The following analysis appears on the web at
http://www.slack.net/~whelan/cgi-bin/tbrw.cgi?pcurrent
(or at
http://www.slack.net/~whelan/cgi-bin/tbrw.cgi?pairwise.980316
in case you're having problems with your browser's cache), but I
thought at this stage of the season it was a good idea to repeat it
here. Note that an "upset" in the Hockey East Tournament is now
defined as anyone but BC winning it; between that and the three teams
in the ECAC tournament that are nowhere near the top twelve, it's not
all that unlikely that an automatic bid will even up the Western and
Eastern regions. Also, with Yale already assured a bid, UNH is three
surprise conference champions from missing the ice dance, even if no
one passes them in the pairwise. BU's bye should be a lock,
especially since Clarkson can do no better than 1-1 in the ECAC
tournament if Yale gets the automatic bye.
Now, on to the analysis:
IF THE SEASON ENDED TODAY, 1998 MARCH 16
[...]
In less than a week, the NCAA Selection committee will name the field
of twelve for the national tournament. In the meantime, with only 16
Division I games remaining in the four conference tournaments, let's
look at how the NCAA Tournament selection procedure would be applied
to the present results, which are taken from the Division I Composite
Schedule on US College Hockey Online. First, we perform pairwise
comparisons among the 20 teams with non-losing records, obtaining the
following results (note that you can get the current pairwise rankings
and Ratings Percentage Index from USCHO at any time):
Team PWR RPI Comparisons Won
1 North Dakota 19 .620 MSBUMiCkBCOSNHYaCCWiSCMDNMMeNEMmRPMLPn
2 Mich State 18 .616 __ BUMiCkBCOSNHYaCCWiSCMDNMMeNEMmRPMLPn
3 Boston Univ 17 .595 ____ MiCkBCOSNHYaCCWiSCMDNMMeNEMmRPMLPn
4 Michigan 16 .587 ______ CkBCOSNHYaCCWiSCMDNMMeNEMmRPMLPn
5 Clarkson 14 .573 ________ BCOSNHYaCCWiSC__NMMeNEMmRPMLPn
6 Boston Coll 14 .578 __________ OSNHYaCCWiSCMDNMMeNEMmRPMLPn
7 Ohio State 13 .562 ____________ NHYaCCWiSCMDNMMeNEMmRPMLPn
8 New Hampshire 11 .560 ______________ YaCC__SCMDNMMeNEMmRPMLPn
9 Yale 11 .557 ________________ CCWiSCMDNMMeNEMmRPMLPn
10 CO College 10 .549 __________________ WiSCMDNMMeNEMmRPMLPn
11 Wisconsin 10 .547 ______________NH____ SCMDNMMeNEMmRPMLPn
12 St Cloud 8 .538 ______________________ MDNMMeNEMmRPMLPn
13 Minn-Duluth 7 .520 ________Ck______________ NM__NEMmRPMLPn
14 Northern Mich 6 .529 __________________________ MeNEMmRPMLPn
15 Maine 6 .524 ________________________MD__ NEMmRPMLPn
16 Northeastern 3 .520 ______________________________ MmRP__Pn
17 Miami 3 .517 ________________________________ RPMLPn
18 RPI 2 .501 __________________________________ MLPn
19 Mass-Lowell 2 .508 ______________________________NE____ Pn
20 Princeton 0 .496 ______________________________________
The four regular season champions North Dakota, Michigan State, Yale
and New Hampshire will receive automatic bids to the NCAAs. There are
also automatic bids for the winners of next weekend's conference
tournaments, but we won't know who gets those until Saturday. Working
only from the pairwise comparisons, the other eight bids would go to
Michigan, Ohio State, Colorado College, Wisconsin and St. Cloud in the
West and Clarkson, BC and New Hampshire in the East. (With the
exception of Clarkson/UMD, each of those teams wins comparisons with
the bottom eight teams under consideration, so that's an easy call.)
Other teams that could still grab automatic bids by winning their
conference championships are Harvard, Princeton and Cornell in the
ECAC; Mass-Lowell, Maine and Merrimack in Hockey East;
Minnesota-Duluth in the WCHA; and Northern Michigan in the CCHA.
Harvard and Merrimack in particular could throw a wrench into things,
since they will have losing records even if they win their
tournaments, and will only be considered "Teams Under Consideration"
if they are tournament champions.
