Following on our recent conversations, folks might be interested in
this piece in the NYT reporting on some modeling efforts at the
University of Texas.

Does My County Have an Epidemic? Estimates Show Hidden Transmission
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/03/us/coronavirus-county-epidemics.html

Probability of current COVID-19 outbreaks in all US counties
Emily Javan, Dr. Spencer J. Fox, Dr. Lauren Ancel Meyers
https://cid.utexas.edu/sites/default/files/cid/files/covid-risk-maps_counties_4.3.2020.pdf

-Andy

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