with a sweep if Holy Cross does not win, RIT
> gets no more than two points, and Air Force and Robert Morris split
> their games (or tie twice).
> WORST CASE: Falls to eleventh with two losses if American Inter-
> national gets at least three points and Niagara wins twice.
> TIEBREAKERS: Beats Niagara; loses to Canisius and Holy Cross;
> could
> win* or lose against RIT, Robert Morris, and Sacred Heart; could
> win
> or lose* against Air Force and American International.
>
> American International:
> THIS WEEKEND: At Holy Cross, at Bentley.
> ON THEIR OWN: Will get seventh place with a sweep.
> BEST CASE: Clinches fourth with two wins if either Air Force or
> Robert Morris sweeps, RIT loses twice, and Army West Point gets no
> more than one point.
> WORST CASE: Drops to eleventh if they lose twice and Niagara and
> Sacred Heart each get at least two points.
> TIEBREAKERS: Beats Holy Cross and Sacred Heart; loses to Robert
> Morris; could win or lose against Niagara; could win* or lose
> against
> Air Force, RIT, Army West Point, and Bentley.
>
> Niagara:
> THIS WEEKEND: At Canisius, Canisius.
> ON THEIR OWN: Takes ninth place with a pair of wins.
> BEST CASE: Rises to fifth with a sweep if RIT, Robert Morris,
> and Army
> West Point all lose twice and American International gets no
> more than
> two points.
> WORST CASE: Would slide to eleventh with two losses if Bentley
> wins
> and Sacred Heart sweeps.
> TIEBREAKERS: Beats RIT and Bentley; loses to Robert Morris and
> Army
> West Point; could win or lose against American International and
> Sacred
> Heart; could win or lose* against Air Force
>
> Bentley:
> THIS WEEKEND: American International.
> ON THEIR OWN: Can do no better than eleventh without help.
> BEST CASE: Wraps up ninth place with a win if American
> International
> does not beat Holy Cross, Niagara gets no more than one point, and
> Sacred Heart gets no more than two points.
> WORST CASE: Finishes eleventh if they lose and Sacred Heart
> gets at
> least one point.
> TIEBREAKERS: Loses to Niagara; could win* or lose against Sacred
> Heart; could win or lose* against American International.
>
> Sacred Heart:
> THIS WEEKEND: At Army West Point, at Army West Point.
> ON THEIR OWN: Takes ninth place with a sweep.
> BEST CASE: Would jump to seventh with two wins if American Inter-
> national gets no more than one point and Niagara gets no more than
> two points.
> WORST CASE: Ends up in eleventh if they get swept.
> TIEBREAKERS: Loses to Robert Morris and American International;
> could win or lose against Niagara; could win or lose* against Army
> West Point and Bentley.
>
>
> Bill Fenwick
> [log in to unmask]
--
charlie shub at home cell: (719) 761-8778
[log in to unmask] home: (719) 488-3634
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