In the East, we have two teams that we know will be in: Maine and SLU. There is no argument (nor any need for one) as to the placement of Maine, so we'll put them #1E. The rest of the picture is not as clear. This is probably not going to be as comprehensive as I'd like, but I hope it will still be interesting. I haven't touched the West since I still think all seeds are up for grabs, especially in the event of an upset. My goal is not so much to predict the seeds yet as it is to show some information I've put together that will likely be considered by the committee. Re: my earlier posting on Wis-NMU-PC, it is still possible that PC will get in, so we'll keep that on the back burner. There are a lot of outside factors that may influence the committee's decision on seeding. These include: * BU losing in the first round * UNH going to the HE Championship (beating PC in semifinal) * SLU winning the ECAC Championship * Harvard finishing first in the regular season * Harvard getting knocked out in the first round * Jack Parker being on the selection committee I call these "outside" factors because there is nothing in stone that says these must play a part in the seedings - but undoubtedly, they will. And there is no way to know just how much of an effect they will have. For example, as Mike mentioned, Clarkson both won the regular season title and the playoff title last year yet was seeded fourth - that is a clear indication that the committee placed a heavier emphasis on the numbers. They may do it again, they may not. I see five factors that are known to definitely have some sort of an effect on the decision, from the past. These are: * RPICH rating. Supposedly to have a bigger impact this year. It did in the basketball seedings. But that doesn't mean the hockey folks will go with it in the end. * Division I winning percentage. * Record against common opponents. * Head-to-head record. * Record against "teams under consideration" (we can only take an educated guess as to exactly which teams these are). Prior to last year, the committee announced the seeds by telephone press conference and took questions from people as to why certain teams did/did not get in. They were often very explicit as to the criteria used. That's how I came up with the above list. I'm leaving out things like "available players", etc. since I don't think they will play a part this time around. In looking at how the teams could be seeded, I'm trying to look at all teams that appear to be under consideration and comparing them head-to-head. This may shed some light on how certain teams stack up. The RPICH rating is supposed to be the key criteria, but other criteria also come into play for teams that are "closely rated". That's subjective. I went with last week's top 15. They have changed slightly but won't affect the "Top15" records in most cases, and then only very slightly. The teams I'm looking at are: SLU (they're in, but where will they be seeded), Clarkson, Harvard; BU, UNH, PC. First, since two teams must be chosen from each conference, I think it is safe to say that we need to choose from Harvard or Clarkson as the 2nd ECAC team. RPICH DivI% CommOpp% H-to-H Top15% Harvard .5220 .630 .750 .250 .214 Clarkson .5160 .683 .696 .750 .500 Despite the difference of three places in the standings of RPICH, the actual rating difference between these two is small enough that other factors will likely come into play. The key may be Clarkson's 1-0-1 record against Harvard. Harvard has the slight edge in CommOpp, but I don't think it is enough, so I'd pick Clarkson as the 2nd ECAC team. (Might as well start off with an easy one.) Next, the second HE team from UNH, BU, PC. RPICH DivI% CommOpp H-to-H Top15% UNH .5401 .639 .667 .500 .300 BU .5454 .697 .652 .500 .545 UNH .5401 .639 .696 .250 .300 PC .5352 .611 .520 .750 .500 BU .5454 .697 .646 .500 .545 PC .5352 .611 .580 .500 .500 Here's where it gets tough. BU appears to have the edge over UNH - first a slight edge in RPICH, but head-to-head is equal. UNH has the slight edge in CommOpp, but BU has a bigger edge in both win% and record against top teams. BU gets the clear nod over PC, in my mind, so I put them as the 2nd best HE team. The other comparison is between UNH and PC. This is particularly difficult. Rating is close, and PC has the huge 3-1-0 head-to-head advantage as well as the better record against top teams. But UNH has a heavy CommOpp lead and a slight lead in win%. We have no idea which factors will get the heaviest emphasis or if the UNH win over PC in the quarterfinals will sway them. Many people seem to feel it will, but that's not necessarily true. Here's why SLU may get the #2E seed. RPICH DivI% CommOpp H-to-H Top15% BU .5454 .697 .714 ----- .545 SLU .5321 .726 .722 ----- .600 UNH .5401 .639 .767 1.000 .300 SLU .5321 .726 .700 .000 .600 No comparison was done with PC because I can't see PC beating out BU, but UNH could beat out both BU and PC. SLU has a lower rating than BU & UNH - but not by much. SLU seems to have the clear edge over BU. It's closer with UNH because of UNH's head-to-head win and better CommOpp%, but 1) they may not place as much emphasis on the win since it came after SLU had played two tough games on the road and was SLU's third game in four nights (speculation ONLY), and 2) SLU has a much better win% and record vs top teams. So, while I think that just winning the ECAC championship and finishing 2nd in the regular season is NOT enough in my mind, I do think that they stack up well enough against whoever the 2nd-best HE team is. So seeding SLU 2nd would be okay in my book and I think it will happen. The rest of the seeds are so close it's tough to try to get inside the committee's heads and determine what they will look at closely. Suffice it to say there is enough evidence to do almost anything else. BU should be 3rd or 4th. Clarkson's rating is low enough that I cannot see them going to other factors in possible comparisons with BU, PC or UNH. PC could have wrapped up a bid by beating UNH, but they still aren't out of the running. And poor performances by NMU or Wisconsin, especially NMU, could open the door for all three of BU, PC and UNH to get in. And there are still the "outside" factors. Quite a mess if you ask me. I invite anyone else to put forth a different interpretation... --- Mike Machnik [log in to unmask] mikem@{beanpot,bubba}.ma30.bull.com