At 10:47 AM 11/15/95, Steven R. Glazewski wrote:
>The problem I have with the approach discussed by Matt (which, I think is
>the
>approach used by most pollsters in almost every poll) is that it requires
>thought
>only once a year, when you conceive your "gong-in position" or "pre-season
>favorites" or whatever.  Then it relies on a method of making little tweaks
>and
>deviations as you go (e.g., Team A was swept, so they go down, but it was on
>the road vs a tough opponent, so they don't go too far down, etc).
 
The times that I have remembered to vote in Glen's poll, I have just thrown
away my ballot from the previous week and always started anew.  I don't
like the method of moving teams up and down based just on one week.  Maybe
I ranked a certain team much too high or low the week before.
 
The points Matt raised were good because they show how people that complain
about one specific team's position need to consider that there are other
teams out there and that those teams may have as much of a claim to their
positions.  But it's still hard to put aside individual biases towards
favorite teams and conferences, as well as teams you've seen more often and
know better.  That's why ratings (*not* polls) can be interesting, they
purport to put such biases aside and consider all teams equally with regard
to the criteria under which the rating was developed.  But it's still
important to know what those criteria are so you can decide if you think
the method of ranking is a valid one.
 
>A better approach, IMO, is to ask yourself
>the "300 games question":  if two teams played 100 games at each home, and
>100 at a neutral site, who'd have the most points (POINTS, not goals)?
 
This is an example of one approach, but I know some people have
others...some are:
 
* How good you think the teams are right now
* How well the teams have proven themselves
* How good you think the teams will be at the end of the season
 
Who knows which is most valid?  Everyone has a different opinion.  And when
you have all of these different views of what the poll should be, it
probably makes it more difficult to get a reading from everyone.  One
person may rank Maine low because he or she does not think Maine is playing
too well right now, another may still rank them high on the belief that
Maine will "be there in the end" based on what they've seen even if they
are struggling now.
 
>If you
>haven't seen a particular team, go by what you read on hockey-l or other
>sources.  I know it's tough for us; my main argument is against the "profes-
>sional" pollsters who supposedly have an informed opinion (at least they
>supposedly have access to game tapes that we don't {with the possible
>exception of Mike Machnik ;^) }).
 
Well, I don't know that anyone really has an advantage over anyone else...I
do think that some of the voters in the "real" polls make a better effort
than others to find out as much as they can about the teams they are
considering.  But it is difficult to be able to give a valid opinion about
so many teams when you don't get to see a lot of them, and this is the
situation most poll voters are in.
 
Like many people in my area, I know more about the HE teams and some ECAC
teams because I get to see them more, live and on tv - we're fortunate
enough to have wide coverage of many different teams in Boston, and it's
easy to go see a game involving almost any two HE teams.  Many people are
not as fortunate, and of course I don't get to see the Western teams very
much.  I'd say that there's actually too much for me to see - with other
commitments, there's no way I can find the time to watch all of the games
that are on tv around here in a given week.  And I have trouble watching a
game whose result I already know unless it is a big game or something
noteworthy happened.  I start thinking of other things I should be doing
and usually wind up doing them. :-)
 
---                                                                   ---
Mike Machnik                   [log in to unmask]            *HMM* 11/13/93
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