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Subject:
From:
Tora Johnson <[log in to unmask]>
Reply To:
Tora Johnson <[log in to unmask]>
Date:
Thu, 2 Apr 2020 09:04:26 -0400
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One more relevant item in today's New York Times: "For every known case of
coronavirus, another five to 10 cases are out there undetected, a new study
suggests." https://nyti.ms/2wNeNZz

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Tora Johnson, PhD (she/ her)
Chair, Division of Environmental & Biological Sciences, Science Hall 107a
Director of GIS/ Associate Professor, GIS Lab & Service Center, Torrey Hall
223
University of Maine at Machias
[log in to unmask] ~ (207) 255-1214 ~ Twitter: @toradignity

Need to make an appointment with Tora during office hours? Go to
http://bit.ly/toraofficehours

Like the UMM GIS Program on Facebook! https://www.facebook.com/ummgis
Like the UMM Science Division on Facebook!
https://www.facebook.com/ummscience/
Looking for internships, jobs or grad school opportunities?
https://sites.google.com/a/maine.edu/careers-umm-science/


On Wed, Apr 1, 2020 at 7:57 PM Tora Johnson <[log in to unmask]> wrote:

> Dear Colleagues,
>
> I hope you are all safe and well. I have been discussing covid-19 maps
> with fellow geographers around the state, and we believe we've identified
> an important problem. Nearly all of the maps we have seen show only the
> number of confirmed covid-19 cases. In spite of the fact that public health
> officials consistently say that these numbers represent only some of the
> cases and that the virus has likely already made its way into every county
> in Maine, we have heard many people, one-on-one and on social media, say
> that the virus is "not in my county" as an excuse for not practicing social
> distancing. Maps showing confirmed cases are probably part of the problem.
>
> The folly of the "not-in-my-county" excuse was driven home for me over the
> last couple of weeks when my own 23 year old kid and their roommate came
> down with apparent cases of covid-19 in Portland. They were diagnosed by
> their doctors via telemedicine and never tested because they lacked other
> risk factors. Since this is currently the practice, clearly the number of
> actual cases is much, much larger than the number of confirmed cases, and
> the potential for spread across the state is much greater than confirmed
> case numbers would indicate. Both are recovering and are in quarantine at
> home, thank goodness.
>
> From past studies on how people use and derive meaning from maps, we know
> that people often skip written information and derive a simplified message
> from a map or other such easily digested visualization. The maps of
> confirmed cases that are so common in the press and social media are likely
> no exception, so we believe many people are glancing at these maps and
> drawing erroneous conclusions. *The geographers I have spoken with have
> agreed to begin including high-profile disclaimers in their maps to
> indicate that the number of actual cases is likely much larger and the
> virus is likely much more widespread than the number of confirmed cases
> would indicate. I'm writing to urge anyone creating such maps to do the
> same.*
>
> Currently, the state's official case count page
> <https://www.maine.gov/DHHS/mecdc/infectious-disease/epi/airborne/coronavirus.shtml>
> includes the following disclaimer, however, it is in plain text and
> separate from the map: "This is likely an underrepresentation of the true
> number of cases in Maine since not all individuals are being tested. For
> individuals not considered to be at high risk, medical providers are
> currently advised to diagnose COVID-19 based on symptoms." So, it is likely
> that many people go to that page and glance at the map without reading the
> disclaimer. I have written to the CDC to recommend that they raise the
> profile of the disclaimer and place it on the map itself.
>
> I gather from what I have read that there is no way without more
> widespread and targeted testing to estimate the actual number of cases
> around the state (or anywhere else in the country). So, I understand that
> the number of confirmed cases is the only quantitative information
> available to report. Perhaps we can all work on improving the way this
> information is transmitted to the public with more careful map design.
>
> I hope you find this information helpful.
>
> Be well!
> Tora
> ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
> Tora Johnson, PhD (she/ her)
> Chair, Division of Environmental & Biological Sciences, Science Hall 107a
> Director of GIS/ Associate Professor, GIS Lab & Service Center, Torrey
> Hall 223
> University of Maine at Machias
> [log in to unmask] ~ (207) 255-1214 ~ Twitter: @toradignity
>
> Need to make an appointment with Tora during office hours? Go to
> http://bit.ly/toraofficehours
>
> Like the UMM GIS Program on Facebook! https://www.facebook.com/ummgis
> Like the UMM Science Division on Facebook!
> https://www.facebook.com/ummscience/
> Looking for internships, jobs or grad school opportunities?
> https://sites.google.com/a/maine.edu/careers-umm-science/
>

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