Before we get to the predictions for the league championships, let's
review CHODR's performance in the first week of the playoffs.  After
a lackluster performance in the regular season, the system rebounded
to correctly pick 34 of the 39 games decided in regulation (87.2%).
That brings the season totals to 322 out of 472 (68.2%).
 
Below we have summarized the predictions for the championship weekend
in each league.  Along with the predicted score for each game is the
associated probability of a win for each team.  All possible matchups
for games in each round are listed.  A table for each league summarizes
the chances for each team to make it to the given round and to win the
league championship.  As always, favored teams are capitalized (but
they're not always the higher seed).
 
 
ECAC:
 
Semifinals - Friday, March 18:
 
#4 Brown               2.84 (29.7%) vs #1 HARVARD             4.17 (70.3%)
#3 RPI                 4.16 (56.9%) vs #2 Clarkson            3.70 (43.1%)
 
 
Championship/Consolation - Saturday, March 19:
 
#2 Clarkson            3.17 (36.9%) vs #1 HARVARD             4.02 (63.1%)
#3 RPI                 3.83 (44.4%) vs #1 HARVARD             4.22 (55.6%)
#4 Brown               3.17 (42.3%) vs #2 CLARKSON            3.65 (57.7%)
#4 Brown               3.37 (35.9%) vs #3 RPI                 4.32 (64.1%)
 
 
ECAC Tournament          Finals       Champions
-----------------------------------------------
#1 Harvard               70.3%          41.4%
#4 Brown                 29.7%          11.5%
-----------------------------------------------
#2 Clarkson              43.1%          18.6%
#3 RPI                   56.9%          28.6%
-----------------------------------------------
 
 
Hockey East:
 
Semifinals - Friday, March 18:
 
#4 Northeastern        3.13 (24.3%) vs #1 BOSTON UNIVERSITY   5.02 (75.7%)
#3 New Hampshire       3.63 (47.9%) vs #2 MASS-LOWELL         3.76 (52.1%)
 
 
Championship/Consolation - Saturday, March 19:
 
#2 Mass-Lowell         3.13 (31.1%) vs #1 BOSTON UNIVERSITY   4.41 (68.9%)
#3 New Hampshire       3.11 (29.4%) vs #1 BOSTON UNIVERSITY   4.53 (70.6%)
#4 Northeastern        3.64 (41.1%) vs #2 MASS-LOWELL         4.25 (58.9%)
#4 Northeastern        3.76 (43.1%) vs #3 NEW HAMPSHIRE       4.24 (56.9%)
 
 
Hockey East Tournament   Finals       Champions
-----------------------------------------------
#1 Boston University     75.7%          52.8%
#4 Northeastern          24.3%          10.2%
-----------------------------------------------
#2 Mass-Lowell           52.1%          19.7%
#3 New Hampshire         47.9%          17.3%
-----------------------------------------------
 
 
CCHA:
 
Quarterfinals - Friday, March 18:
 
#6 Bowling Green       2.86 (38.4%) vs #3 MICHIGAN STATE      3.57 (61.6%)
#5 MIAMI               3.24 (51.0%) vs #4 Western Michigan    3.18 (49.0%)
 
 
Semifinals - Saturday, March 19:
 
#4 Western Michigan    2.98 (28.1%) vs MICHIGAN            4.48 (71.9%)
#5 Miami               2.68 (27.8%) vs MICHIGAN            4.13 (72.2%)
#3 Michigan State      2.39 (31.1%) vs LAKE SUPERIOR       3.52 (68.9%)
#6 Bowling Green       2.23 (21.7%) vs LAKE SUPERIOR       4.06 (78.3%)
 
 
Championship - Sunday, March 20: (No Consolation)
 
#2 Lake Superior       3.34 (47.9%) vs #1 MICHIGAN            3.47 (52.1%)
#3 Michigan State      2.85 (30.7%) vs #1 MICHIGAN            4.10 (69.3%)
#6 Bowling Green       2.68 (22.1%) vs #1 MICHIGAN            4.64 (77.9%)
#4 Western Michigan    2.53 (28.2%) vs #2 LAKE SUPERIOR       3.90 (71.8%)
#5 Miami               2.23 (27.9%) vs #2 LAKE SUPERIOR       3.54 (72.1%)
#4 Western Michigan    3.16 (45.9%) vs #3 MICHIGAN STATE      3.41 (54.1%)
#5 Miami               2.86 (46.7%) vs #3 Michigan STATE      3.05 (53.3%)
#6 Bowling Green       3.24 (42.7%) vs #4 WESTERN MICHIGAN    3.70 (57.3%)
#6 Bowling Green       2.88 (41.3%) vs #5 MIAMI               3.40 (58.7%)
 
 
CCHA Tournament        Semifinals       Finals       Champions
--------------------------------------------------------------
#1 Michigan               BYE           72.1%          41.5%
#4 Western Michigan      49.0%          13.8%           4.7%
#5 Miami                 51.0%          14.2%           4.8%
--------------------------------------------------------------
#2 Lake Superior          BYE           72.5%          39.6%
#3 Michigan State        61.6%          19.2%           7.1%
#6 Bowling Green         38.4%           8.3%           2.3%
--------------------------------------------------------------
 
 
WCHA:
 
Quarterfinal - Thursday, March 17:
 
#5 Michigan Tech       3.00 (38.5%) vs #4 NORTHERN MICHIGAN   3.71 (61.5%)
 
 
Semifinals - Friday, March 18:
 
#4 NORTHERN MICHIGAN   3.91 (56.2%) vs #1 Minnesota           3.50 (43.8%)
#5 Michigan Tech       2.86 (44.7%) vs #1 MINNESOTA           3.17 (55.3%)
#3 St Cloud            3.60 (46.5%) vs #2 WISCONSIN           3.83 (53.5%)
 
 
Championship/Consolation - Saturday, March 19:
 
#2 WISCONSIN           3.80 (61.3%) vs #1 Minnesota           3.09 (38.7%)
#3 ST CLOUD            3.87 (57.5%) vs #1 Minnesota           3.39 (42.5%)
#4 Northern Michigan   3.63 (45.3%) vs #2 WISCONSIN           3.94 (54.7%)
#5 Michigan Tech       2.58 (33.1%) vs #2 WISCONSIN           3.61 (66.9%)
#4 Northern Michigan   3.94 (48.8%) vs #3 ST CLOUD            4.01 (51.2%)
#5 Michigan Tech       2.89 (37.2%) vs #3 ST CLOUD            3.68 (62.8%)
 
 
WCHA Tournament        Semifinals       Finals       Champions
--------------------------------------------------------------
#1 Minnesota              BYE           48.2%          19.5%
#4 Northern Michigan     61.5%          34.6%          16.2%
#5 Michigan Tech         38.5%          17.2%           6.0%
--------------------------------------------------------------
#2 Wisconsin              BYE           53.5%          32.1%
#3 St Cloud               BYE           46.5%          26.1%
--------------------------------------------------------------
 
 
Timothy J. Danehy                    [log in to unmask]
Robin Lock                           [log in to unmask]