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At 10:04 AM 3/8/96 EST, Ken Kretsch wrote:
>From what I remember of Bill James's analysis teams that overachieve
>(i.e., have an actual winning percentage that higher than the predicted
>based on their points scored and points allowed) tend to fall back to
>earth in subsequent seasons. Teams that underachieve tend to rebound
>in subsequent seasons. In otherwords, if UML did overachieve this year,
>they should not be expected to do as well next year.
 
This is interesting because it very well could happen because Lowell
graduates several key players this season.
 
Dave Barozzino (d), David Mayes (d), Brenden Concannon (f), Jon Mahoney (f),
Jeff Daw (f), David Dartsch (f), and Christain Sbrocca (f).  I don't know if
any of these players fall under Proposal 59, but they are all listed as seniors.
 
That is a very significant part of this team, and it would be illogical to
assume at this point that UMass-Lowell could be #2 next season in Hockey
East.  However, they weren't supposed to be #2 this year either, so you
never can tell.
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Deron Treadwell - [log in to unmask]
University of Maine - GO BLUE!  BEAT UNH!!
Owner/Administrator: Maine Hockey Discussion List
UMaine Hockey on the web:  http://maine.maine.edu/~dtread41/mehockey.html
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