Once again, it's time for the ECAC Playoff
Permutations! St. Lawrence has,
well, wrapped up last place, but there is
plenty of jockeying left for the
other positions, as first through fourth are
currently separated by two
points, fifth through seventh by two points,
and eighth through eleventh by
four.
Going into the final weekend of league play, here's a breakdown of where
each team in the ECAC could finish. As always, I'm greatly indebted to
John Whelan's excellent playoff possibilities script at
http://www.elynah.com/tbrw/2019/ecac.cgiframe.shtml
For each ECAC team, I've listed the
following:
THIS WEEKEND: The team's weekend games, its last two of the season.
ON THEIR OWN: The highest the team could finish with no help from the
competition. Generally, this involves a
weekend sweep.
BEST CASE: The highest the team could finish if everything goes right.
WORST CASE: The lowest the team could finish if everything goes wrong.
This generally involves getting swept while
teams nearby in the
standings win.
TIEBREAKERS: How the team would fare if they finished the season tied
with
some other team which is currently close (i.e.
within 4 points) in the
standings. Note that there may be cases in
which Team A "could win or
lose" the tiebreaker against Team B,
depending on whether there are
more than just those two teams tied. For
instance, Dartmouth wins the
head-to-head tiebreaker against Yale with a
2-0 record; however, in a
three-way tie involving these two and Brown, Dartmouth
would actually
be seeded lower than Yale. If a listed tiebreaker result depends on
more than just those two teams being tied, it
is marked with an
asterisk:
Dartmouth could
win or lose* against Yale
For two or more teams tied in the standings, the ECAC tiebreakers are:
1. Head-to-head record in ECAC games (non-conference meetings, such
as in
tournaments, do not count).
2. League wins.
3. Record against the top four teams in the conference.
4. Record against the top eight teams in the conference.
5. Goal differential (net goals) head-to-head.
6. Goal differential against the top four teams in the conference.
7. Goal differential against the top eight teams in the conference.
Note that if the tie is among three or more teams, the tiebreaking steps are
used in order until a team, or multiple teams, is/are separated from the
"pack". Once that happens, the process starts all over to break
the remaining
ties. For example, when the above steps are applied to a four-way tie,
once
one team is separated out leaving a three-way tie, the procedure goes back to
the first step with the three remaining tied teams.
Without further ado, here's how the final weekend looks:
Cornell:
THIS WEEKEND: At St. Lawrence, at Clarkson.
ON THEIR OWN: The Big Red takes first
place with a sweep.
BEST CASE: First.
WORST CASE: Falls to fifth with two losses
if Quinnipiac does not get
swept, Harvard gets at least two points, and
Yale wins twice.
TIEBREAKERS:
Beats Harvard; loses to Quinnipiac; could win or lose
against Clarkson; could win* or lose against
Yale.
Qunnipiac:
THIS WEEKEND: At Brown, at Yale.
ON THEIR OWN: Two wins will lock up second
place.
BEST CASE: Takes first with a sweep if Cornell
does not win twice.
WORST CASE: Would finish fifth if they get
swept, Harvard does not
lose twice, Clarkson gets at least two points,
and Yale also beats
Princeton.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats Cornell; could win or
lose against Harvard,
Clarkson, and Yale.
Harvard:
THIS
WEEKEND: At Rensselaer, at Union.
ON THEIR OWN: Clinches third with a pair
of wins.
BEST CASE: Climbs to first with a sweep if
Quinnipiac does not win
twice and Cornell gets no more than two
points.
WORST CASE: Ends up in fifth place if they
get swept, Clarkson gets
at least two points, and Yale sweeps.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats Yale; loses to Cornell;
could win or lose against
Quinnipiac and Clarkson.
Clarkson:
THIS
WEEKEND: Colgate, Cornell.
ON THEIR OWN: Three points will give the Golden
Knights fourth place.
BEST CASE: Wraps up first with a sweep if
neither Quinnipiac nor
Harvard gets more than two points.
