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Subject:
From:
Robin Lock <[log in to unmask]>
Reply To:
College Hockey discussion list <[log in to unmask]>
Date:
Mon, 16 Mar 1992 23:17:05 EDT
Content-Type:
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With apologies to Erik Biever - who did all the work. I'd like to offer a
Modified Rating Percentage Index for College Hockey (MRPICH).
 
The only change is to adjust the weights slightly to put 40% on a team's
winning percentage, keep 40% on the average opponent's winning percentage
and reduce the opponents'-opponents' percentage factor to 20% (as opposed
to the 20%-40%-40% split in RPICH).  I would be interested if anyone knows
of a theoretical basis for the 20-40-40 weights - having 80% of the weight
based on WHO you play and only about 20% on HOW you play seems a bit extreme
to me.  Others might want to go even further than 40-40-20 which is used for
the rankings below.  However, barring major suprises in the CCHA and WCHA
final weekends - I'll bet there's a good chance that the top 12 MRPICH teams
below are the 12 which make the NCAA playoffs.
 
Note: I do not intend to add this as a regular installment to our alphabet
soup of rating systems, but thought some list readers might be interested
in it as a one shot look.
 
Three sets of rankings are given, based on the straight won-loss-tie pct. (WL)
and both the RPICH (RP) and MRPICH (MRP).
 
 WL  RP MRP              Gms    W  L T    PCT   Opp%   O-Opp% RPICH MRPICH
  1  1  1 Maine           34   29- 3-2   0.882  0.508  0.508  0.583  0.658
  3  2  2 Minnesota       41   32- 9-0   0.780  0.530  0.512  0.573  0.627
  2  3  3 Michigan        40   30- 7-3   0.788  0.519  0.518  0.572  0.626
  4  7  4 Alaska-Anchor.  29   21- 7-1   0.741  0.506  0.479  0.542  0.595
  7  4  5 Lake Superior   36   23- 9-4   0.694  0.523  0.522  0.557  0.591
  6  6  6 Boston Univer.  33   21- 8-4   0.697  0.499  0.516  0.545  0.582
  9  5  7 Michigan State  38   21- 9-8   0.658  0.532  0.522  0.553  0.580
  5 12  8 St Lawrence     31   22- 8-1   0.726  0.476  0.492  0.532  0.579
 11  8  9 New Hampshire   36   22-12-2   0.639  0.532  0.499  0.540  0.568
 10  9 10 Wisconsin       37   23-12-2   0.649  0.509  0.513  0.539  0.566
 13 11 11 Northern Mich.  38   22-13-3   0.618  0.513  0.515  0.535  0.555
  8 16 12 Clarkson        30   20- 9-1   0.683  0.457  0.492  0.516  0.554
 14 10 13 Providence      36   21-13-2   0.611  0.517  0.516  0.535  0.554
 12 13 14 Harvard         27   14- 7-6   0.630  0.503  0.487  0.522  0.551
 15 18 15 Yale            26   12- 7-7   0.596  0.486  0.487  0.509  0.530
 19 14 16 Miami           38   17-15-6   0.526  0.516  0.516  0.518  0.520
 18 15 17 Western Mich.   36   16-14-6   0.528  0.510  0.517  0.516  0.519
 16 26 18 Cornell         29   14-11-4   0.552  0.480  0.477  0.493  0.508
 20 19 19 Colorado Coll.  39   18-16-5   0.526  0.488  0.510  0.504  0.507
 25 17 20 Boston College  35   14-18-3   0.443  0.560  0.507  0.515  0.503
 17 30 21 Vermont         30   15-12-3   0.550  0.459  0.483  0.487  0.500
 24 22 22 North Dakota    39   17-21-1   0.449  0.512  0.515  0.501  0.487
 26 21 23 Ferris State    38   13-18-7   0.434  0.521  0.516  0.502  0.485
 21 28 24 RPI             32   13-15-4   0.469  0.503  0.480  0.487  0.485
 27 24 25 Minn.-Duluth    37   15-20-2   0.432  0.513  0.511  0.496  0.480
 31 23 26 Michigan Tech   38   15-22-1   0.408  0.535  0.512  0.500  0.480
 38 20 27 UMass-Lowell    32    9-19-4   0.344  0.578  0.506  0.502  0.470
 34 25 28 Ohio State      38   12-21-5   0.382  0.532  0.515  0.495  0.468
 22 34 29 Princeton       27   12-14-1   0.463  0.466  0.477  0.470  0.467
 33 27 30 St Cloud        35   13-21-1   0.386  0.514  0.513  0.488  0.463
 32 33 31 Brown           30   10-16-4   0.400  0.512  0.477  0.475  0.460
 35 31 32 Northeastern    32   12-20-0   0.375  0.521  0.505  0.485  0.459
 37 29 33 Ill.-Chicago    36   10-20-6   0.361  0.520  0.517  0.487  0.456
 23 39 34 Alaska-Fairb.   31   14-17-0   0.452  0.451  0.467  0.458  0.455
 28 35 35 Colgate         29   12-16-1   0.431  0.462  0.482  0.464  0.453
 29 37 36 Kent            26   10-14-2   0.423  0.469  0.479  0.464  0.452
 39 32 37 Bowling Green   34    8-21-5   0.309  0.532  0.523  0.484  0.441
 36 38 38 Merrimack       33   12-21-0   0.364  0.471  0.501  0.461  0.434
 30 40 39 Ala.-Huntsville 19    8-11-0   0.421  0.424  0.475  0.444  0.433
 41 36 40 Denver          36    9-25-2   0.278  0.509  0.511  0.464  0.417
 40 42 41 Notre Dame      27    8-19-0   0.296  0.408  0.470  0.410  0.376
 43 41 42 Dartmouth       26    3-21-2   0.154  0.493  0.481  0.420  0.355
 45 43 43 Union           24    2-21-1   0.104  0.475  0.483  0.404  0.328
 42 45 44 Air Force       26    4-22-0   0.154  0.383  0.459  0.367  0.306
 44 44 45 Army            18    2-16-0   0.111  0.414  0.456  0.370  0.301
 
Results are based on the 3-15-92 RPICH data supplied by Erik.
 
Robin Lock
St. LAwrence University
(One might detect an not so subtle bias in offering this by comparing
how SLU and other ECAC teams fare under the three rankings)

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