Short answer: Yep, easily.
 
Longer answer:
 
In the last PWR, Vermont won two more pairwise comparisons than Clarkson.
 
In their own comparison, Vermont beats Clarkson because while each team
gets 3 points, Vermont wins on the tie break criterion (RPI).
 
  Clarkson            vs Vermont
RPI      0.5892  0           0.5978  1
L20    15- 5- 0  1         12- 5- 3  0
TUC     8- 5- 0  0          9- 5- 2  1
H2H              1                   1
COP    15- 5- 0  1         13- 5- 3  0
===========================
PTS              3                   3
 
<source of data: USCHO PWR link -- thanks folks>
 
So, Clarkson could tie Vermont in number of pairs won by reversing this one
comparison, say, by beating the Cats at Placid (this would not only give
them an additional point H2H but could even throw TUC in their favor).
This demonstrates that Vermont's "lead" is far from insurmountable.  With
the myriad other changes that Clarkson's win would effect (not often you
get to use that word correctly), Clarkson could even move past Vermont in #
of pairs won and thus finish with a better PWR.
 
<Note: My impression is that the tie break for teams tied in # of pair wins
is *again* RPI, rather than the head-2-head pair (which makes a lot more
sense to me).  1.  Is this correct?  2.  What's the rationale?>
 
Of course, the beauty and the curse of the PWR is that the ground
underneath all teams is constantly shifting as all the other teams play,
so:
 
1.  It's possible, and it doesn't even look that difficult, for Clarkson to
overtake Vermont, but
 
2.  There's no easy way to state with certainty a path by which that
happens.
 
Now then, this brings up a question from this corner of the rogues'
gallery.  Say UVM ranks better than Clarkson *all year* and then on the
final weekend Clarkson passes them.  Does the NCAA consider UVM's
season-long ranking, or do they try to "forget", when they seed the teams?
 
My own opinion is that the PWR (or whatever rule the NCAA chooses to
announce to the coaches they are using) should be deterministic, and the
Ceramic Dalmatian shouldn't count for anything.  <Aside: I wonder if it's
time for someone to recount the Saga of the Ceramic Dalmatian for those new
to our shores...>.  Can anyone argue convincingly that a team's standing
throughout the season should be considered when the committee smokes a
brand new pack of Crayolas and exhales the seeds?
 
Greg Berge
Let's Go Red!
 
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