Back after a one-year hiatus (like
pretty much everything else in the
world), it’s the ECAC Playoff Permutations! As I've repeatedly
shown, I'm a
complete nut-ball about figuring stuff like this out, and the adoption
of
the three-point system with its regulation vs. overtime values, along
with
the ever-popular shoot-out, has made this whole process even more
enjoyable
than before. (Take notes, class – that is what is known as
"sarcasm".) And
then throw some teams into the mix that had to reschedule games and
are
playing three times this week instead of the usual two – well,
interesting
times indeed.
At the moment, the ECAC has more-or-less organized itself into three
tiers.
The top three have broken away from the pack, and the next three are
likely
to finish 4-6 in some order, leaving a whole mess of teams that could
finish
anywhere from sixth to twelfth.
Going into the final week of league play, here's a breakdown of where
each
team in the ECAC could finish. For each ECAC team, I've listed
the
following:
THIS WEEK: The team's games this week, its last two (or three) of
the
season.
ON THEIR OWN: The highest the team could finish with no help from
the
competition. Generally, this involves a
sweep in regulation.
BEST CASE: The highest the team could finish if everything goes
right.
WORST CASE: The lowest the team could finish if everything goes
wrong.
This generally involves getting swept while
teams nearby in the
standings win.
TIEBREAKERS: How the team would fare if they finished the season
tied with
some other team which is currently close (i.e.
within 6 or 9 points)
in the standings. Note that there may be
cases in which Team A "could
win or lose" the tiebreaker against Team B,
depending on whether there
are more than just those two teams tied.
For instance, Union wins the
head-to-head points tiebreaker against Princeton
5-1 (with a win in
regulation and one in overtime); however, in a
three-way tie involving
these two and Yale, Union would actually be
seeded lower than
Princeton. If a listed tiebreaker result
depends on more than just
those two teams being tied, it is marked with an
asterisk:
Union could win or
lose* against Princeton
For two or more teams tied in the standings, the ECAC tiebreakers
are:
1. Comparison of points in head-to-head games (non-conference
meetings,
such as in tournaments, do not count).
2. League wins in regulation and overtime (shootout results
do not apply).
3. Comparison of points against top four teams.
4. Comparison of points against top eight teams.
5. Goal differential head-to-head.
6. Goal differential against top four teams.
7. Goal differential against top eight teams.
Note that if the tie is among three or more teams, the tiebreaking steps
are
used in order until a team, or multiple teams, is/are separated from
the
"pack". Once that happens, the process starts all over to
break the
Remaining ties. For example, when the above steps are applied to a
four-way
tie, once one team is separated out leaving a three-way tie, the
procedure
goes back to the first step with the three remaining tied teams.
Without further ado, here's how the final week looks:
Quinnipiac:
THIS WEEK: Yale, Cornell, Colgate.
ON THEIR OWN: Six points will clinch the
top spot.
BEST CASE: First.
WORST CASE: Will finish third if they lose
all three games in
regulation (what a pain in the ass it is to have
to specify that),
Clarkson gets at least one point, and Harvard
gets at least eight.
TIEBREAKERS: Loses to Clarkson and
Harvard.
Clarkson:
THIS WEEK: Yale, Brown.
ON THEIR OWN: Wraps up second with two
points.
BEST CASE: Would take first with two
regulation wins if Quinnipiac
gets no more than five points.
WORST CASE: Falls to third if they get
swept in regulation and Harvard
gets at least eight points.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats Quinnipiac and
Harvard.
Harvard:
THIS WEEK: At Union, at Rensselaer, at
Princeton.
ON THEIR OWN: Has already clinched third
and can do no better than
that without help.
BEST CASE: Climbs to first with three wins
in regulation if Quinnipiac
and Clarkson each get no more than one
point.
WORST CASE: Third.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats Quinnipiac; loses to
Clarkson.
Cornell:
THIS WEEK: At Quinnipiac, at
Princeton.
ON THEIR OWN: Four points will give the
Big Red fourth place.
BEST CASE: Fourth.
WORST CASE: Finishes sixth with a pair of
regulation losses if Colgate
gets at least three points and Rensselaer sweeps
in regulation.
TIEBREAKERS: Loses to Colgate and
Rensselaer.
Colgate:
THIS WEEK: At Princeton, at
Quinnipiac.
ON THEIR OWN: Clinches fifth with three
points.
BEST CASE: Would rise to fourth with two
regulation wins if Cornell
gets no more than three points.
WORST CASE: Drops to seventh if they lose
twice in regulation (are you
sick of that word yet?), Rensselaer gets at
least four points, and
Princeton gets at least eight.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats Cornell and Rensselaer;
could win* or lose against
Princeton.
