Apologies to Bill and everyone else for not having the Playoff
Possibilities scripts up this year. I just never found the time to
update them for the wacky new point system. :-(
John T. Whelan
Cornell '91
On Mon, 21 Feb 2022, Bill Fenwick wrote:
> Back after a one-year hiatus (like pretty much everything else in the
> world), it’s the ECAC Playoff Permutations! As I've repeatedly shown, I'm a
> complete nut-ball about figuring stuff like this out, and the adoption of
> the three-point system with its regulation vs. overtime values, along with
> the ever-popular shoot-out, has made this whole process even more enjoyable
> than before. (Take notes, class – that is what is known as "sarcasm".) And
> then throw some teams into the mix that had to reschedule games and are
> playing three times this week instead of the usual two – well, interesting
> times indeed.
>
> At the moment, the ECAC has more-or-less organized itself into three tiers.
> The top three have broken away from the pack, and the next three are likely
> to finish 4-6 in some order, leaving a whole mess of teams that could finish
> anywhere from sixth to twelfth.
>
> Going into the final week of league play, here's a breakdown of where each
> team in the ECAC could finish. For each ECAC team, I've listed the
> following:
>
> THIS WEEK: The team's games this week, its last two (or three) of the
> season.
> ON THEIR OWN: The highest the team could finish with no help from the
> competition. Generally, this involves a sweep in regulation.
> BEST CASE: The highest the team could finish if everything goes right.
> WORST CASE: The lowest the team could finish if everything goes wrong.
> This generally involves getting swept while teams nearby in the
> standings win.
> TIEBREAKERS: How the team would fare if they finished the season tied with
> some other team which is currently close (i.e. within 6 or 9 points)
> in the standings. Note that there may be cases in which Team A "could
> win or lose" the tiebreaker against Team B, depending on whether there
> are more than just those two teams tied. For instance, Union wins the
> head-to-head points tiebreaker against Princeton 5-1 (with a win in
> regulation and one in overtime); however, in a three-way tie involving
> these two and Yale, Union would actually be seeded lower than
> Princeton. If a listed tiebreaker result depends on more than just
> those two teams being tied, it is marked with an asterisk:
>
> Union could win or lose* against Princeton
>
> For two or more teams tied in the standings, the ECAC tiebreakers are:
>
> 1. Comparison of points in head-to-head games (non-conference meetings,
> such as in tournaments, do not count).
> 2. League wins in regulation and overtime (shootout results do not apply).
> 3. Comparison of points against top four teams.
> 4. Comparison of points against top eight teams.
> 5. Goal differential head-to-head.
> 6. Goal differential against top four teams.
> 7. Goal differential against top eight teams.
>
> Note that if the tie is among three or more teams, the tiebreaking steps are
> used in order until a team, or multiple teams, is/are separated from the
> "pack". Once that happens, the process starts all over to break the
> Remaining ties. For example, when the above steps are applied to a four-way
> tie, once one team is separated out leaving a three-way tie, the procedure
> goes back to the first step with the three remaining tied teams.
>
>
> Without further ado, here's how the final week looks:
>
> Quinnipiac:
> THIS WEEK: Yale, Cornell, Colgate.
> ON THEIR OWN: Six points will clinch the top spot.
> BEST CASE: First.
> WORST CASE: Will finish third if they lose all three games in
> regulation (what a pain in the ass it is to have to specify that),
> Clarkson gets at least one point, and Harvard gets at least eight.
> TIEBREAKERS: Loses to Clarkson and Harvard.
>
> Clarkson:
> THIS WEEK: Yale, Brown.
> ON THEIR OWN: Wraps up second with two points.
> BEST CASE: Would take first with two regulation wins if Quinnipiac
> gets no more than five points.
> WORST CASE: Falls to third if they get swept in regulation and Harvard
> gets at least eight points.
> TIEBREAKERS: Beats Quinnipiac and Harvard.
>
> Harvard:
> THIS WEEK: At Union, at Rensselaer, at Princeton.
> ON THEIR OWN: Has already clinched third and can do no better than
> that without help.
> BEST CASE: Climbs to first with three wins in regulation if Quinnipiac
> and Clarkson each get no more than one point.
> WORST CASE: Third.
> TIEBREAKERS: Beats Quinnipiac; loses to Clarkson.
>
> Cornell:
> THIS WEEK: At Quinnipiac, at Princeton.
> ON THEIR OWN: Four points will give the Big Red fourth place.
> BEST CASE: Fourth.
> WORST CASE: Finishes sixth with a pair of regulation losses if Colgate
> gets at least three points and Rensselaer sweeps in regulation.
> TIEBREAKERS: Loses to Colgate and Rensselaer.
>
> Colgate:
> THIS WEEK: At Princeton, at Quinnipiac.
> ON THEIR OWN: Clinches fifth with three points.
> BEST CASE: Would rise to fourth with two regulation wins if Cornell
> gets no more than three points.
> WORST CASE: Drops to seventh if they lose twice in regulation (are you
> sick of that word yet?), Rensselaer gets at least four points, and
> Princeton gets at least eight.
