With the recent discussion on who has to do what to go where in the ECAC
playoffs (and since I find myself with a little free time), I thought I'd
put together this year's ECAC Playoff Permutation Special, showing what
teams can finish where and how they do in various tiebreaker situations.
Let's get the easy stuff out of the way first. Harvard locked up the
regular-season title and the top seed in the playoffs with Saturday night's
win at Vermont, while Union's loss to Colgate the night before officially
eliminated the Skating Dutchmen from ECAC playoff contention.
As far as the rest of the picture goes, there is still plenty of jockeying
for better spots left to do. Here's a breakdown of where each team could
finish in the ECAC's final standings, along with what has to happen for them
to move up to better playoff spots. The playoff picture for each team is
broken down into the following categories:
THIS WEEKEND: The team's weekend games, its last two of the season.
ON THEIR OWN: The highest the team could finish with no help from the
competition. Generally, this involves a weekend sweep.
BEST CASE: The highest the team could finish if everything goes right.
WORST CASE: The lowest the team could finish if everything goes wrong.
This generally involves getting swept while teams nearby in the
standings win.
TIEBREAKERS: How the team would fare if they finished the season tied with
some other team which is currently close (within 4 points) in the
standings.
For two or more teams tied in the standings, the ECAC tiebreakers are:
1. Head-to-head record in ECAC games (non-conference meetings, such as in
tournaments, do not count).
2. Record against the top four teams in the conference.
3. Record against the top eight teams in the conference.
4. Goal differential (net goals) head-to-head.
5. Goal differential against the top four teams in the conference.
6. Goal differential against the top eight teams in the conference.
(note that #4 above was missing from some earlier ECAC tiebreaker posts)
I don't recall any cases where teams have ever had to go beyond the third
tiebreaker. This year, however, a tie between RPI and Brown could possibly
go to the fourth tiebreaker (edge to RPI by one goal), while one between
Dartmouth and Brown could go all the way to the fifth (edge to Dartmouth by
at least one goal).
Here are the playoff "permutations" for each team, in order of their current
position in the standings:
Harvard:
THIS WEEK: Clarkson, St. Lawrence.
ON THEIR OWN: As previously mentioned, the Crimson has already
clinched first place. However, Harvard needs a pair of strong perfor-
mances in these two games to counteract some inconsistent play on their
part over the last few weeks (which culminated in the loss at Dart-
mouth). The Crimson need look no further than last year's fade to see
what can happen in the playoffs if a team finishes the regular season
poorly. It won't be easy getting many points from the always-tough
Clarkson and St. Lawrence duo, but then, Harvard is undefeated at home.
RPI:
THIS WEEK: At Yale, at Princeton.
ON THEIR OWN: Two points this weekend will give the Engineers second
place.
BEST CASE: Second.
WORST CASE: Finishes fourth if Yale sweeps and the Brown-Clarkson
winner wins its other game.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats Brown; loses to Yale and Clarkson.
Brown:
THIS WEEK: St. Lawrence, Clarkson.
ON THEIR OWN: Clinches third with a sweep.
BEST CASE: Clinches second with a sweep if RPI loses twice.
WORST CASE: Finishes sixth if they lose twice and Yale gets at least
one point this weekend.
TIEBREAKERS: Loses to RPI; could win or lose against Yale, Clarkson,
and St. Lawrence.
Clarkson:
THIS WEEK: At Harvard, at Brown.
ON THEIR OWN: Clinches fourth with a pair of wins.
BEST CASE: Clinches second if they sweep and RPI loses twice.
WORST CASE: Finishes seventh if they are swept, Vermont wins twice,
Yale gets at least one point, and St. Lawrence gets at least two points
but does not finish in the top four.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats RPI, Yale, and St. Lawrence; could win or lose
against Brown and Vermont.
Yale:
THIS WEEK: RPI, Union.
ON THEIR OWN: Clinches fifth with three points this weekend.
BEST CASE: Clinches second with a sweep if RPI also loses to Princeton
and either Brown and Clarkson tie or the winner of that game does not
win their other game.
WORST CASE: Finishes seventh if they are swept, Vermont wins twice,
and St. Lawrence gets at least two points this weekend.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats RPI and St. Lawrence; loses to Clarkson and Ver-
mont; could win or lose against Brown.
St. Lawrence:
THIS WEEK: At Brown, at Harvard.
ON THEIR OWN: Two points will clinch sixth place for the Saints.
BEST CASE: Finishes third with a sweep if Clarkson and Yale get no
more than two points each.
WORST CASE: Finishes seventh if Vermont gets at least three more
points than they do this weekend.
TIEBREAKERS: Loses to Clarkson, Yale, and Vermont; could win or lose
against Brown.
Vermont:
THIS WEEK: At Colgate, at Cornell.
ON THEIR OWN: Has already clinched seventh place and can do no better
without help.
BEST CASE: Clinches fourth with a sweep if Clarkson, Yale, and St.
Lawrence all lose twice.
WORST CASE: Seventh.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats Yale and St. Lawrence; could win or lose against
Clarkson.
Dartmouth:
THIS WEEK: At Cornell, at Colgate.
ON THEIR OWN: Clinches eighth with a tie against Colgate or a win
against Cornell.
BEST CASE: Eighth.
WORST CASE: Finishes ninth if Colgate gets at least three more points
than they do.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats Colgate.
Colgate:
THIS WEEK: Vermont, Dartmouth.
ON THEIR OWN: Clinches ninth with one point this weekend.
BEST CASE: Clinches eighth if they get at least three more points than
Dartmouth.
WORST CASE: Finishes tenth if Princeton gets at least three more
points than they do.
