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Fri, 26 Mar 2004 07:11:34 -0600 |
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One of the advantages of the KRACH rating system is that it lets you
not only say whether one teams is better than another, but quantify
that difference, in terms of a probability that one or the other would
win a head-to-head game. I've gone through the NCAA tournament and
worked out the probability for each team of advancing to the regional
finals, Frozen Four[TM], championship game, or national title, given
their potential opponents. Here they are:
____O d d s o f w i n n i n g____
Seed ___Team___ KRACH 1 game 2 games 3 games 4 games
1M Minnesota 554.23 73.91% 43.09% 18.89% 10.33%
2M Minnesota-Duluth 503.50 70.4% 38.00% 15.82% 8.286%
3M Michigan State 211.67 29.6% 10.06% 2.429% 0.7847%
4M Notre Dame 195.67 26.09% 8.851% 2.021% 0.6198%
1E Maine 596.95 82.17% 54.12% 31.97% 15.29%
2E Ohio State 269.18 43.94% 16.51% 6.676% 2.008%
3E Wisconsin 343.45 56.06% 24.08% 11.1% 3.902%
4E Harvard 129.54 17.83% 5.283% 1.341% 0.2362%
1N Boston College 575.60 87.33% 60.95% 34.87% 16.38%
2N Michigan 274.88 55.67% 21.12% 8.387% 2.558%
3N New Hampshire 218.87 44.33% 14.73% 5.099% 1.331%
4N Niagara 83.541 12.67% 3.197% 0.5542% 0.06805%
1W North Dakota 981.84 94.59% 70.84% 48.39% 32.79%
2W Denver 397.68 64.14% 20.53% 9.704% 4.53%
3W Miami 222.32 35.86% 7.81% 2.643% 0.8811%
4W Holy Cross 56.126 5.407% 0.8198% 0.09718% 0.01132%
Credits: the KRACH ratings are based on the results of the entire
season from US College Hockey Online, and the program to calculate the
KRACH and the probabilities was written by me and run on USCHO's
server. Ken Butler first developed KRACH, which is an application to
college hockey of a method independently discovered by Zermelo and by
Bradley and Terry.
John Whelan, Cornell '91
[log in to unmask]
http://www.amurgsval.org/joe/
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