> TIEBREAKERS: Beats Cornell and Rensselaer; could win* or lose against
> Princeton.
>
> Rensselaer:
> THIS WEEK: Dartmouth, Harvard.
> ON THEIR OWN: Takes sixth place with five points.
> BEST CASE: Finishes fourth with two wins in regulation if Cornell has
> two regulation losses and Colgate gets no more than two points.
> WORST CASE: Slides down to tenth if they get swept in regulation,
> Union gets two regulation wins, Princeton and Brown get at least five
> points each, and Yale gets at least eight.
> TIEBREAKERS: Beats Cornell, Brown, and Union; loses to Colgate and
> Yale; could win or lose against Princeton; could win or lose* against
> St. Lawrence
>
> Princeton:
> THIS WEEK: Colgate, Cornell, Harvard.
> ON THEIR OWN: Would wrap up seventh place with six points.
> BEST CASE: Clinches fifth with three regulation wins if Colgate does
> not beat Quinnipiac in regulation and Rensselaer gets no more than four
> points.
> WORST CASE: Winds up twelfth if they get swept in regulation, Brown
> does not lose twice in regulation, Union beats Harvard, St. Lawrence
> gets at least two points, Dartmouth gets at least five, and Yale gets
> at least five against Clarkson and Quinnipiac.
> TIEBREAKERS: Could win or lose against Rensselaer and St. Lawrence;
> could win or lose* against Colgate, Brown, and Yale; could win* or lose
> against Union and Dartmouth.
>
> Brown:
> THIS WEEK: At St. Lawrence, at Clarkson.
> ON THEIR OWN: The Bears clinch eighth with a regulation sweep.
> BEST CASE: Climbs to sixth with two regulation wins if Rensselaer gets
> no more than two points and Princeton gets no more than five.
> WORST CASE: Would drop to twelfth if they lose twice in regulation,
> Union gets at least one point, Dartmouth gets at least four points, and
> Yale gets at least five.
> TIEBREAKERS: Loses to Rensselaer; could win or lose against St.
> Lawrence; could win or lose* against Dartmouth; could win* or lose
> against Princeton, Union, and Yale.
>
> Union:
> THIS WEEK: Harvard, Dartmouth.
> ON THEIR OWN: Two regulation wins will wrap up tenth place.
> BEST CASE: Takes sixth with a sweep in regulation if RPI has two
> regulation losses, Princeton gets no more than five points, and St.
> Lawrence gets a win of some kind against Brown.
> WORST CASE: Ends up in twelfth place if they get swept in regulation,
> St. Lawrence does not have two regulation losses, and Yale gets at
> least three points.
> TIEBREAKERS: Loses to Rensselaer; could win or lose* against
> Princeton, Brown, St. Lawrence, and Dartmouth; could win* or lose
> against Yale.
>
> St. Lawrence:
> THIS WEEK: Brown, Yale.
> ON THEIR OWN: Takes ninth with a regulation sweep.
> BEST CASE: Gets sixth with two wins in regulation if Rensselaer is
> swept in regulation, Princeton gets no more than four points, and Union
> does not win twice in regulation.
> WORST CASE: Falls to twelfth with a pair of regulation losses if Union
> gets at least one point and Dartmouth gets at least three.
> TIEBREAKERS: Could win or lose against Princeton, Brown, Dartmouth,
> and Yale; could win* or lose against Rensselaer and Union.
>
> Dartmouth:
> THIS WEEK: At Rensselaer, at Union.
> ON THEIR OWN: With a pair of wins in regulation, Dartmouth wraps up
> tenth.
> BEST CASE: Would rise to seventh with a regulation sweep if Princeton
> gets no more than two points, Brown gets no more than two points
> against St. Lawrence and loses to Clarkson in regulation, St. Lawrence
> gets no more than three points, and Yale gets no more than six.
> WORST CASE: Slides to twelfth if they lose twice in regulation and
> Yale gets at least three points.
> TIEBREAKERS: Could win or lose against St. Lawrence; could win or
> lose* against Princeton and Yale; could win* or lose against Brown and
> Union.
>
> Yale:
> THIS WEEK: At Quinnipiac, at Clarkson, at St. Lawrence.
> ON THEIR OWN: Takes ninth if they win three times in regulation.
> BEST CASE: Clinches sixth with three regulation wins if Rensselaer
> loses twice in regulation, Princeton gets no more than four points,
> Brown loses to St. Lawrence in regulation, and Dartmouth also beats
> Union in regulation (and that's the last time I'm going to use that
> word).
> WORST CASE: Finishes twelfth if they get no more than one point.
> TIEBREAKERS: Beats Rensselaer; could win or lose against St. Lawrence;
> could win or lose* against Brown and Union; could win* or lose against
> Princeton and Dartmouth.
>
> --
> Bill Fenwick DJF 5/27/94
> Cornell '86 and '95 JCF 12/2/97
> LET'S GO RED!!
>
>
>
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