Back again with the ECAC Tiebreaking Bonanza! With two points separating
#1 and #4, and three points separating #5 and #8, the final weekend could
produce an even more unholy mess than usual, but at least there’s one easy
seeding we can get out of the way: regardless of what they do in their
final two games, Brown will finish last. The Bears will join Quinnipiac,
Princeton, and Yale (in some order) on the road for the first round of the
ECAC playoffs.
Going into the final weekend of league play, here's a breakdown of where
each team in the ECAC could finish. As always, I'm greatly indebted to
John Whelan's excellent playoff possibilities script at
http://slack.net/~whelan/tbrw/2006/ecac.cgiframe.shtml
For each ECAC team, I've listed the following:
THIS WEEKEND: The team's weekend games, its last two of the season.
ON THEIR OWN: The highest the team could finish with no help from the
competition. Generally, this involves a weekend sweep.
BEST CASE: The highest the team could finish if everything goes right.
WORST CASE: The lowest the team could finish if everything goes wrong.
This generally involves getting swept while teams nearby in the
standings win.
TIEBREAKERS: How the team would fare if they finished the season tied with
some other team which is currently close (i.e. within 4 points) in the
standings. Note that there may be cases in which Team A "could win or
lose" the tiebreaker against Team B, depending on whether there are
more than those two teams tied. For example, Union would win the
tiebreaker against Harvard based on head-to-head record; however, in a
three-way tie involving those two and St. Lawrence, Union would actually
be seeded below Harvard.
For two or more teams tied in the standings, the ECAC tiebreakers are:
1. Head-to-head record in ECAC games (non-conference meetings, such as in
tournaments, do not count).
2. Record against the top four teams in the conference.
3. Record against the top eight teams in the conference.
4. Goal differential (net goals) head-to-head.
5. Goal differential against the top four teams in the conference.
6. Goal differential against the top eight teams in the conference.
Though I've never seen it listed, I believe there is a seventh tiebreaker,
consisting of a coin flip between two teams or a drawing of lots among
three or more teams.
OK, here we go:
Cornell:
THIS WEEKEND: At Rensselaer, at Union.
ON THEIR OWN: Wraps up the top spot with three points on the weekend.
BEST CASE: First.
WORST CASE: Finishes fourth if they lose twice, Colgate gets at least
two points, Dartmouth beats Clarkson, Harvard sweeps, and St. Lawrence
defeats Dartmouth. This would set up a three-way tie for third place,
with the tiebreakers placing Cornell fourth.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats Colgate and St. Lawrence; could win or lose against
Dartmouth and Harvard.
Dartmouth:
THIS WEEKEND: Clarkson, St. Lawrence.
ON THEIR OWN: Clinches second with a sweep.
BEST CASE: Gets the top seed with two wins if Cornell gets no more than
two points.
WORST CASE: Drops to fifth with two losses if Colgate does not get
swept and Harvard wins twice.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats Colgate and Union; loses to St. Lawrence; could win
or lose against Cornell and Harvard.
Colgate:
THIS WEEKEND: At Union, at Rensselaer.
ON THEIR OWN: Would clinch third with three points.
BEST CASE: Finishes first with a sweep if Cornell gets no more than two
points and Dartmouth does not win twice.
WORST CASE: Falls to sixth if they lose twice, Harvard gets at least
three points against St. Lawrence and Clarkson, St. Lawrence does not
lose to Dartmouth, and Union also beats Cornell.
TIEBREAKERS: Loses to Cornell, Dartmouth, Harvard, and Union; could win
or lose against St. Lawrence.
St. Lawrence:
THIS WEEKEND: At Harvard, at Dartmouth.
ON THEIR OWN: A sweep guarantees third place.
BEST CASE: Clinches first with two wins if Cornell gets no more than
one point and Colgate does not sweep.
WORST CASE: Finishes sixth if they lose twice and Union sweeps.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats Dartmouth and Union; loses to Cornell; could win or
lose against Colgate and Harvard
Harvard:
THIS WEEKEND: St. Lawrence, Clarkson.
ON THEIR OWN: Wraps up fourth place with two wins.
BEST CASE: Gets the top seed with a sweep if Cornell and Colgate both
lose twice, and Dartmouth gets no more than one point. (This, by the
way, would make Harvard by far the worst #1 seed in ECAC history in
terms of winning percentage -- 0.614)
WORST CASE: Drops to eighth if they lose twice, Union gets at least one
point, Rensselaer sweeps, and Clarkson does not lose to Dartmouth.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats Colgate; loses to Clarkson; could win or lose
against Cornell, Dartmouth, St. Lawrence, Union, and Rensselaer.
Union:
THIS WEEKEND: Colgate, Cornell.
ON THEIR OWN: Three points would guarantee sixth place.
BEST CASE: Would finish third with a sweep if Colgate also loses to
Rensselaer, St. Lawrence loses twice, and Harvard does not beat
Clarkson.
WORST CASE: Falls to eighth if they get swept, Rensselaer gets at least
three points, and Clarkson gets at least two points.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats Colgate and Rensselaer; loses to Dartmouth and St.
Lawrence; could win or lose against Harvard and Clarkson.
Rensselaer:
THIS WEEKEND: Cornell, Colgate.
ON THEIR OWN: Finishes seventh with a sweep.
BEST CASE: Climbs to fifth with a sweep if Harvard loses twice and
Union gets no more than one point.
WORST CASE: Would drop to eighth if they lose twice and Clarkson does
not.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats Clarkson; loses to Union; could win or lose against
Harvard.
Clarkson:
THIS WEEKEND: At Dartmouth, at Harvard.
ON THEIR OWN: Has already clinched eighth and can do no better without
help.
BEST CASE: Finishes fifth with a sweep if Rensselaer does not win
twice, Harvard does not beat St. Lawrence, and Union gets no more than
two points.
WORST CASE: Eighth.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats Harvard; loses to Rensselaer; could win or lose
against Union.
Quinnipiac:
THIS WEEKEND: At Yale, at Brown.
ON THEIR OWN: Guarantees ninth place with two wins.
BEST CASE: Ninth.
WORST CASE: Drops to eleventh if they lose twice and Princeton gets at
least two points.
TIEBREAKERS: Loses to Yale; could win or lose against Princeton.
Yale:
THIS WEEKEND: Quinnipiac, Princeton.
ON THEIR OWN: Clinches ninth with a sweep.
BEST CASE: Ninth.
WORST CASE: Finishes eleventh if they lose twice.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats Quinnipiac; could win or lose against Princeton.
Princeton:
THIS WEEKEND: At Brown, at Yale.
ON THEIR OWN: Would finish tenth by beating Yale and not losing to
Brown.
BEST CASE: Climbs to ninth with a sweep if Quinnipiac gets no more than
two points.
WORST CASE: Falls to eleventh if they lose twice.
TIEBREAKERS: Could win or lose against Quinnipiac and Yale.
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