Thanks for the responses regarding my CCHA projections.  I actually got =
some this time so I know someone was looking at them!  I agree Michigan =
is not likely to win every game, they haven't demonstrated that they can =
win the big games yet and that is a problem.  They are only 5-5 against =
teams that received votes in last week's H-L poll.  However, and I don't =
know how exactly to word this, they bring more "potential" (and in fact =
that's normally how I refer to my ratings) to the game than any other =
team in the conference and possibly the country.  They are capable of =
sweeping all the games and unless one leaves room for variance from =
their average performance, that's what I have to go on.  Lots of =
individuals and teams don't live up to their potential and some can go =
well beyond it.  There are all sorts of other factors involved and =
that's what makes college hockey so great.  You just can't predict it =
with certainty.  I'd love to see some rating system factor in how =
consistent a team is too.  So far I haven't seen one.  Perhaps that's a =
project for this summer.
 
Anyway, unlike what someone suggested I don't just look at the two teams =
and take a guess.  I have my own computer rating system.  I have used =
the system for more than 20 years primarily for football, but this is =
the first year I could get the scores on a regular and complete basis to =
do it for hockey thanks to everyone involved here.  It is similar to =
CHODR and in fact I can almost duplicate their system although I have =
some disagreements with how they do it and I can't determine the reason =
for some of the differences.  For example, I believe they count overtime =
games as a tie no matter what the final outcome and I think applying the =
same home ice advantage to every team is completely invalid hence I have =
separate home and away ratings.  For example, Air Force and Army are =
quite competitive on their home ice but very bad on the road.  There are =
also a number of other teams that are similar like Cornell.  Anchorage =
is also very tough at home and just unbelievably bad on the road.  =
Fairbanks is better on the road than at home.  Michigan has been =
tremendous lately at home but is vulnerable on the road (hence this =
weekend).  Lake State is very tough on the road.  I also hate that you =
have to know the average game score and have a calculator to figure out =
game projections.  With mine you just add the numbers.  I'll send the =
ratings or game projections if anyone is interested.  I'd be willing to =
go head-to-head with CHODR but it doesn't really matter that much since =
we are taking similar approaches.  That's why I haven't posted my =
ratings before.  The same kind of projections can be made with theirs or =
any system, I just happen to be able to run mine on demand and whenever =
I get updated scores.
 
I don't claim the CCHA will end up the way I've projected, but it could, =
and it's fun to look at the projected games and see where you are close =
and might be able to pick up a point or two and what games are =
absolutely critical.  That's why I said Notre Dame could upset Bowling =
Green.  I'd favor Bowling Green, but Notre Dame is less than a goal down =
in my game projection so this is a really big opportunity for them.  UIC =
has also got to be a very slight favorite against them, but again it's a =
big game for both teams.  The projected standings are actually not very =
useful without the game projections because it's hard to tell just where =
they are coming from, how close you might be, or how they might be =
changed.
 
Anyway, GO NANOOKS!
 
Eric Carlson
University of Alaska, 1978
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