WORST CASE: Drops to fifth with two losses
if Yale gets at least
three
points.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats Brown; could win or
lose against Cornell,
Quinnipiac, Harvard, and Yale; could win or
lose* against Dartmouth.
Yale:
THIS
WEEKEND: Princeton, Quinnipiac.
ON THEIR OWN: Gets fifth with three
points.
BEST CASE: Finishes second with a pair of
wins if Cornell, Quinni-
piac,
and Harvard all get swept.
WORST CASE: Would slide to seventh if they
lose twice, Brown gets at
least three points, and Dartmouth gets at
least two points.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats Brown; loses to
Harvard; could win or lose against
Quinnipiac and Clarkson; could win or lose*
against Cornell; could win*
or lose against Dartmouth.
Brown:
THIS
WEEKEND: Quinnipiac, Princeton.
ON THEIR OWN: A sweep guarantees sixth
place.
BEST CASE: Rises to fifth with two wins if
Yale gets no more than one
point.
WORST CASE: Would finish ninth with two
losses if Union and Colgate
both sweep and Dartmouth does not lose to Rensselaer.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats Dartmouth and Union;
loses to Clarkson and Yale;
could win* or lose against Colgate.
Dartmouth:
THIS
WEEKEND: At Union, at Rensselaer.
ON THEIR OWN: Clinches seventh by not
losing to Union or by beating
Rensselaer.
BEST CASE: Would climb to fourth with a
sweep if Clarkson loses twice,
Yale
gets two points, and Brown does not win twice.
This would set up a
three-way tie for fourth among Dartmouth, Clarkson,
and Yale, with the
tiebreakers giving Dartmouth fourth place.
WORST CASE: Falls to eighth with two
losses if Union does not lose to
Harvard.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats Colgate; loses to Brown
and Union; could win or
lose* against Yale; could win* or lose against
Clarkson.
Union:
THIS
WEEKEND: Dartmouth, Harvard.
ON THEIR OWN: Wraps up eighth with three
points.
BEST CASE: Will finish sixth with two wins
if Brown loses twice and
Dartmouth does not beat Rensselaer.
WORST CASE: Slides to eleventh place if
(you might want to sit down
for this one) they lose twice, with the two
losses coming by a total
of
six goals or more, Princeton wins twice, Clarkson gets swept, Yale
beats Quinnipiac, Dartmouth also beats Rensselaer,
and Rensselaer beats
Harvard.
And yes, this one could go all the way down to goal differ-
entail
against the top 8.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats Dartmouth and Colgate;
loses to Brown and
Rensselaer; could win or lose against
Princeton.
Colgate:
THIS
WEEKEND: At Clarkson, at St. Lawrence.
ON THEIR OWN: A sweep locks up ninth
place.
BEST CASE: Gets seventh with a pair of
wins if Brown loses twice,
Dartmouth
gets at least one point, and Union gets no more than two
points.
WORST CASE: Would fall to eleventh if they
get swept, Princeton wins
twice, and Rensselaer gets at least two
points.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats Princeton; loses to
Dartmouth and Union; could win
or lose against Rensselaer; could win or lose*
against Brown.
Rensselaer:
THIS
WEEKEND: Harvard, Dartmouth.
ON THEIR OWN: Three points will wrap up
tenth.
BEST CASE: Finishes seventh with a sweep
if Colgate does not win
twice and Union gets no more than two points.
WORST CASE: Ends up in eleventh with two
losses if Princeton gets at
least one win.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats Union; could win or
lose against Colgate and
Princeton.
Princeton:
THIS
WEEKEND: At Yale, at Brown.
ON THEIR OWN: Has already clinched eleventh
and can do no better
without help.
BEST CASE: Climbs to ninth with a sweep
if Colgate loses twice and
Rensselaer gets no more than one point.
WORST CASE: Eleventh.
TIEBREAKERS: Loses to Colgate; could win
or lose against Union and
Rensselaer.