Tony got the puck rolling in this discussion and specifically mentioned
me, so I feel compelled to respond. As some of you know, I compiled
some of the selection stats for the NCAA committee the past few years.
This was more than just doing the Rating Percentage Index, since the
selection process is based on other factors: head-to-head record,
common opponents, record over the last 20 games, and record versus
teams under consideration. Starting this year the NCAA is doing it all
by itself, but I still keep my eye on things.
 
So, first and foremost, I have to say that even I do not feel
comfortable determining seeds for the tournament!  (As many of you
know, first 12 teams are selected, then they are assigned to eastern
and western regions. Within each region teams are ranked to determine
who plays whom.)
 
The seeding process is really up to the committee to do whatever they
want, from what I understand. In the past, they have used the selection
criteria to seed teams. They have had exceptions like ensuring a host
team plays in its own region. They have never seeded a true western
team #1 or #2 in the eastern region. **But that does not mean these
things couldn't happen this year.** There is only one way to be sure:
ask Rick Comley, the chair of the committe, what the committee is going
to do this year. For example, I would not assume that if MSU is
selected they are guaranteed a spot in the west regionals: better ask
to be sure.
 
I would feel confident in telling you which 12 teams would be selected,
if the decision had to be made right now. I would also tell you how *I*
would seed the teams, trying to follow past committee behavior and
ensuring good matchups. But I would never claim to know exactly how
teams were going to be seeded, because it is simply not as well-defined
as the selection process at this point.
 
I don't have a problem with this either. The committee can have some
freedom on this factor, IMHO.
 
So, I won't comment further on the SEEDING aspects. But I can add a few
things about the selection process.
 
Tony Biscardi raises the point that the western teams look strong in
the RPICH:
 
If you go beyond the Rating Percentage Index and look at the entire
selection process, the West is still pretty darn strong.  If you make a
list of the 5 best teams in each conference, you'll find the CCHA #5
team (Bowling Green) beating out all of the other #5 teams on the
selection criteria. It beats out most #4 teams, and even a few #3
teams. Add in the fact that one of Hockey East's top teams (Maine) will
not accept an NCAA bid, and it gets harder to find eastern teams that
beat out western teams.
 
Mike Machnik asks how the initial ranking will be done, now that the
rating will not be used to determine which teams are under
consideration:
 
Simple! Now, if you end up with a winning record against all of the
other teams eligible for the tourney, then you are "under
consideration".  No initial ranking is done, as I see it: all teams
under consideration start out equal, regardless of their record or
rating. Each team is compared with the others in a comparison on the
criteria. With 20 teams under conideration, that's 20*19/2 = 190
comparisons. Ouch. One team will probably win its comparisons with all of
the other teams: it would be considered #1. If you can manage to only
lose to 11 teams (and beat the remaining teams under consideration),
you will probably sneak in as the 12th team selected.
 
William Sangrey says not to waste your time because there is only
partial data:
 
But you can learn a lot from partial data! For example, I can look at
the comparison between BGSU and St. Lawrence. At this point, it might
be the case that the final bid comes down to either one of these teams.
Yes, the ratings for these teams will change, but how close are they?
If one team is way, way ahead, then it will probably still be ahead
on the rating at the end of the season.  The ratings will not change
much, since most of the non-conference play is over.
 
You can look at common opponents for SLU and BGSU:  one team is Western
Michigan. St. Lawrence lost to WMU and so far BG is 0-2.  But if BG
wins its final regular season game vs the Broncos, they would win this
little "battle of the selection war". And since BG doesn't play any
more ECAC teams and since SLU is done playing the CCHA, this common
opponents will be pretty stable. Note that BG and SLU have several
other common opponents, so it is really much more complicated I
have stated here.
 
You can also look at head-to-head games, since each extra win over an
opponent is worth a point. BG is 0-2 vs. WMU, so if they lose a third
game to them, they can write off their chances of being selected over
WMU for the NCAAs. WMU will get 3 points right there, with only a
maximum of 4 points remaining. Likewise, if WMU can rack up wins
against Michigan and MSU and LSSU, it can pretty much guarantee itself
a bid, even if fails to win the regular season or play-offs. But BG is
1-0 versus MSU, with two+ to play, so even if BG has a much worse rating
than MSU, it still has a chance to win the criteria comaprison and beat
MSU out for a bid.
 
Some of the criteria you have to look at carefully (almost ignore). The
"record over the last 20" will often only include games starting with
the new year, so much of the season has yet to be played to determine
this criteria. "Record vs teams under consideration" depends on who
finishes over .500. I can tell you that BGSU is rooting for RPI big
time to end up with a winning record. If they do, BG gets an extra 2-0
added to their record versus teams under consideration stat. You can
look at the teams on the .500 bubble to see who benefits/loses out if
they finish above/below that mark, but that's about all you can do with
this criteria right now..
 
So, you can make some generalizations based on today's partial data.
You can have some "soft" numbers to tell you things like: BU is a
shoe-in to get a bid.  And you can identify some trends worth following
over the next two months.
 
Yes, the committee uses the FINAL numbers to select teams; that
doesn't mean they don't take a fee peeks along the way so they know what
to expect.
 
That's all I have for now.
 
 
Keith
 
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