Doug Garn writes:
>ANY team can beat any other team on a given day.  Happens quite frequently
>in sports where the celler dwellers in a sport beat the 1st or 2nd place
>team.  Witness Merrimack beating BU this past week.  Here's another one.
>I shoot in a pool league and we are in second place out of 29 teams.
>A few weeks ago we were playing the LAST place team and they beat us
>soundly 9-6!  This is the kind of match we should have won 13-2 or 14-1.
>Can I explain it?  Not really.  I can only say that there guys played
>above there capabilities and we played below theres.
 
This brings up an interesting point, because some of us were discussing how
much of a surprise Merrimack's win over BU was.  My assessment, shared by
some who follow other teams, is that Merrimack is a much better team than
its record and is not your typical "cellar-dweller".  It may point out the
relative strength of Hockey East.  Rarely do you find a team that is in 9th
place or lower in its league yet which plays consistently well against the
top teams.  Merrimack has beaten BU and lost five close games to BU and
Lowell.  Merrimack has also not lost any of its 33 games by more than four
goals, and only two of their 18 losses (10-18-5) came by a four goal margin
(both Maine).  Three losses were by three goals, and 13 were by one or two
goals.
 
The BU-Merrimack series is particularly interesting.  Parker was quoted in
the paper Saturday as saying, "I knew [Merrimack] would come out flying and
play us hard, but our guys must have thought differently."  My thought was,
why would they have expected anything different?  BU and Merrimack have met
7 times over a span of just over a year, and each game went down to the
wire.  Although Merrimack's win Friday was an upset, anyone familiar with
the history between the two teams would be hard-pressed to call the win a
surprise.
 
The real surprise was the way in which it happened, with Merrimack opening
a 4-1 lead after two.  BU only led one of the seven games after two
periods, and that was by a 4-2 score (03/12/95).  Three were tied after
two, and the other three were led by Merrimack after two.  Two of those
latter three resulted in Merrimack wins.
 
Is it a case of one team just having another team's number?  Maybe, but BU
is also not the only team Merrimack has played tough.  18 of their 23
non-wins this year were either decided by 1 or 2 goals or wound up ties.
That's not typical for a last place team.  I have said that it is
indicative of a team that just lacks confidence and experience and a
learned ability to win close games.
 
Here's how the teams have done against each other in the seven games they
have played the last two seasons.  BU has gone 5-2-0 and outscored
Merrimack 33-24, although if you discount two empty netters and two late
PPGs BU scored in one game (see 12/08/95), the effective GF-GA drops to
29-24.  Over seven games, that's an average score difference of less than
one goal a game (or just over a goal if you do count all goals).
 
01/13/95 Merrimack 3, at BU 2
* MC led 2-1 after one and weathered a BU storm in the third to get the
win.  BU pulls goalie in final minute, no scoring.
 
02/24/95 BU 4, at Merrimack 1
* 1-1 after two, MC had a goal disallowed at the buzzer that ended the
second period.  Halfway through the third, Joubert gives BU a 2-1 lead.
Grier adds an insurance goal on the power play with 3 min left.  MC pulls
goalie and BU tallies the ENG.  (effective score: BU 3-1)
 
02/25/95 at BU 5, Merrimack 3
* MC led 3-1 early in the third and still led 3-2 until Thornton tied it on
the PP with 7:04 left.  The winner comes with 5:31 left and a Bates
insurance goal makes it 5-3.
 
03/12/95 at BU 4, Merrimack 3 (HE Quarterfinal)
* BU led 4-1 early in the second on the strength of a Joubert hat trick,
but Krauss scores twice to pull MC within one by the two minute mark of the
third.  MC pulls goalie in final minute and has chances to tie, but BU
holds on for the win.
 
12/08/95 BU 6, at Merrimack 1
* 1-1 after two and 2-1 BU till Lachance makes it 3-1 with 4:28 left.  MC
pulls goalie and BU nails the ENG.  MC takes several frustration penalties
and BU scores on the power play twice in the last two minutes.  (effective
score: BU 3-1)
 
12/09/95 at BU 8, Merrimack 6
* 3-3 after two, BU explodes for 5 goals (2 PPG) to lead 8-3 by the 8:14
mark.  MC comes back with three to cut it to 8-6, pulls goalie, no scoring.
 
02/23/96 at Merrimack 7, BU 4
* MC leads 4-1 after two and 5-1 early in third, BU pulls within 5-4.  MC
scores twice on major penalty power play to insure win.
 
---                                                                   ---
Mike Machnik                   [log in to unmask]            *HMM* 11/13/93
>> Co-owner of the College Hockey Lists at University of Maine System  <<
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