But working with the field of twelve we have right now, we notice that
it contains seven Western and five Eastern teams, so we lump St. Cloud
with the Eastern teams to even things out:
West East
1 North Dakota 5 .620 MSMiOSCCWi | 1 Boston Univ 5 .595 CkBCNHYaSC
2 Mich State 4 .616 MiOSCCWi | 2 Clarkson 4 .573 BCNHYaSC
3 Michigan 3 .587 __ OSCCWi | 3 Boston Coll 3 .578 __ NHYaSC
4 Ohio State 2 .562 ____ CCWi | 4 New Hampshire 2 .560 ____ YaSC
5 CO College 1 .549 ______ Wi | 5 Yale 1 .557 ______ SC
6 Wisconsin 0 .547 ________ | 6 St Cloud 0 .538 ________
The Western byes go to North Dakota and Michigan State, while in the
East it's BU and Clarkson, although Yale could snatch one of those
away if they win the ECAC championship. Going strictly by the numbers,
we'd send CC and Wisconsin East and Yale and St. Cloud West:
West East
1 North Dakota (W) 1 .620 MS | 1 Boston Univ (H) 1 .595 Ck
2 Mich State (C) 0 .616 | 2 Clarkson (E) 0 .573
3 Michigan (C) 3 .587 OSYaSC | 3 Boston Coll (H) 3 .578 NHCCWi
4 Ohio State (C) 2 .562 YaSC | 4 New Hampshire (H) 1 .560 CC__
5 Yale (E) 1 .557 __ SC | 5 CO College (W) 1 .549 __ Wi
6 St Cloud (W) 0 .538 ____ | 6 Wisconsin (W) 1 .547 NH__
However, the NCAA wants to avoid potential regionals games between
teams in the same conference, and that's impossible with three teams
from the same conference in a given region. So they'd probably send
New Hampshire West in lieu of Yale. With seven Western teams in the
tournament, if only two of them are to play in the East, we can't help
but have one potential intraconference matchup. However, if the top
two non-bye seeds in the West regional are from the CCHA, that
second-round matchup will be fairly likely. So we need to send one of
the two East to ensure that the second-round matchup will require an
upset. Since Michigan is the host team, they can't be shipped out,
leaving Ohio State. Sending them and keeping Colorado College behind
leads to regionals of:
West East
1 North Dakota (W) 1 .620 MS | 1 Boston Univ (H) 1 .595 Ck
2 Mich State (C) 0 .616 | 2 Clarkson (E) 0 .573
3 Michigan (C) 3 .587 NHCCSC | 3 Boston Coll (H) 3 .578 OSYaWi
4 New Hampshire (H) 2 .560 CCSC | 4 Ohio State (C) 2 .562 YaWi
5 CO College (W) 1 .549 __ SC | 5 Yale (E) 1 .557 __ Wi
6 St Cloud (W) 0 .538 ____ | 6 Wisconsin (W) 0 .547 ____
The only thing to do now is swap Michigan and UNH to avoid the
Michigan-Michigan State matchup in the second round. We should also
switch CC and SCSU to preserve the first-round pairings, giving the
following tournament brackets:
5W St Cloud (W) 6E Wisconsin (W)
4W Michigan (C) 3E Boston Coll (H)
1W North Dakota (W) --+--2E Clarkson (E)
|
2W Mich State (C) --+--1E Boston Univ (H)
3W New Hampshire (H) 4E Ohio State (C)
6W CO College (W) 5E Yale (E)
That was all pretty straightforward. One other wrinkle is that the
committee might opt to keep Wisconsin in the West regional in Ann
Arbor for attendance purposes. Suppose they send Colorado College East
instead (they could choose instead to place St. Cloud in the East, but
CC and SCSU are interchangeable in the resulting brackets):
West East
1 North Dakota (W) 1 .620 MS | 1 Boston Univ (H) 1 .595 Ck
2 Mich State (C) 0 .616 | 2 Clarkson (E) 0 .573
3 Michigan (C) 3 .587 WiNHSC | 3 Boston Coll (H) 3 .578 OSYaCC
4 Wisconsin (W) 2 .547 NHSC | 4 Ohio State (C) 2 .562 YaCC
5 New Hampshire (H) 1 .560 __ SC | 5 Yale (E) 1 .557 __ CC
6 St Cloud (W) 0 .538 ____ | 6 CO College (W) 0 .549 ____
Again, we swap the 3/4 and 5/6 seeds in the West to give the alternate
brackets:
5W St Cloud (W) 6E CO College (W)
4W Michigan (C) 3E Boston Coll (H)
1W North Dakota (W) --+--2E Clarkson (E)
|
2W Mich State (C) --+--1E Boston Univ (H)
3W Wisconsin (W) 4E Ohio State (C)
6W New Hampshire (H) 5E Yale (E)
John Whelan, Cornell '91
<[log in to unmask]>
<http://www.cc.utah.edu/~jtw16960/joe.html>
Learn about the NCAA selection process on the web at
http://www.slack.net/~whelan/cgi-bin/tbrw.cgi?pairwise
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