One more relevant item in today's New York Times: "For every known case of coronavirus, another five to 10 cases are out there undetected, a new study suggests." https://nyti.ms/2wNeNZz ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Tora Johnson, PhD (she/ her) Chair, Division of Environmental & Biological Sciences, Science Hall 107a Director of GIS/ Associate Professor, GIS Lab & Service Center, Torrey Hall 223 University of Maine at Machias [log in to unmask] ~ (207) 255-1214 ~ Twitter: @toradignity Need to make an appointment with Tora during office hours? Go to http://bit.ly/toraofficehours Like the UMM GIS Program on Facebook! https://www.facebook.com/ummgis Like the UMM Science Division on Facebook! https://www.facebook.com/ummscience/ Looking for internships, jobs or grad school opportunities? https://sites.google.com/a/maine.edu/careers-umm-science/ On Wed, Apr 1, 2020 at 7:57 PM Tora Johnson <[log in to unmask]> wrote: > Dear Colleagues, > > I hope you are all safe and well. I have been discussing covid-19 maps > with fellow geographers around the state, and we believe we've identified > an important problem. Nearly all of the maps we have seen show only the > number of confirmed covid-19 cases. In spite of the fact that public health > officials consistently say that these numbers represent only some of the > cases and that the virus has likely already made its way into every county > in Maine, we have heard many people, one-on-one and on social media, say > that the virus is "not in my county" as an excuse for not practicing social > distancing. Maps showing confirmed cases are probably part of the problem. > > The folly of the "not-in-my-county" excuse was driven home for me over the > last couple of weeks when my own 23 year old kid and their roommate came > down with apparent cases of covid-19 in Portland. They were diagnosed by > their doctors via telemedicine and never tested because they lacked other > risk factors. Since this is currently the practice, clearly the number of > actual cases is much, much larger than the number of confirmed cases, and > the potential for spread across the state is much greater than confirmed > case numbers would indicate. Both are recovering and are in quarantine at > home, thank goodness. > > From past studies on how people use and derive meaning from maps, we know > that people often skip written information and derive a simplified message > from a map or other such easily digested visualization. The maps of > confirmed cases that are so common in the press and social media are likely > no exception, so we believe many people are glancing at these maps and > drawing erroneous conclusions. *The geographers I have spoken with have > agreed to begin including high-profile disclaimers in their maps to > indicate that the number of actual cases is likely much larger and the > virus is likely much more widespread than the number of confirmed cases > would indicate. I'm writing to urge anyone creating such maps to do the > same.* > > Currently, the state's official case count page > <https://www.maine.gov/DHHS/mecdc/infectious-disease/epi/airborne/coronavirus.shtml> > includes the following disclaimer, however, it is in plain text and > separate from the map: "This is likely an underrepresentation of the true > number of cases in Maine since not all individuals are being tested. For > individuals not considered to be at high risk, medical providers are > currently advised to diagnose COVID-19 based on symptoms." So, it is likely > that many people go to that page and glance at the map without reading the > disclaimer. I have written to the CDC to recommend that they raise the > profile of the disclaimer and place it on the map itself. > > I gather from what I have read that there is no way without more > widespread and targeted testing to estimate the actual number of cases > around the state (or anywhere else in the country). So, I understand that > the number of confirmed cases is the only quantitative information > available to report. Perhaps we can all work on improving the way this > information is transmitted to the public with more careful map design. > > I hope you find this information helpful. > > Be well! > Tora > ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ > Tora Johnson, PhD (she/ her) > Chair, Division of Environmental & Biological Sciences, Science Hall 107a > Director of GIS/ Associate Professor, GIS Lab & Service Center, Torrey > Hall 223 > University of Maine at Machias > [log in to unmask] ~ (207) 255-1214 ~ Twitter: @toradignity > > Need to make an appointment with Tora during office hours? Go to > http://bit.ly/toraofficehours > > Like the UMM GIS Program on Facebook! https://www.facebook.com/ummgis > Like the UMM Science Division on Facebook! > https://www.facebook.com/ummscience/ > Looking for internships, jobs or grad school opportunities? > https://sites.google.com/a/maine.edu/careers-umm-science/ > ----------------------------------------------------------------------- This list Maine GeoNews (GEOLIBRARY-L) is an unmoderated discussion list for all Maine GIS Users. If you no longer wish to receive e-mail from this list, you can remove your name and email address yourself at the this web address: https://lists.maine.edu/cgi-bin/wa?SUBED1=GEOLIBRARY-L&A=1 Or, you may also request that your name be removed by sending email to: [log in to unmask]