My friend Robin Lock of St. Lawrence University is producing his CHODR ranking of Division I men's (and women's) ice hockey again this year. It's now available on his web site at http://it.stlawu.edu/~chodr/ This ranking has special interest because (1) it measures offensive and defensive performance and (2) can predict scores of upcoming games. (Note that CHODR has been changed from an additive to a multiplicative model, increasing its performance from the ranking used a few years ago. It typically predicts the winner 70% of the time, ignoring ties). This ranking seems to give *no* favor to high scoring, poor defensive teams in favor of defensive-minded winning teams. As a case in point, here's a sample from this week's ranking. Maine is ranked considerably higher in it than in other rankings and in the polls. Based on games played through 12/04/00 Division I Offense Defense Overall Rank Team Record Rating Rank Rating Rank Rating ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 Michigan State 11 1 3 3.67 12 1.37 1 2.68 2 Michigan 11 3 3 4.42 5 1.97 7 2.24 3 North Dakota 12 2 4 5.06 2 2.28 13 2.22 4 Maine 6 4 4 3.32 23 1.53 2 2.17 5 Boston College 11 3 0 4.70 3 2.23 12 2.11 6 Providence 8 3 3 4.12 7 2.11 10 1.95 7 Minnesota 9 5 2 4.48 4 2.30 15 1.95 8 St. Cloud 10 3 1 3.43 19 1.78 3 1.93 9 New Hampshire 10 3 3 3.40 21 1.84 4 1.84 10 Ohio State 9 4 1 3.70 10 2.02 9 1.84 11 Colorado College 10 3 1 3.39 22 1.98 8 1.71 12 Alaska-Anchorage 5 6 1 3.06 28 1.97 6 1.56 (of 60 teams) For a sample of CHODR predictions, here are those for HEA this week: Wednesday, December 6: Boston College 4.43 at Northeastern 2.98 (the teams played to a 0-0 tie last night .. wts) Friday, December 8: Maine 3.07 at Boston University 1.80 UMass-Amherst 1.90 at Providence 5.39 Sunday, December 10: Boston College 2.32 at Maine 2.72 ... and the rankings for women's .... Based on games played through 12/04/00 Division I Offense Defense Overall Rank Team Record Rating Rank Rating Rank Rating ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 Harvard 8 3 0 4.65 2 1.51 2 3.07 2 Dartmouth 8 0 1 4.62 3 1.70 5 2.72 3 Minnesota 11 2 1 4.15 5 1.58 3 2.63 4 Minnesota-Duluth 11 3 0 5.10 1 1.94 10 2.63 5 Wisconsin 11 3 2 4.24 4 1.99 11 2.13 6 New Hampshire 9 4 0 3.58 7 1.68 4 2.12 7 Brown 5 3 1 3.67 6 1.74 7 2.11 8 St. Lawrence 7 3 2 3.12 10 1.49 1 2.09 9 Northeastern 8 3 0 3.30 9 1.88 9 1.76 10 Providence 8 2 1 2.41 12 1.73 6 1.40 11 Niagara 7 7 0 2.27 14 1.84 8 1.24 12 Mercyhurst 5 7 2 2.25 15 2.17 12 1.04 13 St. Cloud 5 9 0 3.32 8 3.34 19 0.99 14 Maine 5 7 0 2.15 17 2.22 13 0.97 15 Cornell 3 6 1 2.91 11 3.04 16 0.96 (of 23 teams) The predictions have Maine beating Wayne State 4.02-0.74 on today's and Saturday's games. :-0 cheers, wayne save Wayne T. Smith [log in to unmask] Old Town Landing The College Hockey lists, Hockey-L and Hockey3 at http://lists.Maine.edu/