Erik writes: > mike writes: > > Without the numbers here, I would estimate that a > > pretty high percentage of WCHA/CCHA teams who won the first game did not > > win the 2nd. Personal experience of seeing back-to-back games between > > the same two teams also makes me believe the Game 1 loser fares better > > the second night. > > Hmmm, I guess I'd like to see some numbers. After watching 11 seasons of > 2-game series in the WCHA, my impression is that if the HOME team loses, it > will very likely come back and win the second game. If the visiting teams > loses the first game, it seems quite likely to lose the second as well. It > is very difficult to sweep a 2-game series on the road in the WCHA, but not > so unusual to do so at home. I agree that it is always difficult to sweep on the road, outside the WCHA too, so I guess the question is what happens when the visitors lose the first game - what percentage lose the 2nd as well? I'll try to dig up some numbers at home, please give me some time. Anyone else who wants to do so, feel welcome. I also want to add to what I said originally. I believe that even teams that are swept, are likely to lose the 2nd game by a smaller margin than the first (and so they usually play "better"). Of course I have no statistical basis for this at the moment, it's just an impression I have and have talked about with other people. This would show up as being swept, but it could be considered in favor of the losing team if they play a better game the second night. This brings up an interesting sidepoint that indirectly deals with the new NCAA format. Does a single game tend to be won by the "better team"? And if they do win, are they likely to win or lose the 2nd of a series? I believe that a single game affords the underdog a better chance to win than a three-game set. But what about two games? Is an underdog likely to split 2 games? This is difficult to determine in regular season records because it involves going back and setting a "favorite" for each series, which may or may not be a home team. Suffice it to say that most visitors, even if they are a better team than the home team, are satisfied to escape with a split. So, when I do my survey of past two-game sets, I'll be ignoring any idea of a "favorite" and just concentrate on home/visitor and also margin of victory. I've got DivI scores going back 5 years so this should be a pretty good sample. - mike (taking on more work for the good of the list...)