I really hate things come tournament time.
In my opinion, any time a select group of individuals must make a qualitative
determination for playoff spots, mistakes will be made.
At least in the pros, say the NFL, sure, some teams with good records are not
in the playoffs, but at least they know why and the rules are plain and
clear before the season starts With all the criteria in the NCAA more
people than not are scratching their heads wondering why this team is out
there, not here, why didn't my team make it, etc.
So, in everyone's best interests, I've devised a quantitative method of
ascertaining who makes the NCAA tournament, where they're seeded, and where
they go. I ask nothing in return for this immense service.
One final note: This system is not fair, isn't intended to be, and never
will be. It'll just get rid of a committee and all the damn computer
rankings we always see.
OK, here we go--
WHO MAKES THE NCAA's?
The following rules apply:
1. There will be 12 teams.
2. There will be at least two from each conference.
3. The tournament and regular season champions automatically go.
Now, with four conferences, that leaves 8 positions that must be filled
according to conference. These are the 'Conference Bids' and are
allotted as such:
1. Tournament Champion
2. Regular Season Champion
3. If you have a Dual Champion (both Regular Season and Tournament), and one
team finished second in both the Regular Season and Tournament, that team
gets the second slot for that conference.
4. If there is a Dual Champion and separate teams finished second in the RS
and Tournament, then one of these teams will go, to be determined by
whichever had the best head-to-head record. If tied, these are the
tiebreakers:
a. Record vs. the Dual Champion
b. Overall Division 1 winning percentage (counting only games against
teams eligible for the tournament)
c. Fewest conference losses in the RS
By the time you get to 4c, you have 8 of the 12 teams.
The 4 remaining 'At-Large' bids go this way:
1. Only teams with D1 records .500 or better are eligible.
2. Take any teams that finished second in the RS or Tournament that are not
already in. If 4 or less, they all go in. If more than 4, rank
according to D1 winning percentage and take the top four. If there
is a tie for the last spot, break it according to:
a. Head-to-head record
b. Winning percentage in RS conference play (regardless of conference)
c. Record vs. common opponents
3. If there were fewer than 4 teams in 'At-Large' part 2, rank the remaining
eligible teams by D1 winning percentage and take the highest needed to
fill out the field. If there is a tie for the last spot, break it in
the same manner as in step 2.
By now you have 12 teams.
WHO GETS SEEDED WHERE?
Each conference will have one team getting a bye in each region. The team
that gets the bye must have won one of the two championships. Dual
champions automatically get a bye.
If separate champions, the better head-to-head record gets the bye. If tied,
then the better D1 winning percentage. Still tied, fewest conference losses.
Once you have the bye teams in each region, you seed #1 and #2 based on
better head-to-head record. If tied, D1 winning percentage, then RS
conference winning percentage.
The remaining seeds in each region will alternate among conferences,
following the order of the first two, so #1, 3 & 5 are from the same
conference. If a conference runs out of teams, the other conference fills
in the remaining slots in order. Teams not receiving a bye are seeded within
their conference to determine their slot, based on head-to-head, then D1
winning percentage, then fewest conference losses.
If one conference exceeds the number of slots in their region, they fill in
the remaining slots in the other region. Teams seeded out of region must
be below all the teams in that region. For example, if the west has 8 teams
and the east 4, seeds #7 and #8 in the west become #5 and #6, respectively,
in the east.
Once that is done, two seeds in each region must be swapped with the
corresponding seeds in the other. These will be seeds #5 and #6 UNLESS it
would involve moving a team that is hosting the tournament into the other
region. Then that number is skipped and the next lowest number that does
not involve switching a host team is used. However, if a team is seeded
in the other region, it can be swapped back to its host region.
That's it, you have the pairs.
HOW WOULD THIS WORK OUT THIS YEAR?
Conference Bids--
Tournament champions: Michigan, Cornell, PC, Minnesota
RS champions: BU, UVM, LSSU, CC
Two teams from each conference already, so conference bids are filled.
Move to the At-large bids--
Teams finishing 2nd in RS or Tournament and .500 or better:
Clarkson, UMass-Lowell
Highest remaining teams according to D1 winning percentage:
WMU, MSU
Remember, Maine is ineligible.
That gives twelve teams.
Determine bye team from each conference:
ECAC: Cornell and UVM split series 0-0-2, UVM has better D1 %.
HE: BU over PC 3-1
CCHA: LSSU and Michigan split series 2-2. Michigan has better D1 %.
WCHA: CC over Minnesota 2-1-1
Determine number 1 seed in each region:
CC and Michigan have not played. CC has better D1 %.
BU over UVM 1-0.
Seeds so far:
West East
1 CC BU
2 Michigan UVM
3 <wcha> <he>
4 <ccha> <ecac>
5 <wcha> <he>
6 <ccha> <ecac>
Determine order of seeds within each conference:
ECAC: Cornell over Clarkson 2-1
HE: UMass-Lowell over PC 3-0
CCHA: Three-way tie, with LSSU winning 3-2-1, MSU second at 3-3, and
WMU third with 2-3-1
WCHA: Minnesota is the only team
Seeds before swapping:
West East
1 CC BU
2 Michigan UVM
3 Minnesota UMass-Lowell
4 LSSU Cornell
5 MSU PC
6 WMU Clarkson
Swapping:
#6 teams swap, #5 teams are forbidden since MSU is hosting, so #4 teams swap.
Final seedings and locations:
East Lansing Albany
1 CC BU
2 Michigan UVM
3 Minnesota UMass-Lowell
4 Cornell LSSU
5 MSU PC
6 Clarkson WMU
First round matchups:
Clarkson vs. Minnesota
MSU vs. Cornell
WMU vs. UMass-Lowell
LSSU vs. PC
Second round matchups:
CC vs. Cornell-MSU winner
Michigan vs. Minnesota-Clarkson winner
BU vs. LSSU-PC winner
UVM vs. UMass-Lowell-WMU winner
Actually, six of the teams are in the exact position my way as they
are in this year's tournament (BU, UVM, CC, Michigan, Minnesota, MSU).
No need for a committee whatsoever. Just let the system run itself. OK,
you need the committee to make the rules. But once the season starts,
everything should run on its own.
----------
Kurt Stutt http://www.rpi.edu/~stuttk/hockey.html
[log in to unmask] The College Hockey Historical Archives
Troy, New York
http://www.rpi.edu/~stuttk/wrpispts.html
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