Not to belabor the NC$$ seedings issue any more than is absolutely necess-
ary, but there was one decision by the selection committee that really
surprised me, and I don't think it's been mentioned yet.  I'm referring to
Lake Superior getting the #1W seed over Michigan.  Not that it matters much,
since both teams are getting a bye, but...
 
By my calculations, Michigan has the edge in three of five selection cri-
teria:  Division I record, record among common opponents (i.e. the rest of
the CCHA), and record among teams "under consideration."  The Lakers get the
edge in strength of schedule, with the head-to-head series even at 2-2.
Looking at the last three criteria, the Last 10 and Last 15 are basically a
wash (Michigan was slightly better in its last ten games, Lake Superior had
the slight edge in its last 15), leaving us with conference tournament
result, which favors the Lakers.  Thus, the Wolverines have the edge in four
categories while Lake Superior wins three, with one even.
 
The numbers I came up with (which I hope are accurate) are below.  "Schedule
strength" comes from RPICH.  For "Teams considered", I wasn't sure who the
selection committee was considering for bids.  I was pretty certain that the
top 16 in the latest RPICH received some consideration (the twelve tourney
teams plus RPI, Michigan State, UMass-Lowell, and New Hampshire).  However,
committee chairman Laing Kennedy also indicated that Providence (#20 in
RPICH) was considered too, so I also looked at records against the top 20
(which would also add Michigan Tech, Western Michigan, and Ferris State to
the mix).  It looks like Michigan has the edge in this category no matter
what, though.
 
                         Lake Superior       Michigan            Edge
 
Div. I record            27-7-5 (0.756)      28-6-2 (0.806)      Michigan
Schedule strength        0.5612              0.5551              LSSU
Head-to-head             2-2 (0.500)         2-2 (0.500)         Even
Common opponents         23-3-5 (0.823)      24-3-2 (0.862)      Michigan
Teams considered (16)    5-7-2 (0.429)       6-4-1 (0.591)       Michigan
                 (20)    10-7-3 (0.575)      11-5-2 (0.667)
 
Last 10                  8-1-1 (0.850)       9-1 (0.900)         Michigan
Last 15                  13-1-1 (0.900)      13-2 (0.867)        LSSU
Tourney results          5-0 Champion        2-1 Lost to LSSU    LSSU
                                                 in semifinals
 
To me, it looks like the committee weighed the tournament result, and the
fact that Lake Superior bumped off Michigan on the way to the championship,
fairly heavily.  I'm not saying that's wrong, but it was my understanding
that post-season games don't carry any more weight than regular-season games
as far as the selection committee is concerned.
--
Bill Fenwick                        |  Send your HOCKEY-L poll responses to:
Cornell '86 and probably '94        |  [log in to unmask]
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