At 4:29 PM 1/31/96, Charlie Shub wrote:
>The following teams would (likely) be selected
>
> Minnesota              WCHA
> Boston University      HE
> Western Michigan       CCHA
> Lake Superior          CCHA
> Colorado College       WCHA
> Michigan               CCHA
> Michigan State         CCHA
> Denver                 WCHA
> Vermont                ECAC
> St Lawrence            ECAC
> Clarkson               ECAC
> Mass Lowell            HE
 
(in other words, the top 12 teams from the RPI not including Maine)
 
>Now if somebody not on the above list wins the season or the
>tournament, one would start paring from the bottom, subject to having
>at least 2 teams from each conference.
 
I understand where Charlie is coming from, but I fear that this may serve
to confuse people who are not aware of the changes in the selection process
this year.
 
You can't take the RPI Top 12 anymore and say that those teams would be
selected or even have an inside track on being selected.  This is because
the RPI is no longer used to provide an initial ranking of the teams.  For
example, just because Minnesota is ranked first in the RPI, even if it is
by a large margin, does not mean that Minnesota would get the top seed
overall or even the 1W seed.  Last year, just winning the RPI by a large
enough margin ( > .01) would have been enough to get the top team a #1 seed
overall.
 
To get a true idea of where teams stand, you would have to take all of the
teams that would be "under consideration" - the teams that have a DivI
record over .500 - and do pairwise comparisons between all of those teams
from top to bottom.  The team that wins the most comparisons would be
seeded first, and so on.  After this seeding is determined, we'd see if the
regular season and tourney champs are in the top 12, as well as at least
two teams from each conference, and make adjustments where necessary.
 
Note that this is very different from the example I outlined earlier
between Vermont and Brown.  The initial ranking of Vermont ahead of Brown
simply due to RPI wouldn't matter.  Vermont would have to win more
comparisons with all teams under consideration than Brown (as well as
enough other teams vying for bids).
 
And, note that at first, no consideration is given to making sure that X
number of bids are extended to each conference.  Once a seeding is
determined from the comparisons, then if a conference does not have 2 teams
in the top 12, some shifting must be done to account for this and add a
second team from that conference.  In other words, the committee does not
start off and decide that Conference A will get 4 bids and Conference B
will get 2 bids, or whatever.  I believe I have seen some comments that
suggested the reverse was true.
 
Also, it is unclear where Maine falls into all of this.  It has been
suggested that perhaps Maine will be allowed to be involved in the process
- and compared to all of the other teams - and then if Maine ranks in the
top 12, the bid would simply be extended to another team.  But we do not
know right now whether this is true - or if Maine will be involved in the
selection process at all.  Only the committee can tell us, and I do not
know if even they know right now.  I have heard arguments on both sides,
and both have merit.
 
I strongly encourage everyone to try to understand the process as best as
possible.  It will help in understanding the decisions that are made at
selection time.
 
---                                                                   ---
Mike Machnik                   [log in to unmask]            *HMM* 11/13/93
>> Co-owner of the College Hockey Lists at University of Maine System  <<
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