(This is a repost of the Beanpot preview we posted late last week - the numbers have been updated with the weekend's results. BU's chances have improved with their 5-2 win over Mass-Lowell, while BC's 6-4 loss to Merrimack and Harvard's OT win at Princeton have hurt their projections.) In anticipation of the most celebrated tournament in college hockey, we present a special CHODR preview of this year's Beanpot. The field features three of the top 12 teams in the ratings (and 2 of the top 3) as Boston University ranks #2, Harvard is #3, Northeastern is #12, and Boston College is #17. First, here are the score predictions and win probabilities for each individual game. First Round - Monday, February 7: NORTHEASTERN 4.83 (56.0%) vs Boston College 4.39 (44.0%) BOSTON UNIVERSITY 4.59 (59.4%) vs Harvard 3.92 (40.6%) Championship/Consolation - Monday, February 14: BOSTON UNIVERSITY 5.08 (71.4%) vs Boston College 3.50 (28.6%) BOSTON UNIVERSITY 5.07 (65.4%) vs Northeastern 3.93 (34.6%) HARVARD 4.82 (62.7%) vs Boston College 3.91 (37.3%) HARVARD 4.80 (56.5%) vs Northeastern 4.33 (43.5%) The following table summarizes the possible outcomes of the tournament. The rating given is the latest overall CHODR rating which represents the margin by which each team would be predicted to beat a hypothetical average team. Under each column labeled "1st", "2nd", "3rd" and "4th" is the team's chances of finishing in that position. For example, the 18.9% listed in the "2nd" column for BU means that BU has an 18.9% chance of winning in the first round and then losing the championship game to finish 2nd. Rank Team Rating 1st 2nd 3rd 4th ------------------------------------------------------------------- #2 Boston University 2.04 40.4% 19.0% 27.9% 12.7% #3 Harvard 1.38 24.0% 16.6% 35.6% 23.8% #12 Northeastern 0.91 21.4% 34.6% 17.6% 26.4% #17 Boston College 0.47 14.1% 29.8% 18.9% 37.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------- It's interesting to note that although Harvard is the second strongest team in the field, and has the second-best chance of winning the championship, the Crimson are most likely to finish 3rd, while the Northeastern Huskies have the best chance of finishing 2nd. Obviously this is due to the fact that Harvard must face #2 BU in the first round while Northeastern squares off against #17 BC. Timothy J. Danehy [log in to unmask] Robin Lock [log in to unmask]