>Granted their Hockey East Record isn't what it should be, the mens team >still has 8 games remaining, all of which they should win, which would Being the favorite to win each game doesn't make you a favorite to win all games. >give them a record of 14-7-3 in Hockey East, and probably a 3 or 4 seed That's 31 points. Let's agree that Maine won't catch UNH or BU, each of which now have 27 points (Maine would have to win out and UNH and BU would have to lose something like 5 of 6). We lose the tie-breaker to both UNH and BU. Now let's look at 3rd place. BC has played one more game than us and has 21 points. BC has a home&home w/UNH and 1 game with BU (the Beanpot final has no effect on HEA standings). Let's say they lose all 3 (they won't). If Maine wins out (they won't), and BC wins, as expected, over NU (demolished 6-0 last night), PC (demolished 6-0 two weeks ago) and UMA home&home, we will have identical records. BC wins the tie-breaker. Yes, 3rd place in HEA is mathematically possible for Maine, but very unlikely. So then the question becomes "Can Maine overtake NU for 4th place in HEA"? NU has played one more game than us and has 4 more points. If we assume an immediate win for us in the next game, we'd be 2 points down with 7 games to play. NU's games include UNH, BC and BU(2). Advantage to us, but the puck's on their stick to win or lose 4th place. Maine loses the tie-breaker with NU, so we need to beat NUs record by 3 points in the remaining games (5 points if we count the game in hand). My guess is that 4th place is achievable, but will require more than 12 of the possible 16 points. NU might falter badly against the top teams, but I'd be surprised if less than 12 points by us will get us to 4th place. Can we fall below 5th place? Mathematically, yes. But unlikely. PC is only 3 points back of us but has a grueling schedule with BC, UNH, BU(2) and Maine(2). MC is also 3 points behind us, but has 2 fewer games remaining. An MC/Maine split and MC loss to BU will kill MC chances for 5th. UMA is 4 points behind us but will play 2 fewer games and their opponents are Maine(2), BC(2) and UNH(2) ... ouch! So, my guess is 4th or 5th place in HEA. We'll see home ice in the HEA playoffs only if our boys have a remarkable turnaround and quickly gain enough confidence to play like they can. It won't be easy. >in the HE tournament. If they can do this they'll finish in the top 5 >nationally, and they are currently 5th in the PairWise, so there is >really no concern in my mind of them making the NCAA tournament. One might be concerned. Maine's ranking is good now, but our next games are against #20, #28, #29 and #36 place teams. The expected quarter-finals with NU will be against (now) #16. Should we lose two games in the HEA quarter-finals, I'd be surprised to see Maine in the PWR top-ten. Although 12 teams are chosen for the NCAAs, typically the auto-bids mean the 12th and 11th place (by PWR) won't get selected. Some years, the 10th place doesn't go! On a lark, I recently calculated RPI for the case of Maine splitting their remaining games and then losing to NU in 3 games. (The calculation did not count other remaining college hockey games). Maine would end in 13th place. No NCAAs. Too pessimistic, you say? I extended the lark and assumed Maine will win out, but lose to NU in a 3-game quarter-final. Maine would be ranked (approximately) in 10th place in RPI (RPI is a factor in PWR and tracks with PWR well; the NCAA selection committee uses a selection method that PWR tracks exactly in the past few years). The last 8 Maine games is just a tune-up for the HEA playoffs. Maine must do well and make the HEA semi-finals or tank the rest of the regular season and play in the HEA finals in order to get an NCAA bid, IMHO. cheers, wayne Wayne T. Smith [log in to unmask] Old Town Landing Co-owner of the College Hockey lists - Hockey-L and Hockey3