Rensselaer:
THIS WEEK: Dartmouth, Harvard.
ON THEIR OWN: Takes sixth place with five
points.
BEST CASE: Finishes fourth with two wins
in regulation if Cornell has
two regulation losses and Colgate gets no more
than two points.
WORST CASE: Slides down to tenth if they
get swept in regulation,
Union gets two regulation wins, Princeton and
Brown get at least five
points each, and Yale gets at least eight.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats Cornell, Brown, and
Union; loses to Colgate and
Yale; could win or lose against Princeton; could
win or lose* against
St. Lawrence
Princeton:
THIS WEEK: Colgate, Cornell, Harvard.
ON THEIR OWN: Would wrap up seventh place
with six points.
BEST CASE: Clinches fifth with three
regulation wins if Colgate does
not beat Quinnipiac in regulation and Rensselaer
gets no more than four
points.
WORST CASE: Winds up twelfth if they get
swept in regulation, Brown
does not lose twice in regulation, Union beats
Harvard, St. Lawrence
gets at least two points, Dartmouth gets at
least five, and Yale gets
at least five against Clarkson and
Quinnipiac.
TIEBREAKERS: Could win or lose against
Rensselaer and St. Lawrence;
could win or lose* against Colgate, Brown, and
Yale; could win* or lose
against Union and Dartmouth.
Brown:
THIS WEEK: At St. Lawrence, at
Clarkson.
ON THEIR OWN: The Bears clinch eighth with
a regulation sweep.
BEST CASE: Climbs to sixth with two
regulation wins if Rensselaer gets
no more than two points and Princeton gets no
more than five.
WORST CASE: Would drop to twelfth if they
lose twice in regulation,
Union gets at least one point, Dartmouth gets at
least four points, and
Yale gets at least five.
TIEBREAKERS: Loses to Rensselaer; could
win or lose against St.
Lawrence; could win or lose* against Dartmouth;
could win* or lose
against Princeton, Union, and Yale.
Union:
THIS WEEK: Harvard, Dartmouth.
ON THEIR OWN: Two regulation wins will
wrap up tenth place.
BEST CASE: Takes sixth with a sweep in
regulation if RPI has two
regulation losses, Princeton gets no more than
five points, and St.
Lawrence gets a win of some kind against
Brown.
WORST CASE: Ends up in twelfth place if
they get swept in regulation,
St. Lawrence does not have two regulation
losses, and Yale gets at
least three points.
TIEBREAKERS: Loses to Rensselaer; could
win or lose* against
Princeton, Brown, St. Lawrence, and Dartmouth;
could win* or lose
against Yale.
St. Lawrence:
THIS WEEK: Brown, Yale.
ON THEIR OWN: Takes ninth with a
regulation sweep.
BEST CASE: Gets sixth with two wins in
regulation if Rensselaer is
swept in regulation, Princeton gets no more than
four points, and Union
does not win twice in regulation.
WORST CASE: Falls to twelfth with a pair
of regulation losses if Union
gets at least one point and Dartmouth gets at
least three.
TIEBREAKERS: Could win or lose against
Princeton, Brown, Dartmouth,
and Yale; could win* or lose against Rensselaer
and Union.
Dartmouth:
THIS WEEK: At Rensselaer, at Union.
ON THEIR OWN: With a pair of wins in
regulation, Dartmouth wraps up
tenth.
BEST CASE: Would rise to seventh with a
regulation sweep if Princeton
gets no more than two points, Brown gets no more
than two points
against St. Lawrence and loses to Clarkson in
regulation, St. Lawrence
gets no more than three points, and Yale gets no
more than six.
WORST CASE: Slides to twelfth if they lose
twice in regulation and
Yale gets at least three points.
TIEBREAKERS: Could win or lose against St.
Lawrence; could win or
lose* against Princeton and Yale; could win* or
lose against Brown and
Union.
Yale:
THIS WEEK: At Quinnipiac, at Clarkson, at
St. Lawrence.
ON THEIR OWN: Takes ninth if they win
three times in regulation.
BEST CASE: Clinches sixth with three
regulation wins if Rensselaer
loses twice in regulation, Princeton gets no
more than four points,
Brown loses to St. Lawrence in regulation, and
Dartmouth also beats
Union in regulation (and that's the last time
I'm going to use that
word).
WORST CASE: Finishes twelfth if they get
no more than one point.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats Rensselaer; could win
or lose against St. Lawrence;
could win or lose* against Brown and Union;
could win* or lose against
Princeton and Dartmouth.
--
Bill
Fenwick
DJF 5/27/94
Cornell '86 and
'95
JCF 12/2/97
LET'S GO RED!!