Thanks so much for reaching out, Chris. This is very helpful. I didn't include the lag between exposure, onset of symptoms, testing and results of testing, but this adds to the case. Tora ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Tora Johnson, PhD (she/ her) Chair, Division of Environmental & Biological Sciences, Science Hall 107a Director of GIS/ Associate Professor, GIS Lab & Service Center, Torrey Hall 223 University of Maine at Machias [log in to unmask] ~ (207) 255-1214 ~ Twitter: @toradignity Need to make an appointment with Tora during office hours? Go to http://bit.ly/toraofficehours Like the UMM GIS Program on Facebook! https://www.facebook.com/ummgis Like the UMM Science Division on Facebook! https://www.facebook.com/ummscience/ Looking for internships, jobs or grad school opportunities? https://sites.google.com/a/maine.edu/careers-umm-science/ On Thu, Apr 2, 2020 at 11:28 AM Chris Paulu <[log in to unmask]> wrote: > Thanks, Tora – for the link, and for the earnest plea for better > contextualizing/communication. > > > > The article you linked is from 3/16, and is relevant. But perhaps you > intended to share this one posted yesterday? > > > > [image: cid:image001.png@01D608D0.DF9BFC90] > > > > > https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/01/us/coronavirus-covid-19-symptoms-data.html > > > > -- > > > > cheers, > > Chris > > > > > > > *--------------------------------------------------------------------------------* > > *| Chris Paulu, Sc.D.* > > *| Epidemiologist, Assistant Research Professor* > > *| Muskie School of Public Service* > > *| University of Southern Maine* > > *| and* > > *| Environmental & Occupational Health Programs * > > *| Maine Center for Disease Control & Prevention* > > > *--------------------------------------------------------------------------------* > > > > > > *From: *Maine GeoNews <[log in to unmask]> on behalf of Tora > Johnson <[log in to unmask]> > *Reply-To: *Tora Johnson <[log in to unmask]> > *Date: *Thursday, April 2, 2020 at 9:10 AM > *To: *"[log in to unmask]" <[log in to unmask]> > *Subject: *Re: Need for Disclaimers on Covid-19 Maps > > > > *EXTERNAL: This email originated from outside of the State of Maine Mail > System. Do not click links or open attachments unless you recognize the > sender and know the content is safe.* > > One more relevant item in today's New York Times: "For every known case of > coronavirus, another five to 10 cases are out there undetected, a new study > suggests." *MailScanner has detected a possible fraud attempt from > "nam03.safelinks.protection.outlook.com" claiming to be* > https://nyti.ms/2wNeNZz > <https://nam03.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fnyti.ms%2F2wNeNZz&data=02%7C01%7Cchris.paulu%40MAINE.GOV%7C46be0fcbc52a42e59f4408d7d706c171%7C413fa8ab207d4b629bcdea1a8f2f864e%7C0%7C0%7C637214298183437154&sdata=oboL1y2vtlMIaL6i7sPx4SqbyD2QNyOSfxgLzn2SiqE%3D&reserved=0> > > > ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ > > Tora Johnson, PhD (she/ her) > > Chair, Division of Environmental & Biological Sciences, Science Hall 107a > Director of GIS/ Associate Professor, GIS Lab & Service Center, Torrey > Hall 223 > > University of Maine at Machias > [log in to unmask] ~ (207) 255-1214 ~ Twitter: @toradignity > > > Need to make an appointment with Tora during office hours? Go to *MailScanner > has detected a possible fraud attempt from > "nam03.safelinks.protection.outlook.com" claiming to be* > http://bit.ly/toraofficehours > <https://nam03.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fbit.ly%2Ftoraofficehours&data=02%7C01%7Cchris.paulu%40MAINE.GOV%7C46be0fcbc52a42e59f4408d7d706c171%7C413fa8ab207d4b629bcdea1a8f2f864e%7C0%7C0%7C637214298183447144&sdata=S7IETMDOQdnCWa0rSH88kwchj%2FQhkFoQWyqhOLVgHZY%3D&reserved=0> > > > > Like the UMM GIS Program on Facebook! *MailScanner has detected a > possible fraud attempt from "nam03.safelinks.protection.outlook.com" > claiming to be* https://www.facebook.com/ummgis > <https://nam03.