Charlie said..
> >  5    11  Minnesota          12    8- 3- 1      28.33     146.67  W14,W14
> > 12     8  Colorado College   10    7- 0- 3      34.00     107.50  W35,W35
>
> yeah, right, CC is 1-0-1 against minnesota
 
(fwiw, unofficial RPI has MN & CC in a dead heat for 7th).
 
CC has played NMU 4 times for 4 wins.  NMU's 2-9-1 NCAA record yields a
"value" (the HEAL PI) for each win of only 8.33, well into the bottom
1/4 of all teams.  The 2 Wisconsin (2-7-1) wins are worth only 10.00
each.  The 2 MTU (2-7-3) wins are worth only 11.67, still bottom 1/3 of
all teams. The 1.5 wins against MN helps, but MN (8-3-1) is in the
second 1/4 of teams with a good 28.33 value.
 
MNs record has been slightly worse but with, at this point, "better"
competition.
 
The HEAL, or any other ranking this early in the season, cannot
predict the end of season ranks ... there are too few common opponents
and schedule weights are unduly unbalanced because of this.
 
> > 16    19  Mass Lowell         9    6- 1- 2      31.11      89.84  W43,W38,W38
> > 27    22  Air Force           8    0- 5- 3       7.50      51.39  L44,L44
> > 35    26  Illinois-Chicago   10    4- 4- 2      20.00      31.81  L3,L3
> > 38    27  Yale                6    2- 4- 0      13.33      25.00  L32,L41
> > 40    43  Rensselaer          8    3- 5- 0      15.00      22.92  W22,W22
>
> yeah, right, look at air force and its opponents.  Air force is
> winless, has been beaten soundly by Yale and Rensselear, has two ties
> with lowell, and a tie and a loss with UIC.
 
AF has 1.5 wins in the eyes of HEAL, but thats still a bottom-5 record.
That means that the Yale and RPI wins over AF aren't much better than
losses.  Yale/RPI's only other win is against #43 Dartmouth!
 
The AF ties were with UML (one of the best records so far) twice, and
UIC, an exactly average team (so far).
 
AF may be winless, but they've done "better" than Yale/RPI IMHO also.
 
Now one might say a team with 4 wins (UIC) must be "better" than a
winless team (AF).  The UIC wins and tie are all with teams in the
bottom 1/4 of teams in terms of wins/losses (PI).  The AF ties are all
worth more than the UIC wins(in the eyes of HEAL)!
 
AF may even be close to the current rank if they can manage 2 or 3 ties
with upcoming CC and PC.  More likely, that won't happen and AF will
plummet.  In this respect, HEAL is not a predicter as much as a measure
of performance so far.
 
Thanks for the comments,
 
Wayne T. Smith
Systems Group -- CAPS        internet: [log in to unmask]
University of Maine System   BITNET/CREN: WTS@MAINE
 
HOCKEY-L is for discussion of college ice hockey;  send information to
[log in to unmask], The College Hockey Information List.