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Date: | Mon, 16 Mar 1992 23:17:05 EDT |
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With apologies to Erik Biever - who did all the work. I'd like to offer a
Modified Rating Percentage Index for College Hockey (MRPICH).
The only change is to adjust the weights slightly to put 40% on a team's
winning percentage, keep 40% on the average opponent's winning percentage
and reduce the opponents'-opponents' percentage factor to 20% (as opposed
to the 20%-40%-40% split in RPICH). I would be interested if anyone knows
of a theoretical basis for the 20-40-40 weights - having 80% of the weight
based on WHO you play and only about 20% on HOW you play seems a bit extreme
to me. Others might want to go even further than 40-40-20 which is used for
the rankings below. However, barring major suprises in the CCHA and WCHA
final weekends - I'll bet there's a good chance that the top 12 MRPICH teams
below are the 12 which make the NCAA playoffs.
Note: I do not intend to add this as a regular installment to our alphabet
soup of rating systems, but thought some list readers might be interested
in it as a one shot look.
Three sets of rankings are given, based on the straight won-loss-tie pct. (WL)
and both the RPICH (RP) and MRPICH (MRP).
WL RP MRP Gms W L T PCT Opp% O-Opp% RPICH MRPICH
1 1 1 Maine 34 29- 3-2 0.882 0.508 0.508 0.583 0.658
3 2 2 Minnesota 41 32- 9-0 0.780 0.530 0.512 0.573 0.627
2 3 3 Michigan 40 30- 7-3 0.788 0.519 0.518 0.572 0.626
4 7 4 Alaska-Anchor. 29 21- 7-1 0.741 0.506 0.479 0.542 0.595
7 4 5 Lake Superior 36 23- 9-4 0.694 0.523 0.522 0.557 0.591
6 6 6 Boston Univer. 33 21- 8-4 0.697 0.499 0.516 0.545 0.582
9 5 7 Michigan State 38 21- 9-8 0.658 0.532 0.522 0.553 0.580
5 12 8 St Lawrence 31 22- 8-1 0.726 0.476 0.492 0.532 0.579
11 8 9 New Hampshire 36 22-12-2 0.639 0.532 0.499 0.540 0.568
10 9 10 Wisconsin 37 23-12-2 0.649 0.509 0.513 0.539 0.566
13 11 11 Northern Mich. 38 22-13-3 0.618 0.513 0.515 0.535 0.555
8 16 12 Clarkson 30 20- 9-1 0.683 0.457 0.492 0.516 0.554
14 10 13 Providence 36 21-13-2 0.611 0.517 0.516 0.535 0.554
12 13 14 Harvard 27 14- 7-6 0.630 0.503 0.487 0.522 0.551
15 18 15 Yale 26 12- 7-7 0.596 0.486 0.487 0.509 0.530
19 14 16 Miami 38 17-15-6 0.526 0.516 0.516 0.518 0.520
18 15 17 Western Mich. 36 16-14-6 0.528 0.510 0.517 0.516 0.519
16 26 18 Cornell 29 14-11-4 0.552 0.480 0.477 0.493 0.508
20 19 19 Colorado Coll. 39 18-16-5 0.526 0.488 0.510 0.504 0.507
25 17 20 Boston College 35 14-18-3 0.443 0.560 0.507 0.515 0.503
17 30 21 Vermont 30 15-12-3 0.550 0.459 0.483 0.487 0.500
24 22 22 North Dakota 39 17-21-1 0.449 0.512 0.515 0.501 0.487
26 21 23 Ferris State 38 13-18-7 0.434 0.521 0.516 0.502 0.485
21 28 24 RPI 32 13-15-4 0.469 0.503 0.480 0.487 0.485
27 24 25 Minn.-Duluth 37 15-20-2 0.432 0.513 0.511 0.496 0.480
31 23 26 Michigan Tech 38 15-22-1 0.408 0.535 0.512 0.500 0.480
38 20 27 UMass-Lowell 32 9-19-4 0.344 0.578 0.506 0.502 0.470
34 25 28 Ohio State 38 12-21-5 0.382 0.532 0.515 0.495 0.468
22 34 29 Princeton 27 12-14-1 0.463 0.466 0.477 0.470 0.467
33 27 30 St Cloud 35 13-21-1 0.386 0.514 0.513 0.488 0.463
32 33 31 Brown 30 10-16-4 0.400 0.512 0.477 0.475 0.460
35 31 32 Northeastern 32 12-20-0 0.375 0.521 0.505 0.485 0.459
37 29 33 Ill.-Chicago 36 10-20-6 0.361 0.520 0.517 0.487 0.456
23 39 34 Alaska-Fairb. 31 14-17-0 0.452 0.451 0.467 0.458 0.455
28 35 35 Colgate 29 12-16-1 0.431 0.462 0.482 0.464 0.453
29 37 36 Kent 26 10-14-2 0.423 0.469 0.479 0.464 0.452
39 32 37 Bowling Green 34 8-21-5 0.309 0.532 0.523 0.484 0.441
36 38 38 Merrimack 33 12-21-0 0.364 0.471 0.501 0.461 0.434
30 40 39 Ala.-Huntsville 19 8-11-0 0.421 0.424 0.475 0.444 0.433
41 36 40 Denver 36 9-25-2 0.278 0.509 0.511 0.464 0.417
40 42 41 Notre Dame 27 8-19-0 0.296 0.408 0.470 0.410 0.376
43 41 42 Dartmouth 26 3-21-2 0.154 0.493 0.481 0.420 0.355
45 43 43 Union 24 2-21-1 0.104 0.475 0.483 0.404 0.328
42 45 44 Air Force 26 4-22-0 0.154 0.383 0.459 0.367 0.306
44 44 45 Army 18 2-16-0 0.111 0.414 0.456 0.370 0.301
Results are based on the 3-15-92 RPICH data supplied by Erik.
Robin Lock
St. LAwrence University
(One might detect an not so subtle bias in offering this by comparing
how SLU and other ECAC teams fare under the three rankings)
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