TIEBREAKERS: Loses to Dartmouth and Princeton.
Princeton:
THIS WEEK: Union, RPI.
ON THEIR OWN: Two points will give Princeton tenth place.
BEST CASE: Clinches ninth if they get at least three more points than
Colgate.
WORST CASE: Finishes eleventh if Cornell gets at least three more
points than they do, or if they lose twice, Cornell beats Dartmouth,
and Vermont finishes in the top four.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats Colgate; could win or lose against Cornell.
Cornell:
THIS WEEK: Dartmouth, Vermont.
ON THEIR OWN: Clinches eleventh with one point this weekend.
BEST CASE: Clinches tenth if they get three more points than Princeton
does. If Princeton loses twice and Cornell beats Dartmouth and not
Vermont, the Big Red would finish tenth if the Catamounts finish in the
top four.
WORST CASE: Finishes twelfth if they lose twice and Union sweeps.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats Union; could win or lose against Princeton.
Union:
THIS WEEK: At Princeton, at Yale.
ON THEIR OWN: Can do no better than twelfth without help.
BEST CASE: Finishes eleventh if they sweep and Cornell loses twice.
WORST CASE: Twelfth.
TIEBREAKERS: Loses to Cornell.
Outlook for the weekend:
Harvard may have been hard-pressed to get the #2 seed in the East for the
NC$$ tournament anyway, but the loss to Dartmouth Friday night makes that
scenario far more unlikely. Last year, Harvard lost to Clarkson and St.
Lawrence in the season's final weekend and nearly blew the league title as
well, until a Clarkson loss to Brown gave the Crimson the top spot. This
year, Harvard has the luxury of not having to worry about losing the #1
seed, but that's not going to make the opposition any easier. The Crimson
could very well meet one or the other of these teams down the road in the
playoffs.
RPI has a good chance to move up in the national rankings this weekend, and
maybe even establish themselves as the team to beat come playoff time, with
a sweep. They face a faltering Yale team and a Princeton squad that can be
tough but probably can't stay with them. The only chink in the Engineers'
armor is that they are just a so-so (0.500) road team this year.
Brown raised eyebrows last year by going up to the North Country and beating
pre-season favorite Clarkson and playing eventual ECAC champ St. Lawrence
very tough. This weekend, the Bears host the same two teams, having already
tied them both earlier in the year, and with a good chance to lock up home
ice. If Brown's explosive offense can carry the day, the Bears won't have
to worry about their goaltending, which has been up and down this season.
With only one loss in the ten games since their trip to Maine, Clarkson has
stormed back into contention for a home-ice berth. But the Golden Knights
are playing a pair of tough teams this weekend, and they had better not have
the kind of lapses that cost them several games earlier in the year as well
as the one against Colgate a few weeks ago. Travel partner St. Lawrence,
which plays the same two teams, is in a slightly different boat. A couple
of recent losses cost the Saints the chance to control their own destiny as
far as home ice is concerned. However, St. Lawrence's comeback against Yale
may signal that the Saints don't intend to give up their ECAC crown without
a fight.
Speaking of Yale, the Elis have to be wondering what's happened. Three
weeks ago, Yale was 10-2-2 in the ECAC, solidly in second place (and even
challenging for the top spot), and ranked #10 nationally. Since then, the
bottom has dropped out, as the Elis have gone 1-4-1 and have steadily
dropped in the standings. Their last real chance to make some noise before
the playoffs begin may come on Friday night, when they host a hot RPI team.
The dark horse here may be Vermont. While the top six teams take turns
shooting at each other this weekend, the Catamounts make the league's
easiest road trip this year, to Colgate and Cornell, with a chance to make a
move. Vermont is a different team away from raucous Gutterson Field House,
however, with an overall road record of 3-8-2 (0.308). Travel partner Dart-
mouth, although they can finish no higher than eighth, has a chance to put
the exclamation point on a surprising season with solid performances against
the Big Red and the Red Raiders. But just like Vermont, the Big Green has
had a rough time away from home, beating only two ECAC opponents (Union and
Princeton) on the road.
Colgate has made a pretty respectable turnaround from their dreadful 0-7
league start, but the Red Raiders are still a little shaky in goal. They
may wind up having to rely on their improving offense to dent the heralded
Christian Soucy and the unheralded Vern Guetens. A few hours down the road,
the Princeton Tigers have been steadily inching toward that final playoff
berth, but they still have been unable to deal the death blow to a reeling
Cornell team. Perhaps that will come this Friday, when the Tigers host
Union, but then again, the Dutchmen did beat Princeton earlier this year.
It's almost inhumane to ask a team which has lost ten straight to turn
around and sweep the final weekend of the season, but that's what Cornell is
going to have to do to if they are to have a realistic shot at the tenth and
final playoff berth. Add this to the ongoing discussion of the Big Red's
crummy play: Cornell currently has a two-game losing streak against the Big
Green (the only other team that can say that is Union), and the Big Red
hasn't beaten Vermont in the final weekend of the season in six years.
Union has no shot at the playoffs, but once again, the Skating Dutchmen have
the chance to ride a win over Cornell into a role as spoiler. As mentioned,
Union has already beat Princeton this year, and the Dutchmen have a history
of making things miserable for Yale. The scores of the three meetings
between the Dutchmen and the Elis: 5-5, 5-4 Yale in OT, and 4-2 Yale.
--
Bill Fenwick | Send your HOCKEY-L poll responses to:
Cornell '86 and probably '94 | [log in to unmask]
LET'S GO RED!!
"Come on, you don't think the Beatles did drugs? They were so high, they let
*Ringo* sing a few songs."
-- Jimmy Tingle