I don't think there were any huge surprises in the seedings, both a tribute
to the good work done by the committee IMO and a tribute to the worthwhile
discussion we've had here on the subject.
 
First, the selection show was a waste of an hour.  They didn't tackle any of
the tough questions despite having access to at least three of the four
committee members.  Too bad.  It was nice to get all the different coaches on
to talk about their teams, but there wasn't enough time to do a good enough
analysis of all the matchups.
 
Anyway, there were only two situations that weren't really a surprise but
were probably the toughest decisions the committee had to make.  I had all
the seeds right except for these two, although I noted to Erik that there
was the potential for these two outcomes.  I am referring to NMU getting
the 4th seed over MSU, and UNH getting the 3rd seed over BU.
 
1) NMU-MSU
MSU had the edge in win%, strength of schedule, and RPI.  But these weren't
huge edges.  NMU did have the edge in CommOpp, record in last 10, record
in last 15, and record vs the other teams among the top 12.  In addition,
winning the WCHA tourney may have also played a part as Laing Kennedy
mentioned "postseason performance" as a consideration; it does not look like
NMU would have been seeded higher than 5th had it not won the tourney.
 
Had MSU beaten LSSU in the CCHA semifinal, the CommOpp factor would have swung
to MSU.  And had they gone on to win the CCHA tourney, the last 10/last 15
factors would have also swung to MSU and I'd expect they would have gotten the
nod over NMU.  (Though LSSU would have then gotten the 5th seed anyway.)
 
2) UNH-BU
BU had the edge in win% (large) and RPI (small), but UNH had the edge in
strength of schedule, last 10, last 15, and CommOpp.  Head-to-head was even.
Fears that Parker would jockey to get his team seeded ahead of UNH did not
come to pass.  BU's early exit from the HE tourney likely hurt them too.
 
LSSU's Jeff Jackson seemed upset that winning the CCHA title did not get
his team a bye, but the numbers just were against them too much.  He
suggested that this meant that the committee didn't care about the CCHA
tourney.  That's ridiculous.  He should think more about some of the games
his team lost during the season and the effect that those had.
 
On to Providence and Detroit.  Quite a few interesting matchups and potentially
interesting matchups.  Some folks may say they wanted to intentionally set
up certain matchups (MSU-BU winner gets Maine, etc.) but I do not think this
entered into play.  Almost any matchup would have been interesting (say, if
NMU had been sent East instead to play BU and then Maine).
 
Perhaps the most interesting thing is that LSSU gets the independent AGAIN!
That makes four times in the last five tourneys that the independent has to
go through LSSU, who has never dropped an NC$$ series with an independent.
This year's matchup should be a good one, though.  Anyone who underestimates
UAA can expect to watch the next round from home.
 
Finally, Wisconsin's win over CC sealed their bid over Providence.  Had they
lost to CC, it would have been VERY close (and it was close as it was).
---
Mike Machnik    [log in to unmask]   mikem@{beanpot,bubba}.ma30.bull.com