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2Fummgis&data=02%7C01%7Cchris.paulu%40MAINE.GOV%7C46be0fcbc52a42e59f4408d7d706c171%7C413fa8ab207d4b629bcdea1a8f2f864e%7C0%7C0%7C637214298183457134&sdata=E8yWPXgTdwpha4WuxhvuP5UptqJVcrFPTlFZcYO5DKA%3D&reserved=0> > > Like the UMM Science Division on Facebook! *MailScanner has detected a > possible fraud attempt from "nam03.safelinks.protection.outlook.com" > claiming to be* https://www.facebook.com/ummscience/ > <https://nam03.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2Fummscience%2F&data=02%7C01%7Cchris.paulu%40MAINE.GOV%7C46be0fcbc52a42e59f4408d7d706c171%7C413fa8ab207d4b629bcdea1a8f2f864e%7C0%7C0%7C637214298183457134&sdata=n71LEPZdDUVFA4uxzpQtBa47UHZGsQErKlf6xlfJhiM%3D&reserved=0> > > Looking for internships, jobs or grad school opportunities? *MailScanner > has detected a possible fraud attempt from > "nam03.safelinks.protection.outlook.com" claiming to be* > https://sites.google.com/a/maine.edu/careers-umm-science/ > <https://nam03.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fsites.google.com%2Fa%2Fmaine.edu%2Fcareers-umm-science%2F&data=02%7C01%7Cchris.paulu%40MAINE.GOV%7C46be0fcbc52a42e59f4408d7d706c171%7C413fa8ab207d4b629bcdea1a8f2f864e%7C0%7C0%7C637214298183467129&sdata=fAXLT21BszplGpcdgqM3tgtzAWkGpUo2Dnj841OmjqU%3D&reserved=0> > > > > > > On Wed, Apr 1, 2020 at 7:57 PM Tora Johnson <[log in to unmask]> wrote: > > Dear Colleagues, > > > > I hope you are all safe and well. I have been discussing covid-19 maps > with fellow geographers around the state, and we believe we've identified > an important problem. Nearly all of the maps we have seen show only the > number of confirmed covid-19 cases. In spite of the fact that public health > officials consistently say that these numbers represent only some of the > cases and that the virus has likely already made its way into every county > in Maine, we have heard many people, one-on-one and on social media, say > that the virus is "not in my county" as an excuse for not practicing social > distancing. Maps showing confirmed cases are probably part of the problem. > > > > The folly of the "not-in-my-county" excuse was driven home for me over the > last couple of weeks when my own 23 year old kid and their roommate came > down with apparent cases of covid-19 in Portland. They were diagnosed by > their doctors via telemedicine and never tested because they lacked other > risk factors. Since this is currently the practice, clearly the number of > actual cases is much, much larger than the number of confirmed cases, and > the potential for spread across the state is much greater than confirmed > case numbers would indicate. Both are recovering and are in quarantine at > home, thank goodness. > > > > From past studies on how people use and derive meaning from maps, we know > that people often skip written information and derive a simplified message > from a map or other such easily digested visualization. The maps of > confirmed cases that are so common in the press and social media are likely > no exception, so we believe many people are glancing at these maps and > drawing erroneous conclusions. *The geographers I have spoken with have > agreed to begin including high-profile disclaimers in their maps to > indicate that the number of actual cases is likely much larger and the > virus is likely much more widespread than the number of confirmed cases > would indicate. I'm writing to urge anyone creating such maps to do the > same.* > > > > Currently, the state's official case count page > <https://nam03.