CCHA STANDINGS AND PROJECTIONS
 
Michigan dropped three points over the weekend to throw the CCHA back =
into a four way battle while Miami and Ohio State picked up 2 each with =
a surprise win and two ties respectively.  The Redskins moved past =
Alaska-Fairbanks into 6th place and if Ohio State can sustain their =
improvement the rest of the way and pick up some more points they still =
have a shot at a playoff berth.  It's unfortunate for them that they =
couldn't hang on for wins in either game, because they are going to have =
a difficult time making up the rest of the deficit.  With two losses to =
Michigan State, Illinois-Chicago dropped into last place in the CCHA and =
into deep trouble if they want to make it into the playoffs.
 
Michigan State moved into first place with their two wins and now is in =
the driver's seat in the conference.  They control their own destiny =
with a 4 point lead but face the toughest finish of any of the top four =
teams with two games remaining against Western Michigan and Michigan and =
single games with Lake Superior and Bowling Green.  Michigan, which =
dropped to a tie for third with Lake Superior 5 points back, is capable =
of winning the conference with 10 straight wins to close out the season, =
but basically the conference is up for grabs by the top four teams.
 
This a big week for the bottom teams in the CCHA.  Notre Dame plays =
three games with a shot at upset wins Tuesday at home against Bowling =
Green and on the road Friday at UIC.  They finish up with a road game =
Saturday at Michigan State.  Alaska-Fairbanks hits the road again to =
Miami for a pair of games which could go either way.  Fairbanks took the =
first game earlier and one win would give them the season series.  If =
either team picks up both wins they almost assure themselves a spot in =
the playoffs.  Two losses for either will hurt particularly for =
Fairbanks.  Ferris State will be on the road to Western Michigan and =
Michigan State.  Ohio State will also be on the road with two games =
against Michigan.  Ferris State will be a 2-3 goal underdog both games =
and we may be seeing a preview of the opening round of the playoffs on =
Thursday night against Western Michigan, while Ohio State is likely to =
return home another victim of Michigan's home ice juggernaut.  After =
UIC's Friday game at home against Notre Dame--one that UIC almost must =
win at this point--their final game will be home on Saturday against =
Western Michigan.
 
And now projecting the rest of the way (based only on my own methods, =
which are meant to be unbiased even if not ultimately accurate)...
 
                                CURRENT       REMAINING       PROJECTED
                            W  L  T PTS     W  L  T PTS     W  L  T PTS =
LAST WEEK
  1 Michigan               15  4  1  31    10  0  0  20    25  4  1  51  =
54 -3
  2 Western Michigan       15  4  2  32     8  0  1  17    23  4  3  49  =
49  0
  3 Lake Superior          15  4  1  31     8  2  0  16    23  6  1  47  =
47  0
  4 Michigan State         18  3  0  36     4  4  1   9    22  7  1  45  =
45  0
  5 Bowling Green          10  8  1  21     5  4  2  12    15 12  3  33  =
33  0
  6 Miami                   6 11  3  15     2  5  3   7     8 16  6  22  =
20  2
  7 Ferris State            5 14  2  12     3  4  2   8     8 18  4  20  =
20  0
  8 Alaska-Fairbanks        7 16  0  14     2  3  2   6     9 19  2  20  =
20  0
  9 Notre Dame              5 11  3  13     1  8  2   4     6 19  5  17  =
17  0
 10 Illinois-Chicago        4 15  1   9     1  7  2   4     5 22  3  13  =
14 -1
 11 Ohio State              3 13  4  10     1  8  1   3     4 21  5  13  =
11  2
                                                                         =
    =20
    PLAYOFF PROJECTIONS                                                  =
    =20
                                                                         =
    =20
    Alaska-Fairbanks                                                     =
    =20
 at Michigan                                                             =
    =20
                                                                         =
    =20
    Ferris State                                                         =
    =20
 at Western Michigan                                                     =
    =20
                                                                         =
    =20
    Miami                                                                =
    =20
 at Lake Superior                                                        =
    =20
                                                                         =
    =20
    Bowling Green                                                        =
    =20
 at Michigan State                                                       =
    =20
 
If these projections hold up--and it will now take a big finish for =
Michigan to pull it off--we may well yet see a third visit and rounds 4 =
to 6 of Nanook Bob Schwark vs. Michigan.  For the Nanook's sake, I hope =
he learned something last time.
 
Eric Carlson
University of Alaska, 1978
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