THE DAILY ASTRONOMER
Tuesday, June 30, 2020
Remote Planetarium 55: The "Invisible" Lunar Eclipse
Current circumstances compel us to deviate slightly from our itinerary. We progressed beyond the solar system's bounds around mid-May and are preparing to begin an exploration of variable stars. Before we proceed, however, we return to lunar eclipses. The impending "Independence Day Penumbral Lunar Eclipse!!" necessitates this rapid revistiation of lunar eclipses. (Tomorrow we start the variable star sequence.)
As the catchy name implies, this eclipse occurs on July 4th. Well, technically, it begins on July 4th and concludes on July 5th. Fortunately, as indicated in the map below, observers in our region will see the entire eclipse.
Unfortunately, there is nothing much to see. This upcoming event is actually a "partial penumbral eclipse," meaning that the only a section of the moon will move through the penumbra, the outer region of Earth's shadow. Those eager skywatchers hoping to behold a celestial spectacle will instead experience a crashing disappointment. Whereas a total penumbral eclipse subtly darkens the entire moon, a partial penumbral eclipse casts a very faint shadow only on one part of it. Even at "maximum" eclipse, that shadow is imperceptibly faint.
So, why bother to devote an entire class to it?
Well, in the first place, this eclipse has garnered unexpected media coverage. Many people are hoping to see a gorgeous lunar eclipse after watching the fireworks display. Realize that municipal authorities might put the kibosh on the pyrotechnics due to social distancing requirements and the current condition of the landscape which is so parched a hostile glance could inflame it. It is our task to be wet blankets and tell you that the follow up eclipse will prove to be a non-event, as well.
Secondly, this eclipse does give us another opportunity to discuss the Saros cycle. Every solar and lunar eclipse is part of Saros cycle of eclipses. Each eclipse within a given Saros shares a similar geometry and position with all the others in the same cycle. Each successive eclipse within the Saros is separated by 18 years and 11 days.
This impending eclipse is the 3rd of 71 lunar eclipses within Lunar Saros Cycle 149. What we will be witnessing (though not seeing) on July 4th/5th is the beginning of a Saros cycle that started in 1984 and will finally end in the year 3246.
The first Saros 149 eclipse occurred on June 13, 1984. [In that same month, Cirque du Soleil was founded; and, quite importantly, the final episode of the Britcom "The Young Ones" was broadcast on BBC 2.] This was a partial penumbral eclipse during which only a small part of the moon's upper regions passed through the penumbra.
The second Saros 149 event happened on June 24, 2002. [Earlier that year, the 2001 Mars Odyssey Space Probe began mapping the Martian surface.] The image below shows the moon's path during that partial penumbral eclipse. Only a small section of the moon glided through the outer shadow.
The third 149 Saros cycle eclipse occurs on July 4/5th. Notice the moon's path during that event:
The moon's path is slightly higher than the one it followed in 2002. Consequently, more of the moon will pass through the penumbra. Still, the resultant darkening will be negligible.
When will the next Saros 149 lunar eclipse occur?
18 years and 11 days later: July 16, 2038
What can we conclude about this eclipse?
First, we know the moon's path will be higher during this eclipse than it was in 2020. It will still be a partial penumbral eclipse, meaning that it won't prove to be a dazzling event.
We can see that the moon's path is higher and more of it passes through the penumbra. Each Saros Cycle 149 eclipse happens at the moon's descending node, the intersection point between Earth's orbit and the moon's. Each successive 149 eclipse moves the moon northward.
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Remember that lunar eclipses that are part of even numbered Saros cycles occur at the ascending note. Lunar eclipses that are part of an odd number Saros cycles occur at the descending node.
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Can you predict the dates of the next three 149 Saros cycle eclipses?
- July 16, 2056
- August 7, 2074
- August 17, 2092
All of those eclipses will still be penumbral. However, the following 149 lunar eclipse on August 29, 2110, will be partial, albeit only just. A thin sliver of the moon will pass through the umbra, the dark, inner region of Earth's shadow.
The first total lunar eclipse in this Saros cycle will occur on April 16, 2489. We see in the image below that the entire moon will move through the umbra.
By studying the world map below we see that observers within our throat of the forest will be enthralled by the eclipse which will be in progress at moon rise. Assuming, of course, that our descendants will not have evolved to the level of demi-god and won't consider such trivial celestial events worthy of notice.
Using our knowledge of Saros cycles, we can expect the following 149 lunar eclipse to occur on April 28, 2507! Yes, that total lunar eclipse will be of longer duration because the moon's path through the umbra will be higher.
The last total lunar eclipse in 149 will happen on September 17, 2741.
The last lunar eclipse -also a partial penumbral- occurs on July 20, 3246.
While the upcoming eclipse event won't scintillate the senses, it does allow us the opportunity to contemplate the power of mathematical astronomy to make accurate predictions about the remote future.
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Today's skywatching tip:
Don't bother venturing out to observe the July 4th/5th penumbral lunar eclipse. Wait for the beautiful lunar eclipse on November 19, 2021. Although technically partial, this eclipse will appear nearly total.
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Tomorrow, back out into deep space with extrinsic variable stars.