Tony got the puck rolling in this discussion and specifically mentioned me, so I feel compelled to respond. As some of you know, I compiled some of the selection stats for the NCAA committee the past few years. This was more than just doing the Rating Percentage Index, since the selection process is based on other factors: head-to-head record, common opponents, record over the last 20 games, and record versus teams under consideration. Starting this year the NCAA is doing it all by itself, but I still keep my eye on things. So, first and foremost, I have to say that even I do not feel comfortable determining seeds for the tournament! (As many of you know, first 12 teams are selected, then they are assigned to eastern and western regions. Within each region teams are ranked to determine who plays whom.) The seeding process is really up to the committee to do whatever they want, from what I understand. In the past, they have used the selection criteria to seed teams. They have had exceptions like ensuring a host team plays in its own region. They have never seeded a true western team #1 or #2 in the eastern region. **But that does not mean these things couldn't happen this year.** There is only one way to be sure: ask Rick Comley, the chair of the committe, what the committee is going to do this year. For example, I would not assume that if MSU is selected they are guaranteed a spot in the west regionals: better ask to be sure. I would feel confident in telling you which 12 teams would be selected, if the decision had to be made right now. I would also tell you how *I* would seed the teams, trying to follow past committee behavior and ensuring good matchups. But I would never claim to know exactly how teams were going to be seeded, because it is simply not as well-defined as the selection process at this point. I don't have a problem with this either. The committee can have some freedom on this factor, IMHO. So, I won't comment further on the SEEDING aspects. But I can add a few things about the selection process. Tony Biscardi raises the point that the western teams look strong in the RPICH: If you go beyond the Rating Percentage Index and look at the entire selection process, the West is still pretty darn strong. If you make a list of the 5 best teams in each conference, you'll find the CCHA #5 team (Bowling Green) beating out all of the other #5 teams on the selection criteria. It beats out most #4 teams, and even a few #3 teams. Add in the fact that one of Hockey East's top teams (Maine) will not accept an NCAA bid, and it gets harder to find eastern teams that beat out western teams. Mike Machnik asks how the initial ranking will be done, now that the rating will not be used to determine which teams are under consideration: Simple! Now, if you end up with a winning record against all of the other teams eligible for the tourney, then you are "under consideration". No initial ranking is done, as I see it: all teams under consideration start out equal, regardless of their record or rating. Each team is compared with the others in a comparison on the criteria. With 20 teams under conideration, that's 20*19/2 = 190 comparisons. Ouch. One team will probably win its comparisons with all of the other teams: it would be considered #1. If you can manage to only lose to 11 teams (and beat the remaining teams under consideration), you will probably sneak in as the 12th team selected. William Sangrey says not to waste your time because there is only partial data: But you can learn a lot from partial data! For example, I can look at the comparison between BGSU and St. Lawrence. At this point, it might be the case that the final bid comes down to either one of these teams. Yes, the ratings for these teams will change, but how close are they? If one team is way, way ahead, then it will probably still be ahead on the rating at the end of the season. The ratings will not change much, since most of the non-conference play is over. You can look at common opponents for SLU and BGSU: one team is Western Michigan. St. Lawrence lost to WMU and so far BG is 0-2. But if BG wins its final regular season game vs the Broncos, they would win this little "battle of the selection war". And since BG doesn't play any more ECAC teams and since SLU is done playing the CCHA, this common opponents will be pretty stable. Note that BG and SLU have several other common opponents, so it is really much more complicated I have stated here. You can also look at head-to-head games, since each extra win over an opponent is worth a point. BG is 0-2 vs. WMU, so if they lose a third game to them, they can write off their chances of being selected over WMU for the NCAAs. WMU will get 3 points right there, with only a maximum of 4 points remaining. Likewise, if WMU can rack up wins against Michigan and MSU and LSSU, it can pretty much guarantee itself a bid, even if fails to win the regular season or play-offs. But BG is 1-0 versus MSU, with two+ to play, so even if BG has a much worse rating than MSU, it still has a chance to win the criteria comaprison and beat MSU out for a bid. Some of the criteria you have to look at carefully (almost ignore). The "record over the last 20" will often only include games starting with the new year, so much of the season has yet to be played to determine this criteria. "Record vs teams under consideration" depends on who finishes over .500. I can tell you that BGSU is rooting for RPI big time to end up with a winning record. If they do, BG gets an extra 2-0 added to their record versus teams under consideration stat. You can look at the teams on the .500 bubble to see who benefits/loses out if they finish above/below that mark, but that's about all you can do with this criteria right now.. So, you can make some generalizations based on today's partial data. You can have some "soft" numbers to tell you things like: BU is a shoe-in to get a bid. And you can identify some trends worth following over the next two months. Yes, the committee uses the FINAL numbers to select teams; that doesn't mean they don't take a fee peeks along the way so they know what to expect. That's all I have for now. Keith HOCKEY-L is for discussion of college ice hockey; send information to [log in to unmask], The College Hockey Information List.