The recent discussion about probabilities in play-offs got me crunching numbers
on my calculator.  Assuming each game is independent and the favorite's
probability of winning is 70% and the underdog's is 30% the following
probabilities can result after two games:
 
         Favorite winning both games: 49.0%
         Underdog winning both games:  9.0%
                               Split: 42.0%
 
Now, involving a third game, things get more difficult as we need to rely
on the condition that the teams split the first two games, as this has to
occur.  Keeping this in mind, here are the probabilities:
 
         Favorite winning in two games:    49.0%
         Favorite winning in three games:  29.4%
         Underdog winning in two games:     9.0%
         Underdog winning in three games:  12.6%
 
or,
 
         Favorite winning series: 78.4%
         Underdog winning series: 21.6%
 
As far as the NC_$$_ goes, you'd think they support a two out of three when
there is that high a probability (42%) of a third game.  That probability
should increase as the playoffs continue (duh).  Even if the underdog only
has a 10% of winning, the probability of a third game is almost 1 in 5 (18%).
 
If you want to go to 5 games:
 
         Favorite winning in three games: 34.300%
         Favorite winning in four games:  18.522%
         Favorite winning in five games:  30.870%
                         Favorite winning series:  83.692%
         Underdog winning in three games:  2.700%
         Underdog winning in four games:   5.670%
         Underdog winning in five games:   7.938%
                         Underdog winning series:  16.308%
 
So this talk about lengthing series, in order to ensure the top teams
advance, has some merit.
 
Finally, I'd like to say thanks to the many postees on the list.  I have been
a reader since last November, but this is my first post.  I live in a place
that provides little pro hockey coverage and absolutely none on college
hockey.  You've kept a displaced Maine fan very informed.  Again, thanks.
 
Patrick T. Berends
Dept. of Ag. Economics
Kansas State University