I had some brief discussions with people over the past weekend about
which teams have been the surprises of the season, both good and bad.
I thought I would compare the various Ratings Percentage Index values
from the end of last year (March 17, 1997) and the most recent ratings
I downloaded from USCHO (as of Jan. 20, 1998). I have listed the
results below (any errors in numbers or calculations are mine, of course.)
I am curious if anyone sees any surprises in these numbers or wants to
comment on how some teams are doing so far (or are expected to do during
the remainder of the 1998 season.)
I compared both the relative ordinal ranking for each team and the raw
RPI value between the two listed dates, and calculated the increase or
decrease in the numbers. I also computed a rough average for each
league to see how the overall league numbers changed from last year
to this year (complicated by the move of Northern Mich. to the CCHA this
year from the WCHA.) In general, Hockey East and CCHA have seen
substantial improvement, the WCHA has not changed much, and the ECAC has
dropped substantially. I expect this reflects the large number of
interleague games between Hockey East and the ECAC, which was favorable
to the ECAC last year but is strongly favorable to Hockey East this year.
Note that the move of Northern Mich. to the CCHA has helped their
overall averages because NMU is one of the best-improved teams this year.
Among individual teams, you have to realize that teams that were near
the top last year can't really show much improvement, and teams near
the bottom almost have to show improvement (can't get much lower.) In
general, the ratings are only a rough guide anyway (there are plenty of
other people out there who have invented their own rating systems) but
they provide a consistent set of rules for comparison.
The biggest improvements are Northeastern, Notre Dame, Yale, Northern
Michigan, Mankato State, Boston College, Wisconsin, and Ohio State.
Most of these teams have been lauded for their improvements this year,
though I think Notre Dame, Wisconsin, and Ohio State haven't gotten as
much press as the Eastern teams, and only the Minnesotans have tended
to notice Mankato's rise in anticipation of their entry into the WCHA
next year.
The teams with the biggest regressions are generally known: Vermont,
Union, Denver, Minnesota, Bowling Green, Mass Amherst, and Clarkson.
Clarkson is perhaps a bit of a surprise here; they were so high in the
rankings last year that they show a large drop even with an okay 1998
season. I expect that as 1998 continues they will improve rapidly and
change their relative status. UMass Amherst was not real high last year
but they are having a really tough year this year (one that is somewhat
unexpected.) Most of the others have suffered large losses to graduation,
etc., but Minnesota's sharp drop is still a bit surprising.
One surprise to me, with all the gloom and doom talk back in Boston
about BU's struggles of late, is the fact that they have improved their
overall ranking this year. And St. Cloud hasn't jumped up too much
from last year, which I suppose shows that they were pretty good in
1996-1997, too. I think people are surprised by them because they
expected a bigger hit from losing some key players.
RPI Rank RPI Value
Team 1997 1998 Difference 1997 1998 Difference
-------------------- ---- ---- ---------- ----- ----- -------------
CCHA - league averages include No. Mich. for 1998 but not 1997
Alaska-Fairbanks 37 32 + 5 .4259 .4516 + .0257
Bowling Green 22 40 -18 .4942 .3931 - .1011
Ferris State 39 28 +11 .4168 .4783 + .0615
Lake Superior 17 23 - 5 .5255 .5225 - .0030
Miami 7 10 - 3 .5772 .5623 - .0149
Michigan 1 4 - 3 .6279 .6005 - .0274
Michigan State 13 5 + 8 .5474 .5986 + .0512
Northern Michigan 32 23 + 9 .4441 .5503 + .1062
Notre Dame 40 17 +23 .4119 .5322 + .1203
Ohio State 33 20 +13 .4425 .5282 + .0857
Western Michigan 25 35 -10 .4743 .4425 - .0318
---- ---- ---- ----- ----- -------
