Back after a one-year hiatus (like pretty much everything else in the
world), it’s the ECAC Playoff Permutations! As I've repeatedly shown, I'm a
complete nut-ball about figuring stuff like this out, and the adoption of
the three-point system with its regulation vs. overtime values, along with
the ever-popular shoot-out, has made this whole process even more enjoyable
than before. (Take notes, class – that is what is known as "sarcasm".) And
then throw some teams into the mix that had to reschedule games and are
playing three times this week instead of the usual two – well, interesting
times indeed.
At the moment, the ECAC has more-or-less organized itself into three tiers.
The top three have broken away from the pack, and the next three are likely
to finish 4-6 in some order, leaving a whole mess of teams that could finish
anywhere from sixth to twelfth.
Going into the final week of league play, here's a breakdown of where each
team in the ECAC could finish. For each ECAC team, I've listed the
following:
THIS WEEK: The team's games this week, its last two (or three) of the
season.
ON THEIR OWN: The highest the team could finish with no help from the
competition. Generally, this involves a sweep in regulation.
BEST CASE: The highest the team could finish if everything goes right.
WORST CASE: The lowest the team could finish if everything goes wrong.
This generally involves getting swept while teams nearby in the
standings win.
TIEBREAKERS: How the team would fare if they finished the season tied with
some other team which is currently close (i.e. within 6 or 9 points)
in the standings. Note that there may be cases in which Team A "could
win or lose" the tiebreaker against Team B, depending on whether there
are more than just those two teams tied. For instance, Union wins the
head-to-head points tiebreaker against Princeton 5-1 (with a win in
regulation and one in overtime); however, in a three-way tie involving
these two and Yale, Union would actually be seeded lower than
Princeton. If a listed tiebreaker result depends on more than just
those two teams being tied, it is marked with an asterisk:
Union could win or lose* against Princeton
For two or more teams tied in the standings, the ECAC tiebreakers are:
1. Comparison of points in head-to-head games (non-conference meetings,
such as in tournaments, do not count).
2. League wins in regulation and overtime (shootout results do not apply).
3. Comparison of points against top four teams.
4. Comparison of points against top eight teams.
5. Goal differential head-to-head.
6. Goal differential against top four teams.
7. Goal differential against top eight teams.
Note that if the tie is among three or more teams, the tiebreaking steps are
used in order until a team, or multiple teams, is/are separated from the
"pack". Once that happens, the process starts all over to break the
Remaining ties. For example, when the above steps are applied to a four-way
tie, once one team is separated out leaving a three-way tie, the procedure
goes back to the first step with the three remaining tied teams.
Without further ado, here's how the final week looks:
Quinnipiac:
THIS WEEK: Yale, Cornell, Colgate.
ON THEIR OWN: Six points will clinch the top spot.
BEST CASE: First.
WORST CASE: Will finish third if they lose all three games in
regulation (what a pain in the ass it is to have to specify that),
Clarkson gets at least one point, and Harvard gets at least eight.
TIEBREAKERS: Loses to Clarkson and Harvard.
Clarkson:
THIS WEEK: Yale, Brown.
ON THEIR OWN: Wraps up second with two points.
BEST CASE: Would take first with two regulation wins if Quinnipiac
gets no more than five points.
WORST CASE: Falls to third if they get swept in regulation and Harvard
gets at least eight points.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats Quinnipiac and Harvard.
Harvard:
THIS WEEK: At Union, at Rensselaer, at Princeton.
ON THEIR OWN: Has already clinched third and can do no better than
that without help.
BEST CASE: Climbs to first with three wins in regulation if Quinnipiac
and Clarkson each get no more than one point.
WORST CASE: Third.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats Quinnipiac; loses to Clarkson.
Cornell:
THIS WEEK: At Quinnipiac, at Princeton.
ON THEIR OWN: Four points will give the Big Red fourth place.
BEST CASE: Fourth.
WORST CASE: Finishes sixth with a pair of regulation losses if Colgate
gets at least three points and Rensselaer sweeps in regulation.
TIEBREAKERS: Loses to Colgate and Rensselaer.
Colgate:
THIS WEEK: At Princeton, at Quinnipiac.
ON THEIR OWN: Clinches fifth with three points.
BEST CASE: Would rise to fourth with two regulation wins if Cornell
gets no more than three points.
WORST CASE: Drops to seventh if they lose twice in regulation (are you
sick of that word yet?), Rensselaer gets at least four points, and
Princeton gets at least eight.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats Cornell and Rensselaer; could win* or lose against
Princeton.
