We'll find out the real story in about 3 hours from when I wrote this,
but until then, I thought I'd try to look as silly as possible and
predict some of the things we will see.
First, the basis for the selections is the Ratings Percentage Index or
RPI. Polls don't count; how teams did last year doesn't count;
whether a coach has a moustach doesn't count. :)
Before RPI, there are a number of automatic selections. First, each
regular season conference winner and each conference tournament winner
gets an automatic berth this year. Boston University was the only team
to win both the regular season and conference tournament, but because
Maine shared the regular season title, we have a total of eight
auto-entries into the tournament. This means that only 4 more teams
will be chosen with RPI. Also, the traditional rule of at least 2 bids
from each conference is automatically satisfied.
Here are the final RPI values for teams "under consideration", plus
Northeastern University. The "*" is for an automatic bid.
1 *Boston University 28- 6- 3 79.73 52.73 50.94 0.5903
2 *Michigan 28- 7- 1 79.17 51.07 49.88 0.5780
3 *Maine 29- 5- 6 80.00 49.91 50.86 0.5767
4 Minnesota 23-13- 5 62.20 55.76 50.80 0.5613
5 New Hampshire 22- 9- 4 68.57 52.59 50.21 0.5599
6 *Colorado College 30-11- 1 72.62 49.43 50.93 0.5560
7 Michigan State 24-11- 3 67.11 50.78 49.52 0.5455
8 *Clarkson 22- 9- 4 68.57 49.64 49.94 0.5445
9 *Wisconsin 23-14- 4 60.98 52.74 51.10 0.5439
10 *Lake Superior 22-11- 6 64.10 50.89 49.94 0.5396
11 Denver 24-14- 2 62.50 50.38 51.72 0.5374
12 Bowling Green 24-11- 2 67.57 47.00 49.91 0.5287
13 Northeastern 16-14- 5 52.86 53.33 50.78 0.5257
...
18 *RPI 18-13- 4 57.14 48.17 48.89 0.5059
11 teams plus RPI will get a bid. Anyone within 0.0100 of
the 11th place team will be considered. NU at 0.5257 is more than
0.0100 from 11th place Denver at 0.5374 and so is not a "team
under consideration.
Bowling Green at 0.5287 is less than the magic 0.0100 from 11th place
Denver at 0.5374 and so we go to the tie-breaking procedure to see who
goes.
The tie-breaker is the sum of 5 parts; if still tied, then the RPI
difference breaks the tie. The 5 parts and Denver/BGSU results, are
(courtesy of Tim Danehy)
(1) RPI - Denver gets a point.
(2) head-to-head - none.
(3) record in last 20 games - BGSU 13-5-2, Denver 10-8-2: BGSU gets a point.
(4) record vs teams under consideration - Denver gets a point
BGSU Denver
vs MSU 2-3 vs Wisc 1-4
vs Mich 0-3 vs Minn 3-2
vs LSSU 1-2 vs CC 2-1-1
vs Wisc 0-1
Total: 3-9 Total: 6-7-1
(5) Record vs Common Opponents: BGSU gets a point
BGSU Denver
vs Wisconsin 0-1 1-4
vs Northeastern 1-0 1-0
vs Ohio State 4-1 1-0
Total 5-2 3-4
So the tie-breaker procedure ends in a 2-2 draw! So the tie-breaker is
RPI .... BGSU loses out.
So if one ranked the teams only by RPI and placed them in East and West
brackets, we get
West East
1 Michigan (2) 1 BU (1)
2 Minnesota (4) 2 ME (3)
3 CC (6) 3 UNH (5)
4 MSU (7) 4 Clarkson (8)
5 Wisconsin (9) 5 ?
6 LSSU (10) 6 RPI (18)
Denver (11)
None of the East bracket teams are within the 0.0100 to cause a
tie-breaker to be invoked, so this is the order.
MN and CC are within the 0.0100. I'm getting short of time, so I'll
just state CC wins the tie-breaker (3-2) and gets the bye.
So now we have..
West East
1 Michigan (2) 1 BU (1)
2 CC (6) 2 ME (3)
3 Minnesota (4) 3 UNH (5)
4 MSU (7) 4 Clarkson (8)
5 Wisconsin (9) 5 ?
6 LSSU (10) 6 RPI (18)
Denver (11)
The next tie-breaker needed is MSU and Wisconsin. I calculate Wisconsin
wins the tie-breaker (3-2), so we now have..
West East
1 Michigan (2) 1 BU (1)
2 CC (6) 2 ME (3)
3 Minnesota (4) 3 UNH (5)
4 Wisconsin (9) 4 Clarkson (8)
5 MSU (7) 5 ?
6 LSSU (10) 6 RPI (18)
Denver (11)
LSSU also ties Wisconsin and MSU in RPI, but I haven't had time to work
out the tie-breakers.
Assuming the above stay, then I would guess MSU would move to the so far
vacant #5East, and then the East and West #5/#6 teams exchanged,
giving..
West East
1 Michigan (2) 1 BU (1)
2 CC (6) 2 ME (3)
3 Minnesota (4) 3 UNH (5)
4 Wisconsin (9) 4 Clarkson (8)
5 MSU (7) 5 LSSU (10)
6 RPI (18) 6 Denver (11)
This also fits in that the committee tries to avoid conference matchups
in the 1st round.
OK, selection committee, what's the real story? :-)
Wayne Smith
The College Hockey Discussion List administrator
Systems Group - CAPS BITNET/CREN: wts@maine
University of Maine System internet: [log in to unmask]
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