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Fri, 26 Mar 2004 07:24:15 -0600 |
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There is a straightforward extension which adds the effects of
home-ice advantage to the Bradley-Terry method used in KRACH. The
resulting rating system is one I've taken to calling KASA (KRACH
Adjusted for Site Advantage). It's not being published anywhere yet,
but I've got some code to calculate it.
Here are the odds for each team to advance to a given round of the
NCAAs according to their KASA ratings. Since no one is playing on
home ice, the odds don't look much different from those from KRACH.
____O d d s o f w i n n i n g____
Seed ___Team___ KASA 1 game 2 games 3 games 4 games
1M Minnesota 518.26 73.06% 42.19% 18.79% 10.10%
2M Minnesota-Duluth 483.98 71.44% 39.00% 16.76% 8.737%
3M Michigan State 193.47 28.56% 9.542% 2.322% 0.7223%
4M Notre Dame 191.07 26.94% 9.269% 2.236% 0.6897%
1E Maine 582.45 82.05% 54.61% 32.38% 15.92%
2E Ohio State 260.79 44.87% 16.80% 6.812% 2.116%
3E Wisconsin 320.37 55.13% 23.13% 10.48% 3.708%
4E Harvard 127.44 17.95% 5.461% 1.408% 0.2607%
1N Boston College 564.01 86.33% 60.76% 34.97% 16.93%
2N Michigan 259.31 55.03% 20.56% 8.061% 2.494%
3N New Hampshire 211.87 44.97% 14.93% 5.181% 1.398%
4N Niagara 89.344 13.67% 3.752% 0.7071% 0.09826%
1W North Dakota 904.94 93.32% 69.85% 47.32% 31.52%
2W Denver 364.60 63.16% 20.51% 9.536% 4.324%
3W Miami 212.69 36.84% 8.43% 2.871% 0.9500%
4W Holy Cross 64.817 6.684% 1.212% 0.1702% 0.02309%
Credits: USCHO, me, Ken Butler, Davidson & Beaver, Bradley & Terry,
Zermelo.
John Whelan, Cornell '91
[log in to unmask]
http://www.amurgsval.org/joe/
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