Apologies to Bill and everyone else for not having the Playoff Possibilities scripts up this year. I just never found the time to update them for the wacky new point system. :-( John T. Whelan Cornell '91 On Mon, 21 Feb 2022, Bill Fenwick wrote: > Back after a one-year hiatus (like pretty much everything else in the > world), it’s the ECAC Playoff Permutations! As I've repeatedly shown, I'm a > complete nut-ball about figuring stuff like this out, and the adoption of > the three-point system with its regulation vs. overtime values, along with > the ever-popular shoot-out, has made this whole process even more enjoyable > than before. (Take notes, class – that is what is known as "sarcasm".) And > then throw some teams into the mix that had to reschedule games and are > playing three times this week instead of the usual two – well, interesting > times indeed. > > At the moment, the ECAC has more-or-less organized itself into three tiers. > The top three have broken away from the pack, and the next three are likely > to finish 4-6 in some order, leaving a whole mess of teams that could finish > anywhere from sixth to twelfth. > > Going into the final week of league play, here's a breakdown of where each > team in the ECAC could finish. For each ECAC team, I've listed the > following: > > THIS WEEK: The team's games this week, its last two (or three) of the > season. > ON THEIR OWN: The highest the team could finish with no help from the > competition. Generally, this involves a sweep in regulation. > BEST CASE: The highest the team could finish if everything goes right. > WORST CASE: The lowest the team could finish if everything goes wrong. > This generally involves getting swept while teams nearby in the > standings win. > TIEBREAKERS: How the team would fare if they finished the season tied with > some other team which is currently close (i.e. within 6 or 9 points) > in the standings. Note that there may be cases in which Team A "could > win or lose" the tiebreaker against Team B, depending on whether there > are more than just those two teams tied. For instance, Union wins the > head-to-head points tiebreaker against Princeton 5-1 (with a win in > regulation and one in overtime); however, in a three-way tie involving > these two and Yale, Union would actually be seeded lower than > Princeton. If a listed tiebreaker result depends on more than just > those two teams being tied, it is marked with an asterisk: > > Union could win or lose* against Princeton > > For two or more teams tied in the standings, the ECAC tiebreakers are: > > 1. Comparison of points in head-to-head games (non-conference meetings, > such as in tournaments, do not count). > 2. League wins in regulation and overtime (shootout results do not apply). > 3. Comparison of points against top four teams. > 4. Comparison of points against top eight teams. > 5. Goal differential head-to-head. > 6. Goal differential against top four teams. > 7. Goal differential against top eight teams. > > Note that if the tie is among three or more teams, the tiebreaking steps are > used in order until a team, or multiple teams, is/are separated from the > "pack". Once that happens, the process starts all over to break the > Remaining ties. For example, when the above steps are applied to a four-way > tie, once one team is separated out leaving a three-way tie, the procedure > goes back to the first step with the three remaining tied teams. > > > Without further ado, here's how the final week looks: > > Quinnipiac: > THIS WEEK: Yale, Cornell, Colgate. > ON THEIR OWN: Six points will clinch the top spot. > BEST CASE: First. > WORST CASE: Will finish third if they lose all three games in > regulation (what a pain in the ass it is to have to specify that), > Clarkson gets at least one point, and Harvard gets at least eight. > TIEBREAKERS: Loses to Clarkson and Harvard. > > Clarkson: > THIS WEEK: Yale, Brown. > ON THEIR OWN: Wraps up second with two points. > BEST CASE: Would take first with two regulation wins if Quinnipiac > gets no more than five points. > WORST CASE: Falls to third if they get swept in regulation and Harvard > gets at least eight points. > TIEBREAKERS: Beats Quinnipiac and Harvard. > > Harvard: > THIS WEEK: At Union, at Rensselaer, at Princeton. > ON THEIR OWN: Has already clinched third and can do no better than > that without help. > BEST CASE: Climbs to first with three wins in regulation if Quinnipiac > and Clarkson each get no more than one point. > WORST CASE: Third. > TIEBREAKERS: Beats Quinnipiac; loses to Clarkson. > > Cornell: > THIS WEEK: At Quinnipiac, at Princeton. > ON THEIR OWN: Four points will give the Big Red fourth place. > BEST CASE: Fourth. > WORST CASE: Finishes sixth with a pair of regulation losses if Colgate > gets at least three points and Rensselaer sweeps in regulation. > TIEBREAKERS: Loses to Colgate and Rensselaer. > > Colgate: > THIS WEEK: At Princeton, at Quinnipiac. > ON THEIR OWN: Clinches fifth with three points. > BEST CASE: Would rise to fourth with two regulation wins if Cornell > gets no more than three points. > WORST CASE: Drops to seventh if they lose twice in regulation (are you > sick of that word yet?), Rensselaer gets at least four points, and > Princeton gets at least eight. > TIEBREAKERS: Beats Cornell and Rensselaer; could win* or lose against > Princeton. > > Rensselaer: > THIS WEEK: Dartmouth, Harvard. > ON THEIR OWN: Takes sixth place with five points. > BEST CASE: Finishes fourth with two wins in regulation if Cornell has > two regulation losses and Colgate gets no more than two points. > WORST CASE: Slides down to tenth if they get swept in regulation, > Union gets two regulation wins, Princeton and Brown get at least five > points each, and Yale gets at least eight. > TIEBREAKERS: Beats Cornell, Brown, and Union; loses to Colgate and > Yale; could win or lose against Princeton; could win or lose* against > St. Lawrence > > Princeton: > THIS WEEK: Colgate, Cornell, Harvard. > ON THEIR OWN: Would wrap up seventh place with six points. > BEST CASE: Clinches fifth with three regulation wins if Colgate does > not beat Quinnipiac in regulation and Rensselaer gets no more than four > points. > WORST CASE: Winds up twelfth if they get swept in regulation, Brown > does not lose twice in regulation, Union beats Harvard, St. Lawrence > gets at least two points, Dartmouth gets at least five, and Yale gets > at least five against Clarkson and Quinnipiac. > TIEBREAKERS: Could win or lose against Rensselaer and St. Lawrence; > could win or lose* against Colgate, Brown, and Yale; could win* or lose > against Union and Dartmouth. > > Brown: > THIS WEEK: At St. Lawrence, at Clarkson. > ON THEIR OWN: The Bears clinch eighth with a regulation sweep. > BEST CASE: Climbs to sixth with two regulation wins if Rensselaer gets > no more than two points and Princeton gets no more than five. > WORST CASE: Would drop to twelfth if they lose twice in regulation, > Union gets at least one point, Dartmouth gets at least four points, and > Yale gets at least five. > TIEBREAKERS: Loses to Rensselaer; could win or lose against St. > Lawrence; could win or lose* against Dartmouth; could win* or lose > against Princeton, Union, and Yale. > > Union: > THIS WEEK: Harvard, Dartmouth. > ON THEIR OWN: Two regulation wins will wrap up tenth place. > BEST CASE: Takes sixth with a sweep in regulation if RPI has two > regulation losses, Princeton gets no more than five points, and St. > Lawrence gets a win of some kind against Brown. > WORST CASE: Ends up in twelfth place if they get swept in regulation, > St. Lawrence does not have two regulation losses, and Yale gets at > least three points. > TIEBREAKERS: Loses to Rensselaer; could win or lose* against > Princeton, Brown, St. Lawrence, and Dartmouth; could win* or lose > against Yale. > > St. Lawrence: > THIS WEEK: Brown, Yale. > ON THEIR OWN: Takes ninth with a regulation sweep. > BEST CASE: Gets sixth with two wins in regulation if Rensselaer is > swept in regulation, Princeton gets no more than four points, and Union > does not win twice in regulation. > WORST CASE: Falls to twelfth with a pair of regulation losses if Union > gets at least one point and Dartmouth gets at least three. > TIEBREAKERS: Could win or lose against Princeton, Brown, Dartmouth, > and Yale; could win* or lose against Rensselaer and Union. > > Dartmouth: > THIS WEEK: At Rensselaer, at Union. > ON THEIR OWN: With a pair of wins in regulation, Dartmouth wraps up > tenth. > BEST CASE: Would rise to seventh with a regulation sweep if Princeton > gets no more than two points, Brown gets no more than two points > against St. Lawrence and loses to Clarkson in regulation, St. Lawrence > gets no more than three points, and Yale gets no more than six. > WORST CASE: Slides to twelfth if they lose twice in regulation and > Yale gets at least three points. > TIEBREAKERS: Could win or lose against St. Lawrence; could win or > lose* against Princeton and Yale; could win* or lose against Brown and > Union. > > Yale: > THIS WEEK: At Quinnipiac, at Clarkson, at St. Lawrence. > ON THEIR OWN: Takes ninth if they win three times in regulation. > BEST CASE: Clinches sixth with three regulation wins if Rensselaer > loses twice in regulation, Princeton gets no more than four points, > Brown loses to St. Lawrence in regulation, and Dartmouth also beats > Union in regulation (and that's the last time I'm going to use that > word). > WORST CASE: Finishes twelfth if they get no more than one point. > TIEBREAKERS: Beats Rensselaer; could win or lose against St. Lawrence; > could win or lose* against Brown and Union; could win* or lose against > Princeton and Dartmouth. > > -- > Bill Fenwick DJF 5/27/94 > Cornell '86 and '95 JCF 12/2/97 > LET'S GO RED!! > > >