Robin Lock wrote: > If Vermont wins the ECAC tourney, they would have both regular season > and tourney spots and probably beat Lowell in PWR - even if Lowell wins > Hockey East. I'm quite sure that this is not the case. If Lowell wins Hockey East I believe they will be probably around #5 or so in PWR, ahead of Vermont. I haven't looked at this exhaustively (that's what computers are for), but winning HE would give Lowell the best record in the country in Last 20 and move them to #3 in TUC. They'd get a *much* bigger bump in RPI due to beating #6 Maine and (presumably) #1 BU than Vermont would get out of beating unranked Harvard and a #8 or #13 team in the finals. If the RPI bump that Lowell gets isn't as much as I expect, then Vermont could wind up tied with Lowell in PWR, but otherwise Lowell will be ahead. My non-exhaustive but still Get-A-Life analysis concludes the following changes in PWR from Lowell as HE champ and Vermont as ECAC champ: For Lowell: +1 Lowell vs. Clarkson Tie -> Win (Clarkson had won RPI tiebreak) +2 Lowell vs. LSSU Loss -> Win even if LSSU wins CCHA, because Lowell drops a loss in Last20 and passes them. ?? Lowell vs. Michigan Tie -> ??? Michigan currently wins the tiebreak on a big lead in RPI. Michigan would probably have to lose in the semis to give Lowell any hope of overtaking in RPI. +3 Lowell vs. Minnesota Loss -> Win Mass-Lowell bypasses Minnesota in TUC +4? Lowell vs. Vermont Loss -> Win (maybe) This is all going to come down to RPI. Currently this match is 1-3 but Lowell goes to 2-3 because they surpass Vermont in Last20 (they are currently tied and the two games Vermont drops includes a tie while the two games Lowell will drop includes a loss). So then it will come down to RPI. They are currently separated by slightly less than .01. Will the tougher opponents Lowell faces push them past Vermont? I don't know, but I would think so. All other results appear to stay as is. For Vermont: Vermont vs. Denver Tie -> Win (but Vermont already wins tiebreaker RPI so no change) +1 Vermont vs. Maine Loss -> Win (since Maine loses in semis) +2, +3 Vermont vs. LSSU, Michigan, Michigan State Currently these are all losses. It got too messy to figure out precisely, but I think the best Vermont can do is drop two of those losses to wins. This is too dependant on the CCHA permutations. +2? Vermont vs. Lowell (see above) All other results appear to stay as is. Now, class, are you still with me? You in the back, take NoDoz next time. So even if Vermont holds onto its lead in RPI, the best it seems it can do is go from 11 PWR wins to 14. This seems to be the worst Lowell can do, with the realistic potential to go to 15-13 Lowell ahead and a slim possibility at 16-13. HOWEVER, I think it's a real possibility that Vermont would still get the #2 seed (unfairly) in the 15-13 scenario so that the committee can do the politically correct thing in giving all four conferences a bye. This would be a shame because I've heard that the Lowell team has established a goal of being a bye team. Two years ago they saw firsthand the disadvantages of playing a rested team (2OT against Minnesota). I wouldn't mind if the committee said upfront that winners of both the regular season and tournament were guaranteed a bye, but they've never said it so it seems that the numbers should dictate. Unfortunately, we're not even 100% sure we're using the same numbers as the committee. :-( AND ONE MORE HOWEVER. The odds are certainly much better that Vermont will win the ECAC than Lowell will win the HE given Lowell's tougher competition. So all of this is probably moot, but is what gives meaning to life to cretins like me. I would invite those of you who are still with me to join our Get-A-Life organization. Turn your back on that evil and tedious "real world." Join us. It's soooooothing... ***************************************************** ,-******-, * Dave Hendrickson "Robo" [log in to unmask] * *' ## '* * A Hockey Polygamist and Get-A-Lifer * *## ___##___ ##* * GO BROONS!!! Go Red Wings!! Go Canucks! * * ##| ___ \## * * GO UMASS-LOWELL!!! Go BU!! Go Maine! Go Michigan. * * | |___) | * * --------------------------------------------------* *######| ___ <######* * Although I can't remember ever having an original * * | |___) | * * thought, and am certainly parroting someone who * * ##|________/## * * actually has a brain, these opinions are mine, * *## ## ##* * not Hewlett-Packard's. * *, ## ,* ***************************************************** '-*******-' HOCKEY-L is for discussion of college ice hockey; send information to [log in to unmask], The College Hockey Information List.