With one week to go in the regular season, all ten ECAC playoff teams are
known, but there is still plenty of jockeying for better spots left to do.
Here's a breakdown of where each team could finish in the ECAC's final
standings, along with what has to happen for them to move up to better
playoff spots.  For each team, I've come up with the following categories:
 
THIS WEEKEND:  The team's weekend games, its last two of the season.
ON THEIR OWN:  The highest the team could finish with no help from the
     competition.  Generally, this involves a weekend sweep.
BEST CASE:  The highest the team could finish if everything goes right.
WORST CASE:  The lowest the team could finish if everything goes wrong.
     This generally involves getting swept while teams nearby in the
     standings win.
TIEBREAKERS:  How the team would fare if they finished the season tied with
     some other team which is currently close (within 4 points) in the
     standings.
 
For two or more teams tied in the standings, the ECAC tiebreakers are:
 
1.   Head-to-head record in ECAC games (non-conference meetings, such as in
     tournaments, do not count).
2.   Record against the top four teams in the conference.
3.   Record against the top eight teams in the conference.
4.   Goal differential (net goals) head-to-head.
5.   Goal differential against the top four teams in the conference.
6.   Goal differential against the top eight teams in the conference.
 
I don't recall any cases where teams have ever had to go beyond the third
tiebreaker.
 
Here are the playoff "permutations" for each team, in order of their current
position in the standings:
 
Harvard:
     THIS WEEK:  At Clarkson, at St. Lawrence.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Clinches first with a win over St. Lawrence or at least
     a tie against Clarkson.
     BEST CASE:  First.
     WORST CASE:  Finishes second if they do not beat St. Lawrence and
     Clarkson sweeps.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Loses to Clarkson.
 
Clarkson:
     THIS WEEK:  Harvard, Brown.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Clinches second by getting 3 points.
     BEST CASE:  Finishes first with a sweep if St. Lawrence does not lose
     to Harvard.
     WORST CASE:  Finishes fourth if they lose both games, Yale sweeps, and
     St. Lawrence gets 2 points.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Harvard and Yale, loses to St. Lawrence.
 
St. Lawrence:
     THIS WEEK:  Brown, Harvard.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Clinches third with two wins.
     BEST CASE:  Finishes second with a sweep if Clarkson gets no more than
     2 points.
     WORST CASE:  Finishes fifth if they lose twice, Cornell sweeps, and
     Yale gets exactly 1 point.  This would set up a three-way tie between
     St. Lawrence, Cornell, and Yale, and the tiebreakers would put St.
     Lawrence fifth.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Clarkson, could win or lose against Cornell and
     Yale.
 
Yale:
     THIS WEEK:  At RPI, at Union.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Clinches fourth with 1 point this weekend.
     BEST CASE:  Finishes second with a sweep if Clarkson loses both games
     and St. Lawrence gets 3 points or less.
     WORST CASE:  Finishes fifth if they lose both games and Cornell sweeps.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Cornell and Brown, loses to Clarkson, could win or
     lose against St. Lawrence.
 
Cornell:
     THIS WEEK:  At Dartmouth, at Vermont.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Clinches fifth by getting 3 points.
     BEST CASE:  Finishes fourth with a sweep if Yale loses twice.  If Yale,
     St. Lawrence, and Cornell end up in a three-way tie, Cornell would also
     finish fourth.
     WORST CASE:  Finishes seventh if they lose twice, Brown gets at least 2
     points, and the Colgate-Vermont winner wins their other game.  If
     Colgate and Vermont tie, Colgate would have to beat Dartmouth and set
     up a three-way tie, which would put Cornell seventh.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Brown and Vermont, loses to Yale, could win or lose
     against St. Lawrence and Colgate.
 
Brown:
     THIS WEEK:  At St. Lawrence, at Clarkson.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Clinches sixth with 3 points this weekend.
     BEST CASE:  Finishes fifth by getting at least 3 points and at least 2
     more than Cornell.
     WORST CASE:  Finishes eighth if they get swept, Vermont gets at least 3
     points, and Colgate beats Dartmouth.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Vermont; loses to Yale, Cornell, and Colgate.
 
Colgate:
     THIS WEEK:  At Vermont, at Dartmouth.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Clinches seventh place by beating Vermont, or by tying
     Vermont and beating Dartmouth.
     BEST CASE:  Finishes fifth with a sweep if Cornell loses twice and
     Brown gets no more than two points.  Colgate would also finish fifth in
     a three-way tie with Cornell and Brown, or in a four-way tie with
     Cornell, Brown, and Vermont (possible only if Colgate and Vermont tie).
     WORST CASE:  Finishes eighth if they lose twice.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Brown, could win or lose against Cornell and
     Vermont.
 