23.4 21.6 +1.8 .4944 .5146 + .0202
Hockey East -
Boston College 23 6 +17 .4892 .5799 + .0907
Boston University 8 3 + 5 .5772 .6179 + .0407
Maine 10 19 - 9 .5639 .5288 - .0351
Mass Amherst 35 44 - 9 .4358 .3445 - .0913
Mass Lowell 28 25 + 3 .4676 .4959 + .0283
Merrimack 26 30 - 4 .4721 .4713 - .0008
New Hampshire 3 2 + 1 .5908 .6290 + .0382
Northeastern 41 18 +23 .4048 .5311 + .1263
Providence 27 16 +11 .4695 .5380 + .0685
---- ---- ---- ----- ----- -------
22.3 18.1 +4.2 .4968 .5263 + .0295
ECAC -
Brown 36 38 - 2 .4331 .4215 - .0116
Clarkson 2 22 -20 .6001 .5227 - .0774
Colgate 19 8 +11 .5140 .5697 + .0557
Cornell 9 14 - 5 .5700 .5412 - .0288
Dartmouth 31 33 - 2 .4491 .4491 .0000
Harvard 24 26 - 2 .4746 .4826 + .0080
Princeton 16 21 - 5 .5357 .5232 - .0125
Rensselaer 15 24 - 9 .5384 .5044 - .0340
St Lawrence 29 37 - 8 .4577 .4246 - .0331
Union 18 42 -24 .5232 .3601 - .1631
Vermont 6 34 -28 .5786 .4430 - .1356
Yale 30 9 +21 .4506 .5671 + .1165
---- ---- ---- ----- ----- -------
19.6 25.7 -6.1 .5104 .4841 - .0263
WCHA - league averages include No. Mich. for 1997 but not 1998
Alaska-Anchorage 34 36 - 2 .4391 .4311 - .0080
Colorado College 11 13 - 2 .5601 .5489 - .0112
Denver 12 39 -27 .5543 .4036 - .1507
Michigan Tech 38 29 + 9 .4239 .4716 + .0477
Minnesota-Duluth 20 15 + 5 .4996 .5398 + .0402
Minnesota 5 27 -22 .5809 .4792 - .1017
North Dakota 4 1 + 3 .5882 .6363 + .0481
St Cloud 14 11 + 3 .5405 .5529 + .0124
Wisconsin 21 7 +14 .4960 .5754 + .0794
---- ---- ---- ----- ----- -------
19.1 19.8 -0.7 .5127 .5154 + .0027
Independents -
Air Force 44 45 - 1 .2856 .3320 + .0466
Army 42 41 + 1 .3749 .3749 .0000
Mankato State 43 31 +12 .3607 .4641 + .1034
Nebraska-Omaha -- 43 -- ----- .3458 -----
Ranked by Changes from 1997 to 1998 (Nebraska-Omaha not included)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Change in RPI rank Change in RPI value
---------------------------------------------------------------------
1. Northeastern + 23 1. Northeastern + .1263
Notre Dame + 23 2. Notre Dame + .1203
3. Yale + 21 3. Yale + .1165
4. Boston College + 17 4. Northern Michigan + .1062
5. Wisconsin + 14 5. Mankato State + .1034
6. Ohio State + 13 6. Boston College + .0907
7. Mankato State + 12 7. Ohio State + .0857
8. Colgate + 11 8. Wisconsin + .0794
Ferris State + 11 9. Providence + .0685
Providence + 11 10. Ferris State + .0615
11. Michigan Tech + 9 11. Colgate + .0557
Northern Michigan + 9 12. Michigan State + .0512
13. Michigan State + 8 13. North Dakota + .0481
14. Alaska-Fairbanks + 5 14. Michigan Tech + .0477
Boston University + 5 15. Air Force + .0466
Minnesota-Duluth + 5 16. Boston University + .0407
17. Mass Lowell + 3 17. Minnesota-Duluth + .0402
North Dakota + 3 18. New Hampshire + .0382
St Cloud + 3 19. Mass Lowell + .0283
20. Army + 1 20. Alaska-Fairbanks + .0257
New Hampshire + 1 21. St Cloud + .0124
22. Air Force - 1 22. Harvard - .0080
23. Alaska-Anchorage - 2 23. Army - .0000
Brown - 2 Dartmouth - .0000
Colorado College - 2 25. Merrimack - .0008
Dartmouth - 2 26. Lake Superior - .0030
Harvard - 2 27. Alaska-Anchorage - .0080
28. Miami - 3 28. Colorado College - .0112
Michigan - 3 29. Brown - .0116
30. Merrimack - 4 30. Princeton - .0125
31. Cornell - 5 31. Miami - .0149
Lake Superior - 5 32. Michigan - .0274
Princeton - 5 33. Cornell - .0288
34. St Lawrence - 8 34. Western Michigan - .0318
35. Maine - 9 35. St Lawrence - .0331
Mass Amherst - 9 36. Rensselaer - .0340
Rensselaer - 9 37. Maine - .0351
38. Western Michigan - 10 38. Clarkson - .0774
39. Bowling Green - 18 39. Mass Amherst - .0913
40. Clarkson - 20 40. Bowling Green - .1011
41. Minnesota - 22 41. Minnesota - .1017
42. Union - 24 42. Vermont - .1356
43. Denver - 27 43. Denver - .1507
44. Vermont - 28 44. Union - .1631
-------------------- ----------------------
Rick McAdoo [log in to unmask]
"Volunteer reporter" An excited BC fan. GO EAGLES!
HOCKEY-L is for discussion of college ice hockey; send information to
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