During the brouhaha over the ECAC's decision about how to handle its
standings, a couple of people mentioned tat whatever they did would still be
better than the WCHA's unbalanced league schedule.  Well, I took a look at
the WCHA, and they were right.
 
(Disclaimer: The following data allows me to complain loudly that my
favorite team is getting screwed.  Whether this influenced the analysis, or
even my decision to do it at all, I will leave to your imaginations.)
 
The only place the imbalance makes a difference is in the logjam from 3rd to
6th places.  As far as I can tell, with a balanced schedule, Wisconsin and
UND would still be where they are, Anchorage would be even more firmly stuck
in 7th, and Tech would be a long ways from anyone.  I suppose that it might
affect Duluth and Denver in the battle for 8th, but I didn't care enough to
check that out.
 
Currently, the standings from 3rd to 6th are as follows:
 
3. Colorado College - 26 pts.
3. St. Cloud State - 26 pts.
5. MSU-Mankato - 25 pts.
6. Minnesota - 24 pts.
 
The way that the WCHA schedule works, for the uninitiated, is that each team
plays four games against five conference opponents, and two games against
the other four.  A breakdown of which teams each of these plays the full
four times, with the league rank of the opponents, is:
 
Colorado College: Wisconsin - 1
                                    MSU - 5
                                    Minnesota - 6
                                    Duluth - 8
                                    Denver - 9
        Average Rank: 5.8 (5.2)
 
St. Cloud: Wisconsin - 1
                    North Dakota - 2
                    Minnesota - 6
                    Duluth - 8
                    Denver - 9
        Average Rank: 5.2 (4.6)
 
MSU-Mankato: North Dakota - 2
                            Colorado College - 3.5
                            Anchorage - 7
                            Denver - 9
                            Michigan Tech - 10
        Average Rank: 6.3 (5.7)
 
Minnesota: Wisconsin - 1
                    North Dakota - 2
                    Colorado College - 3.5
                    St. Cloud - 3.5
                    Duluth - 8
        Average Rank: 3.6 (3.4)
 
Note: The average figure in parens is an adjustment based on taking a the
team out of the standings for computing the rank of its own opponents.  This
is done to correct for the fact that Minnesota, ranked 6th, would have a
higher rated schedule if they were completely balanced.  My intuition says
that this is not a complete correction and that the true figure would lie in
between, but I haven't tried to wrap my brain around the math involved.
 
Thus, the variation in the strength of the schedule played by each of these
four teams is significant.  Just based on this, I would have said that
Minnesota is at least better than MSU, and probably even with CC.  This is
important, since each step up the standings here is important.  Getting to
5th gives a team home ice in the first round of the playoffs.  4th means
being able to avoid all of these teams in the first round and drawing
Anchorage, a team that I think is a step down in quality.  3rd means getting
an even weaker team in the first round, and being sure of avoiding the 4-5
game if you make it to the Final Five.
 
A bit more analysis lent some strength to my initial guess.  I went through
the records, and treated all games against the opponents that a team plays
only twice as being four-point games, ala the CHA.  Each of these four teams
still has one series remaining against one such opponent.
 
St Cloud as yet to lose a game to a single series opponent, sweeping MSU,
Anchorage and Tech, so they get an additional 12 points, solidifying them in
third place by a goodly margin.  Their remaining single-series opponent is
Colorado College.
 
Colorado College swept Tech, picked up three points against Anchorage and
got one against North Dakota, so they get an additional 8 points.  They
still have St. Cloud.
 
MSU-Mankato split with Wisconsin and Minnesota and was swept by St. Cloud.
They pick up 4 more points, and have Duluth left.
 
Minnesota swept Denver and split with Anchorage and MSU.  They get 8 more
points and have Tech left.
 
Adjusted standings would be as follows:
 
3. St. Cloud - 38 pts.
4. Colorado College - 34 points
5. Minnesota - 32 points
6. MSU-Mankato - 29 points
 
The closest gap here is between CC and MN.  Since CC has a somewhat harder
remaining schedule (both play SCSU and Wisc, but CC has MSU and MN plays
Tech) and that their remaining four point games are against SCSU instead of
Tech, in this analysis I feel fairly confident in saying that the two teams
are effectively tied.
 
In all, this unbalanced schedule is nonsense, and it's completely screwing
up the middle of the WCHA standings.  Given the travel distances in the
league, there may not be an easy solution to this problem, but someone had
better come up with something.
 
J. Michael Neal
 
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