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.maine.gov%2FDHHS%2Fmecdc%2Finfectious-disease%2Fepi%2Fairborne%2Fcoronavirus.shtml&data=02%7C01%7Cchris.paulu%40MAINE.GOV%7C46be0fcbc52a42e59f4408d7d706c171%7C413fa8ab207d4b629bcdea1a8f2f864e%7C0%7C0%7C637214298183477126&sdata=IBzSB%2BsUjlmtl45ctBaElYbCNjY6kkQIBSvhy2QlTVw%3D&reserved=0> > includes the following disclaimer, however, it is in plain text and > separate from the map: "This is likely an underrepresentation of the true > number of cases in Maine since not all individuals are being tested. For > individuals not considered to be at high risk, medical providers are > currently advised to diagnose COVID-19 based on symptoms." So, it is likely > that many people go to that page and glance at the map without reading the > disclaimer. I have written to the CDC to recommend that they raise the > profile of the disclaimer and place it on the map itself. > > > > I gather from what I have read that there is no way without more > widespread and targeted testing to estimate the actual number of cases > around the state (or anywhere else in the country). So, I understand that > the number of confirmed cases is the only quantitative information > available to report. Perhaps we can all work on improving the way this > information is transmitted to the public with more careful map design. > > > > I hope you find this information helpful. > > > > Be well! > > Tora > > ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ > > Tora Johnson, PhD (she/ her) > > Chair, Division of Environmental & Biological Sciences, Science Hall 107a > Director of GIS/ Associate Professor, GIS Lab & Service Center, Torrey > Hall 223 > > University of Maine at Machias > [log in to unmask] ~ (207) 255-1214 ~ Twitter: @toradignity > > > Need to make an appointment with Tora during office hours? Go to *MailScanner > has detected a possible fraud attempt from > "nam03.safelinks.protection.outlook.com" claiming to be* > http://bit.ly/toraofficehours > <https://nam03.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fbit.ly%2Ftoraofficehours&data=02%7C01%7Cchris.paulu%40MAINE.GOV%7C46be0fcbc52a42e59f4408d7d706c171%7C413fa8ab207d4b629bcdea1a8f2f864e%7C0%7C0%7C637214298183477126&sdata=UPr3bmjuIXxhTchGcgF6kH%2BbG7vnvIfwoXlksEeM6oc%3D&reserved=0> > > > > Like the UMM GIS Program on Facebook! *MailScanner has detected a > possible fraud attempt from "nam03.safelinks.protection.outlook.com" > claiming to be* https://www.facebook.com/ummgis > <https://nam03.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2Fummgis&data=02%7C01%7Cchris.paulu%40MAINE.GOV%7C46be0fcbc52a42e59f4408d7d706c171%7C413fa8ab207d4b629bcdea1a8f2f864e%7C0%7C0%7C637214298183487120&sdata=Ey0VWNima8SsKVwEAX2dhh0rrVWp421ADDaRMtNWReM%3D&reserved=0> > > Like the UMM Science Division on Facebook! *MailScanner has detected a > possible fraud attempt from "nam03.safelinks.protection.outlook.com" > claiming to be* https://www.facebook.com/ummscience/ > <https://nam03.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2Fummscience%2F&data=02%7C01%7Cchris.paulu%40MAINE.GOV%7C46be0fcbc52a42e59f4408d7d706c171%7C413fa8ab207d4b629bcdea1a8f2f864e%7C0%7C0%7C637214298183487120&sdata=0pR2hJLJCEDBSMpGGog9G8ATWDLxjoC0qjfNXgtPnEs%3D&reserved=0> > > Looking for internships, jobs or grad school opportunities? *MailScanner > has detected a possible fraud attempt from > "nam03.safelinks.protection.outlook.com" claiming to be* > https://sites.google.com/a/maine.edu/careers-umm-science/ > <https://nam03.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fsites.google.com%2Fa%2Fmaine.edu%2Fcareers-umm-science%2F&data=02%7C01%7Cchris.paulu%40MAINE.GOV%7C46be0fcbc52a42e59f4408d7d706c171%7C413fa8ab207d4b629bcdea1a8f2f864e%7C0%7C0%7C637214298183497115&sdata=L6heWPzZpa%2BCyQjQGxNWTPhpLYCg6qOpYWNXc2Qghkc%3D&reserved=0> > > ----------------------------------------------------------------------- > This list Maine GeoNews (GEOLIBRARY-L) is an unmoderated discussion list > for all Maine GIS Users. 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