Robin Lock wrote:
> If Vermont wins the ECAC tourney, they would have both regular season
> and tourney spots and probably beat Lowell in PWR - even if Lowell wins
> Hockey East.
 
I'm quite sure that this is not the case.  If Lowell wins Hockey East I believe
they will be probably around #5 or so in PWR, ahead of Vermont.  I haven't
looked at this exhaustively (that's what computers are for), but winning HE
would give Lowell the best record in the country in Last 20 and move them to
#3 in TUC.  They'd get a *much* bigger bump in RPI due to beating #6 Maine and
(presumably) #1 BU than Vermont would get out of beating unranked Harvard and
a #8 or #13 team in the finals.  If the RPI bump that Lowell gets isn't as
much as I expect, then Vermont could wind up tied with Lowell in PWR, but
otherwise Lowell will be ahead.
 
My non-exhaustive but still Get-A-Life analysis concludes the following changes
in PWR from Lowell as HE champ and Vermont as ECAC champ:
 
For Lowell:
+1      Lowell vs. Clarkson  Tie -> Win  (Clarkson had won RPI tiebreak)
+2      Lowell vs. LSSU  Loss -> Win even if LSSU wins CCHA, because Lowell
                                        drops a loss in Last20 and passes them.
??      Lowell vs. Michigan  Tie -> ???  Michigan currently wins the tiebreak
                                        on a big lead in RPI.  Michigan would
                                        probably have to lose in the semis to
                                        give Lowell any hope of overtaking in
                                        RPI.
+3      Lowell vs. Minnesota  Loss -> Win Mass-Lowell bypasses Minnesota in TUC
+4?     Lowell vs. Vermont   Loss -> Win (maybe)  This is all going to come
                                        down to RPI.  Currently this match is
                                        1-3 but Lowell goes to 2-3 because
                                        they surpass Vermont in Last20 (they
                                        are currently tied and the two games
                                        Vermont drops includes a tie while the
                                        two games Lowell will drop includes a
                                        loss).  So then it will come down to
                                        RPI.  They are currently separated
                                        by slightly less than .01.  Will the
                                        tougher opponents Lowell faces push
                                        them past Vermont?  I don't know, but
                                        I would think so.
        All other results appear to stay as is.
 
For Vermont:
        Vermont vs. Denver      Tie -> Win (but Vermont already wins tiebreaker
                                        RPI so no change)
+1      Vermont vs. Maine       Loss -> Win (since Maine loses in semis)
+2, +3  Vermont vs. LSSU, Michigan, Michigan State   Currently these are all
                                losses.  It got too messy to figure out
                                precisely, but I think the best Vermont can
                                do is drop two of those losses to wins.  This
                                is too dependant on the CCHA permutations.
+2?     Vermont vs. Lowell (see above)
        All other results appear to stay as is.
 
Now, class, are you still with me?  You in the back, take NoDoz next time.
 
So even if Vermont holds onto its lead in RPI, the best it seems it can do is
go from 11 PWR wins to 14.  This seems to be the worst Lowell can do, with the
realistic potential to go to 15-13 Lowell ahead and a slim possibility at
16-13.
 
HOWEVER, I think it's a real possibility that Vermont would still get the #2
seed (unfairly) in the 15-13 scenario so that the committee can do the
politically correct thing in giving all four conferences a bye.  This would
be a shame because I've heard that the Lowell team has established a goal of
being a bye team.  Two years ago they saw firsthand the disadvantages of
playing a rested team (2OT against Minnesota).  I wouldn't mind if the
committee said upfront that winners of both the regular season and tournament
were guaranteed a bye, but they've never said it so it seems that the numbers
should dictate.  Unfortunately, we're not even 100% sure we're using the same
numbers as the committee.  :-(
 
AND ONE MORE HOWEVER.  The odds are certainly much better that Vermont will win
the ECAC than Lowell will win the HE given Lowell's tougher competition.  So
all of this is probably moot, but is what gives meaning to life to cretins like
me.
 
I would invite those of you who are still with me to join our Get-A-Life
organization.  Turn your back on that evil and tedious "real world."  Join us.
It's soooooothing...
 
*****************************************************        ,-******-,
* Dave Hendrickson    "Robo"     [log in to unmask] *     *'     ##     '*
*        A Hockey Polygamist and Get-A-Lifer        *   *##   ___##___   ##*
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* Although I can't remember ever having an original * *      |  |___)  |     *
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