Vermont:
     THIS WEEK:  Colgate, Cornell.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Clinches seventh by beating Colgate and at least tying
     Cornell.
     BEST CASE:  Finishes fifth with a sweep if Cornell loses twice and
     Brown gets no more than 1 point.
     WORST CASE:  Finishes eighth if they lose to Colgate.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Loses to Cornell and Brown, could win or lose against
     Colgate.
 
Princeton:
     THIS WEEK:  At Union, at RPI.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Clinches ninth place by beating RPI, or by tying RPI and
     beating Union.
     BEST CASE:  Ninth.
     WORST CASE:  Finishes tenth if they lose twice, or if they lose to RPI
     and Cornell is not among the top four.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Could win or lose against RPI.
 
RPI:
     THIS WEEK:  Yale, Princeton.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Clinches ninth place by beating Princeton and getting at
     least 1 point against Yale.
     BEST CASE:  Ninth.
     WORST CASE:  Finishes tenth if they lose to Princeton.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Could win or lose against Princeton.
 
Dartmouth:
     THIS WEEK:  Cornell, Colgate.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Clinches eleventh with a sweep.
     BEST CASE:  Eleventh.
     WORST CASE:  Finishes twelfth if Union gets at least 1 more point than
     they do this weekend.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Loses to Union.
 
Union:
     THIS WEEK:  Princeton, Yale.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Cannot finish higher than twelfth without help.
     BEST CASE:  Clinches eleventh if they get at least 1 more point than
     Dartmouth.
     WORST CASE:  Twelfth.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Dartmouth.
 
Outlook for the weekend:
 
It sounds simple for Harvard -- tie Clarkson or beat St. Lawrence, and the
title belongs to the Crimson.  But Harvard ends the season with a trip to
the North Country for a meeting of the irresistible force and the immovable
object.  Harvard is undefeated on the road against ECAC competition (6-0-3
for a 0.833 winning percentage), but St. Lawrence (8-0-1, 0.944) and
Clarkson (8-1, 0.899) are the league's top teams at home.  The Crimson will
find points difficult to come by this weekend.
 
In their rush to beat up on Harvard and maybe move up in the standings, the
Golden Knights and the Saints had better not take Brown lightly.  Clarkson
did just that in January and the Bears took the victory.  Between that game
and last weekend, the Knights went a ho-hum 4-3-1 and dropped to third in
the ECAC, but two big wins over Yale and Princeton may indicate that Clark-
son has returned to the form that made them the choice for the title in the
ECAC coaches' preseason poll.  St. Lawrence, on the other hand, is suddenly
in a little trouble.  It looked like Saturday night's game against Harvard
would be for the regular-season title, but those hopes were squashed when
the Saints came up short last weekend.  The Saints have done extremely well
at Appleton this year, and they will have to continue to do so if they want
to hold off Yale.
 
Speaking of the Elis, they hold the key to Cornell's dim hopes for home ice
for the quarterfinals.  Yale's got a tough one at RPI Friday night -- the
Engineers have been strong at home recently, losing only once in six games
at Houston Field House since the new year began.  It is highly unlikely that
Yale would look past Saturday night's opponent, though, even if Union had
not beaten Cornell.  The Elis were already well aware that Union was capable
of beating a good opponent -- back in January's game between these two, the
Elis blew a 2-0 lead and had to come from behind a couple times to get a 5-5
tie with the Dutchmen.  Union won't catch Yale napping again.
 
Which brings us to the Big Red.  Supposedly, the loss to Union will serve as
some sort of wake-up call.  Well, Cornell has already had a few of those
this season (Brown, Colgate, Princeton), and if they don't want to slide
further down in the standings, they had better answer this one.  Dartmouth
already threw a scare into the Big Red earlier this season, playing Cornell
tough for most of two periods before falling, and the game at Vermont (which
will likely determine whether or not Cornell stays in fifth place) will be a
difficult one.  Vermont currently has a strange streak over Cornell.  The
two teams have met in the final weekend of the regular season every year
since 1985, and Cornell hasn't won one of those games since 1987.
 