Rensselaer:
THIS WEEK: Dartmouth, Harvard.
ON THEIR OWN: Takes sixth place with five points.
BEST CASE: Finishes fourth with two wins in regulation if Cornell has
two regulation losses and Colgate gets no more than two points.
WORST CASE: Slides down to tenth if they get swept in regulation,
Union gets two regulation wins, Princeton and Brown get at least five
points each, and Yale gets at least eight.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats Cornell, Brown, and Union; loses to Colgate and
Yale; could win or lose against Princeton; could win or lose* against
St. Lawrence
Princeton:
THIS WEEK: Colgate, Cornell, Harvard.
ON THEIR OWN: Would wrap up seventh place with six points.
BEST CASE: Clinches fifth with three regulation wins if Colgate does
not beat Quinnipiac in regulation and Rensselaer gets no more than four
points.
WORST CASE: Winds up twelfth if they get swept in regulation, Brown
does not lose twice in regulation, Union beats Harvard, St. Lawrence
gets at least two points, Dartmouth gets at least five, and Yale gets
at least five against Clarkson and Quinnipiac.
TIEBREAKERS: Could win or lose against Rensselaer and St. Lawrence;
could win or lose* against Colgate, Brown, and Yale; could win* or lose
against Union and Dartmouth.
Brown:
THIS WEEK: At St. Lawrence, at Clarkson.
ON THEIR OWN: The Bears clinch eighth with a regulation sweep.
BEST CASE: Climbs to sixth with two regulation wins if Rensselaer gets
no more than two points and Princeton gets no more than five.
WORST CASE: Would drop to twelfth if they lose twice in regulation,
Union gets at least one point, Dartmouth gets at least four points, and
Yale gets at least five.
TIEBREAKERS: Loses to Rensselaer; could win or lose against St.
Lawrence; could win or lose* against Dartmouth; could win* or lose
against Princeton, Union, and Yale.
Union:
THIS WEEK: Harvard, Dartmouth.
ON THEIR OWN: Two regulation wins will wrap up tenth place.
BEST CASE: Takes sixth with a sweep in regulation if RPI has two
regulation losses, Princeton gets no more than five points, and St.
Lawrence gets a win of some kind against Brown.
WORST CASE: Ends up in twelfth place if they get swept in regulation,
St. Lawrence does not have two regulation losses, and Yale gets at
least three points.
TIEBREAKERS: Loses to Rensselaer; could win or lose* against
Princeton, Brown, St. Lawrence, and Dartmouth; could win* or lose
against Yale.
St. Lawrence:
THIS WEEK: Brown, Yale.
ON THEIR OWN: Takes ninth with a regulation sweep.
BEST CASE: Gets sixth with two wins in regulation if Rensselaer is
swept in regulation, Princeton gets no more than four points, and Union
does not win twice in regulation.
WORST CASE: Falls to twelfth with a pair of regulation losses if Union
gets at least one point and Dartmouth gets at least three.
TIEBREAKERS: Could win or lose against Princeton, Brown, Dartmouth,
and Yale; could win* or lose against Rensselaer and Union.
Dartmouth:
THIS WEEK: At Rensselaer, at Union.
ON THEIR OWN: With a pair of wins in regulation, Dartmouth wraps up
tenth.
BEST CASE: Would rise to seventh with a regulation sweep if Princeton
gets no more than two points, Brown gets no more than two points
against St. Lawrence and loses to Clarkson in regulation, St. Lawrence
gets no more than three points, and Yale gets no more than six.
WORST CASE: Slides to twelfth if they lose twice in regulation and
Yale gets at least three points.
TIEBREAKERS: Could win or lose against St. Lawrence; could win or
lose* against Princeton and Yale; could win* or lose against Brown and
Union.
Yale:
THIS WEEK: At Quinnipiac, at Clarkson, at St. Lawrence.
ON THEIR OWN: Takes ninth if they win three times in regulation.
BEST CASE: Clinches sixth with three regulation wins if Rensselaer
loses twice in regulation, Princeton gets no more than four points,
Brown loses to St. Lawrence in regulation, and Dartmouth also beats
Union in regulation (and that's the last time I'm going to use that
word).
WORST CASE: Finishes twelfth if they get no more than one point.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats Rensselaer; could win or lose against St. Lawrence;
could win or lose* against Brown and Union; could win* or lose against
Princeton and Dartmouth.
--
Bill Fenwick DJF 5/27/94
Cornell '86 and '95 JCF 12/2/97
LET'S GO RED!!