>
> > Since RPICH historically has been a good predictor if the NC$$ Tournament
> > picks/seedings in the past, I thought it might be fun to look at the current
> > seeds (as extracted from this week's posting) heading into the play-offs:
>
> > EAST WEST
> > ------------------------------------------
> > Boston Univ. 1 Michigan
> > New Hampshire 2 Minnesota
> > Harvard 3 Wisconsin
> > Maine 4 Lake State
> > UM-Lowell 5 W. Michigan
> > N'Eastern 6 N. Michigan
> > RPI 7 Michigan State
> > Clarkson 8 Colorado College
I assume you're trying to list the top 8 candidates, not 8 seeds in each
(there are only 6 seeds in each)
>
> I see it (based on the 3/13 RPICH) as follows, using this simple
> rule for seeding: take the next highest spot, if there are two
> equal spots, go with the nearest region. This ignores the
> cross-overs and all that (are they doing that this year?):
>
> E W
> 1 BU Michigan
> 2 UNH Harvard
> 3 Maine Minnesota
> 4 Lowel Wisconsin
> 5 Northeastern LSSU
> 6 NMU WMU
This is not possible based on the rules provided. #1, at least 2 teams from
each league make it. and #2, Harvard is an Eastern team. Wrap-around only
occurs with the bottom seeds (#6, #5, #4, etc.)
>
> (top 16 from 3/13 RPICH for those who already deleted it)
> G W L T Win% Win% Win% RPICH
> 1 Boston University 36 28- 7- 1 .7917 .5624 .5219 .6096
> 2 Michigan 38 31- 6- 1 .8289 .5010 .4977 .5822
> 3 New Hampshire 36 22-12- 2 .6389 .5376 .5203 .5586
> 4 Harvard 29 21- 4- 4 .7931 .4691 .4912 .5556
> 5 Minnesota 38 22-12- 4 .6316 .5268 .5120 .5493
> 6 Maine 36 17-15- 4 .5278 .5728 .5204 .5484
> 7 Wisconsin 38 24-13- 1 .6447 .5175 .5139 .5484
> 8 Mass Lowell 36 21- 8- 7 .6806 .4932 .5156 .5456
> 9 Lake Superior 39 26- 9- 4 .7179 .4740 .5079 .5434
> 10 Northeastern 36 19-11- 6 .6111 .5074 .5297 .5389
> 11 Western Michigan 36 22-11- 3 .6528 .4945 .5016 .5358
> 12 Northern Michigan 38 22-15- 1 .5921 .5120 .5155 .5329
>
> 13 Michigan State 37 21-11- 5 .6351 .4924 .5064 .5316
> 14 Colorado College 39 23-11- 5 .6538 .4743 .5171 .5299
> 15 RPI 32 19- 9- 4 .6563 .4872 .4845 .5288
> 16 Clarkson 30 17- 8- 5 .6500 .4866 .4862 .5274
>
Well, one thing we do not have is what the records look like over each team's
last 20 games (something the committee takes very seriously), but, JUST based
on RPICH, the seedings would go like this:
EAST: WEST:
1 Boston University 1 Michigan
2 New Hampshire 2 Minnesota
3 Harvard 3 Wisconsin
4 Maine 4 Lake Superior State
-------------------------------------------------- And the travelling teams:
5 Northeastern 5 Lowell
6 RPI 6 Western Michigan
Personally, I think it would go somewhat different, dropping Maine and adding
Colorado College, moving LSSU up in the seeds, and switching Harvard and UNH.
Even though the west has more well-rated teams, since the ECAC MUST have at
least 2 teams, RPI or Clarkson (Clarkson, IMHO) would get a spot.
Lowell, rated higher than NU or RPI, would get the cross-over seed, getting
#5 in the West (like Wisconsin last year) and thus sending then east to Albany
to play Maine. RPI would travel to play Wis, and NU would be playing LSSU.
In reality, I think Maine, which received a number of their wins with Kariya,
who is now gone, and are 1-3 with the Ferraros would be big losers in the "most
recent 20 games" category. Clarkson would jump over RPI, and LSSU would jump
up a few notches. What I did above was STRICTLY BY THE NUMBERS.
What I think it would look more like would be:
East: West:
1 BU 1 Michigan (assuming they beat LSSU)
2 Harvard (assuming they win ECAC) 2 LSSU
3 UNH 3 Minnesota/Wisconsin (whoever wins WCHA)
4 Lowell 4 Wisconsin/Minn (whever loses WCHA)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
5 Clarkson 5 Colorado College
6 NU (only if RPI does not win ECAC) 6 Western Michigan
If Brown or RPI win the ECAC, NU could be left out. Also, if RPI goes to the
ECAC finals, the selection committee could have a tough choice on their hands.
If someone could calculate and compile how teams have done in their last 20
games, it might shed some light onto how things will go.
Tony BU'92'93
Former Ogre
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