Brown is once again pressing Cornell for fifth place, after gaining some
ground last weekend.  A tough North Country road trip looms, but again, the
Bears might be able to steal a couple points if Clarkson and St. Lawrence
are preoccupied with Harvard.  Brown played both those teams tough in
January -- a victory over Clarkson and a one-goal loss to the Saints.  A
good weekend would enable the Bears to avoid the ECAC's preliminary round
for the first time since it was created two years ago.  The Bears may have
to worry about their occasionally woeful goaltending, though.
 
Colgate has had a difficult season off the ice, including last summer's
surprise announcement by forward Jamie Cooke that he was turning pro and the
death of head coach Terry Slater in December.  Personally, I think "interim"
head coach Brian Durocher has done an admirable job in rallying this team to
a 0.500 record, and he ought to get the permanent head coaching job if he
hasn't already.  Like Cornell, the Red Raiders face a tough trip up to
Burlington to play Vermont, but they have a good chance to slip past Brown
for sixth place.
 
It is only fitting that Vermont is sitting at 0.500 in the ECAC, because
this is truly a tale of two teams.  On the road, the Catamounts are awful
(2-8-1, third-worst in the league), but at home, it's a different story.
Only Harvard has been able to come away from Gutterson Field House with a
victory, as the Cats have posted a 7-1-1 record at home against ECAC com-
petition (11-1-1 overall).  Vermont will give Colgate and Cornell all they
can handle this weekend.
 
Princeton and RPI will both have the dubious honor of opening the ECAC
playoffs on the road for the preliminary round, having both suffered dis-
appointing seasons.  The Tigers will be participating in the preliminary
round for the third straight year, and although they have showed some
flashes of brilliance during the year (a tie against Harvard, wins over St.
Lawrence and Cornell), they never really put it all together under first-
year head coach Don Cahoon.  But that could have been suspected, since
Cahoon didn't get the job until late July of last year.  As for RPI, they
were hit hard on offense by graduation, and the Engineers will wind up with
their worst season in ten years.
 
Neither Dartmouth nor Union were expected to make the playoffs, and they
didn't, but both have shown some promise this season.  Dartmouth has
improved under first-year head coach Roger Demment, and even though they are
a young team, the Big Green is capable of giving weekend opponents Cornell
and Colgate some trouble.  With some stability at last (Demment is the Big
Green's third head coach in three years), the team should be able to make
some strides next season.  As for Union, last Saturday's big victory over
Cornell in their first-ever visit to Lynah Rink not only shows that the
Dutchmen have "arrived" in Division I, but it may serve as a building block
for future teams.  Yes, the Dutchmen are likely to lose 20 games in their
first ECAC season, but they will be able to look back on that win as a
classic example of what they can do when they really pull together.  If
Princeton and Yale don't want to be next on the Dutchmen's hit list, they
had better not make the mistake of thinking that Union can be taken lightly.
 
A guess at the ECAC's post-season Awards:
 
Player of the Year:  This one will most likely go to St. Lawrence's Mike
Lappin, the league leader in scoring (though not just for that reason).
Certainly Yale forward Mark Kaufmann deserves some consideration, as does
Cornell goaltender Parris Duffus, and defenseman Dan Laperriere would be a
serious threat if he played for any team other than the Saints.  But the
award appears to be Lappin's to lose.
 
Rookie of the Year:  With apologies to guys like Clarkson's Todd Marchant
and Princeton's Ian Sharp, Vermont goaltender Christian Soucy probably has
this one locked up.  With a GAA of just over 3, playing behind a defense
that leaves a bit to be desired, Soucy is the main reason why an otherwise
underachieving Catamount team is still alive for a preliminary round bye.
 
Coach of the Year:  My vote would be for Yale's Tim Taylor, but this award
usually goes to the coach of the team that finishes first.  That makes the
likely winner Harvard's Ronn Tomassoni, especially since the only other
first-place contender is Clarkson, and coach Mark Morris already won the
award last year.  Considering that the Crimson will have finished on top of
the league without their usual star-studded array of talented players,
Tomassoni would definitely be an appropriate choice.
--
Bill Fenwick                        |  Send your HOCKEY-L poll responses to:
Cornell '86 and probably '94        |  [log in to unmask]
LET'S GO RED!!
"I'm not allowed to say anything about the officiating, even if it's bad.  I'm
 not allowed to talk about the officiating, even if it's pathetic."
-- BU head coach Jack Parker after the Feb. 14th game between BU and Lowell,
   in which the officiating did leave a little to be desired