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Sender:
Maine GeoNews <[log in to unmask]>
Date:
Thu, 2 Apr 2020 14:19:00 -0400
Reply-To:
Joseph Young <[log in to unmask]>
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From:
Joseph Young <[log in to unmask]>
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To: Chris Paulu <[log in to unmask]>
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This appears to be a great article
<https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/coronavirus-cases-have-dropped-sharply-south-korea-whats-secret-its-success>
explaining some of the reasons why South Korea has been successful in
containing the corona virus and the US has been doing so poorly.

When the hysteria and hype gets sorted out after we return to normal it
will be interesting to see if our political and bureaucratic leaders learn
enough to make changes to how we respond to new viruses.


Joe Young
Public Member
Maine Library of Geographic Information
207-931-7626
[log in to unmask]


On Thu, Apr 2, 2020 at 11:31 AM Chris Paulu <[log in to unmask]>
wrote:

> Thanks, Tora – for the link, and for the earnest plea for better
> contextualizing/communication.
>
>
>
> The article you linked is from 3/16, and is relevant. But perhaps you
> intended to share this one posted yesterday?
>
>
>
> [image: cid:image001.png@01D608D0.DF9BFC90]
>
>
>
>
> https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/01/us/coronavirus-covid-19-symptoms-data.html
>
>
>
> --
>
>
>
> cheers,
>
> Chris
>
>
>
>
>
>
> *--------------------------------------------------------------------------------*
>
> *|   Chris Paulu, Sc.D.*
>
> *|   Epidemiologist, Assistant Research Professor*
>
> *|   Muskie School of Public Service*
>
> *|   University of Southern Maine*
>
> *|                          and*
>
> *|   Environmental & Occupational Health Programs *
>
> *|   Maine Center for Disease Control & Prevention*
>
>
> *--------------------------------------------------------------------------------*
>
>
>
>
>
> *From: *Maine GeoNews <[log in to unmask]> on behalf of Tora
> Johnson <[log in to unmask]>
> *Reply-To: *Tora Johnson <[log in to unmask]>
> *Date: *Thursday, April 2, 2020 at 9:10 AM
> *To: *"[log in to unmask]" <[log in to unmask]>
> *Subject: *Re: Need for Disclaimers on Covid-19 Maps
>
>
>
> *EXTERNAL: This email originated from outside of the State of Maine Mail
> System. Do not click links or open attachments unless you recognize the
> sender and know the content is safe.*
>
> One more relevant item in today's New York Times: "For every known case of
> coronavirus, another five to 10 cases are out there undetected, a new study
> suggests." *MailScanner has detected a possible fraud attempt from
> "nam03.safelinks.protection.outlook.com" claiming to be*
> https://nyti.ms/2wNeNZz
> <https://nam03.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fnyti.ms%2F2wNeNZz&data=02%7C01%7Cchris.paulu%40MAINE.GOV%7C46be0fcbc52a42e59f4408d7d706c171%7C413fa8ab207d4b629bcdea1a8f2f864e%7C0%7C0%7C637214298183437154&sdata=oboL1y2vtlMIaL6i7sPx4SqbyD2QNyOSfxgLzn2SiqE%3D&reserved=0>
>
>
> ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
>
> Tora Johnson, PhD (she/ her)
>
> Chair, Division of Environmental & Biological Sciences, Science Hall 107a
> Director of GIS/ Associate Professor, GIS Lab & Service Center, Torrey
> Hall 223
>
> University of Maine at Machias
> [log in to unmask] ~ (207) 255-1214 ~ Twitter: @toradignity
>
>
> Need to make an appointment with Tora during office hours? Go to *MailScanner
> has detected a possible fraud attempt from
> "nam03.safelinks.protection.outlook.com" claiming to be*
> http://bit.ly/toraofficehours
> <https://nam03.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fbit.ly%2Ftoraofficehours&data=02%7C01%7Cchris.paulu%40MAINE.GOV%7C46be0fcbc52a42e59f4408d7d706c171%7C413fa8ab207d4b629bcdea1a8f2f864e%7C0%7C0%7C637214298183447144&sdata=S7IETMDOQdnCWa0rSH88kwchj%2FQhkFoQWyqhOLVgHZY%3D&reserved=0>
>
>
>
> Like the UMM GIS Program on Facebook! *MailScanner has detected a
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>
>
>
>
>
> On Wed, Apr 1, 2020 at 7:57 PM Tora Johnson <[log in to unmask]> wrote:
>
> Dear Colleagues,
>
>
>
> I hope you are all safe and well. I have been discussing covid-19 maps
> with fellow geographers around the state, and we believe we've identified
> an important problem. Nearly all of the maps we have seen show only the
> number of confirmed covid-19 cases. In spite of the fact that public health
> officials consistently say that these numbers represent only some of the
> cases and that the virus has likely already made its way into every county
> in Maine, we have heard many people, one-on-one and on social media, say
> that the virus is "not in my county" as an excuse for not practicing social
> distancing. Maps showing confirmed cases are probably part of the problem.
>
>
>
> The folly of the "not-in-my-county" excuse was driven home for me over the
> last couple of weeks when my own 23 year old kid and their roommate came
> down with apparent cases of covid-19 in Portland. They were diagnosed by
> their doctors via telemedicine and never tested because they lacked other
> risk factors. Since this is currently the practice, clearly the number of
> actual cases is much, much larger than the number of confirmed cases, and
> the potential for spread across the state is much greater than confirmed
> case numbers would indicate. Both are recovering and are in quarantine at
> home, thank goodness.
>
>
>
> From past studies on how people use and derive meaning from maps, we know
> that people often skip written information and derive a simplified message
> from a map or other such easily digested visualization. The maps of
> confirmed cases that are so common in the press and social media are likely
> no exception, so we believe many people are glancing at these maps and
> drawing erroneous conclusions. *The geographers I have spoken with have
> agreed to begin including high-profile disclaimers in their maps to
> indicate that the number of actual cases is likely much larger and the
> virus is likely much more widespread than the number of confirmed cases
> would indicate. I'm writing to urge anyone creating such maps to do the
> same.*
>
>
>
> Currently, the state's official case count page
> <https://nam03.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.maine.gov%2FDHHS%2Fmecdc%2Finfectious-disease%2Fepi%2Fairborne%2Fcoronavirus.shtml&data=02%7C01%7Cchris.paulu%40MAINE.GOV%7C46be0fcbc52a42e59f4408d7d706c171%7C413fa8ab207d4b629bcdea1a8f2f864e%7C0%7C0%7C637214298183477126&sdata=IBzSB%2BsUjlmtl45ctBaElYbCNjY6kkQIBSvhy2QlTVw%3D&reserved=0>
> includes the following disclaimer, however, it is in plain text and
> separate from the map: "This is likely an underrepresentation of the true
> number of cases in Maine since not all individuals are being tested. For
> individuals not considered to be at high risk, medical providers are
> currently advised to diagnose COVID-19 based on symptoms." So, it is likely
> that many people go to that page and glance at the map without reading the
> disclaimer. I have written to the CDC to recommend that they raise the
> profile of the disclaimer and place it on the map itself.
>
>
>
> I gather from what I have read that there is no way without more
> widespread and targeted testing to estimate the actual number of cases
> around the state (or anywhere else in the country). So, I understand that
> the number of confirmed cases is the only quantitative information
> available to report. Perhaps we can all work on improving the way this
> information is transmitted to the public with more careful map design.
>
>
>
> I hope you find this information helpful.
>
>
>
> Be well!
>
> Tora
>
> ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
>
> Tora Johnson, PhD (she/ her)
>
> Chair, Division of Environmental & Biological Sciences, Science Hall 107a
> Director of GIS/ Associate Professor, GIS Lab & Service Center, Torrey
> Hall 223
>
> University of Maine at Machias
> [log in to unmask] ~ (207) 255-1214 ~ Twitter: @toradignity
>
>
> Need to make an appointment with Tora during office hours? Go to *MailScanner
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>
>
>
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