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Hi all, I just finished my finals this quarter. So here is my guess on how the selections/seedings will go. No guarantees that I am right but it may help people understand the complexities associated with what's going on. Locks: CCHA: 1.) LSSU 2.) Mich 3.) WMU* ECAC: 1.) Verm 2.) Clksn Hockey East: 1.) BU 2.) UML WCHA: 1.) CC 2.) UMN * I conjecture that WMU is already in, but I have not run the numbers. (It's more fun this way!) The argument goes as follows. For them not to be they need 3 teams to pass them. This can happen if BGSU, Harvard and Providence all win their conference championships. But then MSU must lose one game. Looking at the comparison between MSU and WMU we now have Michigan State Western Michigan RPI .5859 1 .5840 0 L20 13- 6- 1 1 11- 6- 3 0 TUC 6-10- 0 0 11- 8- 1 1 H2H 2 1 COP 22- 8- 1 0 20- 6- 3 1 ============================================ PTS 4 3 My guess is that 1 loss by MSU allows WMU to pass them in RPI. (Certainly two losses will). If my guess is correct then WMU passes MSU in PWR and MSU fails to make the tournament. There may be a gap here that I am missing. So don't cash the check yet. Bubble Teams: 1.) Michigan State -- The above scenario is the only way MSU is not in the tournament. 2.) Bowling Green -- They must prevent two teams from passing them. They are in the tournament if any of the following happens. - They win their conference championship. - If both Harvard and Providence lose once this weekend - If at least one of Harvard and Providence loses once this weekend and Cornell does not win the head to head comparison with BGSU. Currently this looks like Bowling Green Cornell RPI .5641 1 .5493 0 L20 14- 6- 0 0 14- 5- 1 1 TUC 8- 9- 0 1 5- 6- 2 0 H2H 0 0 COP 5- 2- 0 1 2- 3- 0 0 ============================================ PTS 3 1 3.) Cornell -- They must prevent one team from passing them. They are in the tournament if any of the following happens - They win their conference championship. - If at least one of Harvard and Providence loses once this weekend and Cornell wins the head to head comparison with BGSU (see above comparison) - If both Harvard and Providence lose once this weekend and they do not lose there comparison to Denver. Currently this looks like Cornell Denver RPI .5493 1 .5421 0 L20 14- 5- 1 1 7-11- 2 0 TUC 5- 6- 2 0 9- 8- 0 1 H2H 0 0 COP 2- 2- 0 0 5- 3- 0 1 ============================================ PTS 2 2 (Win goes to Cornell based on RPI) 4.) Denver -- They need to pass one team. They are in the tournament if the following happens. - If both Harvard and Providence lose once this weekend and they win their comparison vs Cornell. (see above comparison). 5.) Providence and Harvard need to win their conference tournaments. Now comes the complicated part. Seedings! :-) I will list the outcome I think is most likely to occur. At Munn At Albany 1.) CC 1.) BU 2.) LSSU 2.) Vermont 3.) Mich 3.) Minn 4.) UMass Lowell 4.) Clarkson 5.) Mich State 5.) West Mich 6.) Cornell 6.) Bowling Green Here I let in 5 CCHA teams. As far as I can see they deserve it. Two eastern and western teams get byes. There are no first round matchups between teams in the same conference. The three Michigan teams that stay west maximize $$. If Cornell makes it they must go west, since there the lowest eastern team. Mass Lowell goes west because (I believe) Clarkson is a better draw at Albany. Lastly, each bracket matches the current ordering in PWR with the exception of the Vermont and Minn. But as Keith Instone informed us earlier this week, both Eastern byes will be given to eastern teams. Later, Tim Brule [log in to unmask] HOCKEY-L is for discussion of college ice hockey; send information to [log in to unmask], The College Hockey Information List.